With plenty of extra time on all of our hands and the 2020 NFL Draft approaching this week, I figured I would dust off the ol' sports blog and do a couple different exercises to kill some time. The NFL Draft is one of my favorite events every year because I'm a Detroit Lions fan, and as the cliche goes, the Draft is our Super Bowl.More than anything I'm an eternal optimist who dabbles in reality, so while I'm always hopeful that the Lions will do the right thing and it will translate into success on the field, I also know the reality that building a contending NFL team is incredibly hard. It's even harder to build a contender with staying power. Just ask the Los Angeles Rams, who've jettisoned a number of the stars of their Super Bowl LIII team.
So you may be asking yourself what these "exercises" are that I'm going to post on the blog. Primarily for my own enjoyment but also to let people see my thoughts (no pun intended) and potentially drive some discussion either here on the blog or elsewhere on social media, I will be doing some mock drafts in a couple different formats.
Each day this week leading up to the NFL Draft on Thursday I will be posting a mock draft scenario in an attempt to see what players and situations could be available for the Lions in all 7 rounds of this year's draft. I will be doing three different mocks drafts using two different websites' draft simulators. What I'm attempting to do is play out three different scenarios for the Lions, pretend like I'm Lions General Manager Bob Quinn, and draft players that fill out both Detroit's short and long-term needs.
I'll be doing these three mocks using two different websites - The Draft Network and Pro Football Focus - because in two of the scenarios I'll be trading out of the #3 overall pick, and while I prefer TDN's mock draft simulator for ease of use I can't do trades on their site without paying for a subscription. PFF's mock draft simulator is entirely free and allows for trades, so I'll be using PFF for the two scenarios where I trade out of the 3-spot.
The schedule of things I'll be posting this week is below.
Monday (4/20): Scenario #1 - Staying at Pick #3
Tuesday (4/21): Scenario #2 - Trading Down to #5 with Miami
Wednesday (4/22) Scenario #3 - Trading Down to #6 with Los Angeles
Thursday (4/23): The Official 2020 Keck Thoughts Mock Draft
I think it's worth reinforcing that the mock draft I post on Thursday is what I think will happen, not what I want to happen or would do if I were GM.
Some ground rules for how I'll be performing these mock drafts:
- As I will be cosplaying as Bob Quinn in these exercises I will be trying to put myself in Bob's shoes and do what I think he would do (as much as I can). To that point I'll get this out of the way now and tell you I will not be drafting Tua Tagovailoa in any of these scenarios because I simply do not believe the Lions will be taking him this weekend for a variety of reasons.
- Due to the nature of these mock draft simulators being an algorithm and subject to randomness, let's keep in mind that some players may fall in these simulations and be available to me when they probably won't be available for Detroit in real-life. Each site also has their own rankings for the players in the draft, so there will be some variance in that alone. But I'm taking each of these drafts one at a time, as they are, so if a guy like Javon Kinlaw somehow falls to me in the 2nd round in one of these mocks, I won't be passing on him just because I think it's unrealistic for him to fall that far.
- As part of the exercise I will be doing my best to address the needs of the Detroit Lions' roster. After consulting multiple websites to see what they believe Detroit's needs are, I compiled a list and tweaked it a smidge with my own thoughts on what their needs are to give myself a final "Team Needs" list that I'll do my best to address. Positions have been listed in order of most-needed to least-need, and that list of Team Needs will be listed with each scenario as a refresher and so we can see how well (or how poorly) I did in addressing those needs.
I think we all know that mock drafts are typically fruitless endeavors and usually land somewhere between being 10% to 20% correct since there are just so many variables and random things that can happen in a draft. But as I said, this is for fun. So I'm not worried about my accuracy being judged too harshly.
Ok! Now that THAT long introduction is done, let's get to the mocking!
DETROIT LIONS MOCK DRAFT SCENARIO #1: Staying at #3
Team Needs: Edge/DI, CB, OG, WR, RB, OT, LB, TE, S, P, QB
(Note: I intended to include a screen grab of all of the selections I made using The Draft Network's mock simulator, but as I've run into a few times now, when I had to search for the player I took in the 7th round the website froze after I made my pick, so I was unable to make said screen grab. Scout's honor that these were the picks I made in this order.)
Round 1 (Pick #3): Jeffrey Okudah, CB, Ohio State
Joe Burrow and Chase Young went #1 and #2, respectively, in this mock simulation. And since I wasn't doing any trades in this scenario I went with the player most people believe will be the Lions' selection: Ohio State's Jeffrey Okudah. Okudah should be able to fill the hole left by Detroit trading Darius Slay to Philadelphia. Desmond Trufant is a decent signing if he can stay healthy but Okudah would be the heir to Slay as the guy Matt Patricia can put on a team's WR1 all game.
Round 2 (Pick #35): A.J. Epenesa, DE, Iowa
In the 2nd round my hope was to address Detroit's need on the defensive line. Guys like K'Lavon Chaisson and Yetur Gross-Matos were taken at #16 and #23 respectively, allowing Epenesa to fall to me at #35. I can see the argument that getting someone on the interior of the defensive line is perhaps a bigger need but I feel Epenesa is a 1st-round talent who fits the Trey Flowers mold in Detroit's scheme. He can help set the edge and get to the QB. And speaking of Flowers, considering how often Patricia likes to move him to the middle of the line on passing downs, Patricia could put both Flowers and Epenesa on the field at the same time in passing situations. To me that is better than taking a 2-down defensive tackle at this spot.
Also worth noting that other options I passed up on thinking I could get one of them or someone similar in a later round included Georgia RB D'Andre Swift, Wisconsin RB Jonathan Taylor, Utah State QB Jordan Love, Boise State OT Ezra Cleveland, Wisconsin LB Zach Baun, TCU DT Ross Blacklock, and Alabama LB Terrell Lewis. Ultimately of this group only Love was left in the 3rd, so I did miss out on some guys I wanted.
Plenty of wide receivers were also available and I felt good about getting one or more of Jalen Reagor (TCU), Brandon Aiyuk (Ariz St), KJ Hamler (Penn St), Michael Pittman (USC), Laviska Shenault (Colorado), Tee Higgins (Clemson), Donovan Peoples-Jones (Michigan), Chase Claypool (Notre Dame), Bryce Edwards (S. Carolina), Van Jefferson (Florida) or K.J. Hill (Ohio St.) later in the draft.
Round 3 (Pick #67): Justin Madubuike, Texas A&T, DT
At the first of Detroit's third round picks I had a plethora of options staring me in the face. Jordan Love was still on the board, Lenoir-Rhyne safety Kyle Duggar, Alabama CB Trevon Diggs, Florida State RB Cam Akers, Virginia CB Bryce Hall, Connecticut OT Matthew Peart, and Donovan Peoples-Jones and Chase Claypool were still available, too.
It took some deliberation for me but ultimately I decided I needed to address the defensive line interior and went with Madubuike, who will probably be able to step in from day one and be a part of the DT rotation along with Da'Shawn Hand, Danny Shelton, and Nick Williams. As Bob Quinn said in his teleconference with the media last week, Detroit is looking for players who are better able to hit the ground running since there most likely won't be any summer training programs or even a training camp. At this point in the draft I've now addressed my top three needs with a CB, an Edge defender and a DT. I still need a guard and a WR before I've addressed my top 5 needs.
Round 3 (Pick #85): Chase Claypool, WR/TE, Notre Dame
With my second pick in the third round there were plenty of wide receivers available like Peoples-Jones, Bryce Edwards, Van Jefferson, and K.J. Hill, as well as running backs I liked like Memphis' Antonio Gibson, Utah's Zack Moss, Appalachian State's Darrynton Evans and Boston College's A.J. Dillon. I also had some other targets available like Michigan guard Ben Bredeson, UConn's Peart, and Utah edge Bradlee Anae, but ultimately taking Claypool was an example of a player falling further than I expected him to and not being able to pass up the value.
The fact Claypool addresses one of my biggest remaining needs was just gravy. He's not the fastest player and doesn't make the smoothest cuts in his routes, but he's big and can go up and get the ball just like Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay. Some people have compared Claypool to a Travis Kelce-type of receiver. Put Claypool on the field along with Jones, Golladay and T.J. Hockenson and you'll be forcing the defense pick their poison.
Round 4 (Pick #109): Bradlee Anae, Edge, Utah
Anae is a player who has long been connected to the Lions due to their experience with him during the Senior Bowl (where Anae tallied 3 sacks), along with additional "visits" during the pre-draft process. He'd be a fit for the Lions scheme as a Jack linebacker, nominally being used to replace Devon Kennard as a pass rusher but also needing to play some coverage.
While I had already addressed the Edge position earlier by selecting A.J. Epenesa, I felt getting a guy like Anae to further bolster an anemic pass rush was more important than adding a RB or another DT. To that point, players who I debated taking included running backs Zack Moss, Darrynton Evans, AJ Dillon and UCLA's Joshua Kelley; defensive tackles Leki Fotu (Utah), McTelvin Agim (Arkansas), and Jason Strowbridge (UNC, another player the Lions coaches got Senior Bowl experience with); and Michigan's Ben Bredeson was still on the board and I took the chance that I'd be able to snag him with one of my two 5th round picks. (I would be wrong about that.)
Round 5 (Pick #149): Joshua Kelley, RB, UCLA
Immediately after taking Anae in the fourth round I started to wonder if I had made a mistake somewhere along the way because all my other target hopefuls started flying off the board. Moss, Evans, Fotu, Agim, Strowbridge, Dillon, Bredeson, all taken in the 40 picks between my fourth round pick and my first fifth round pick.
I still needed to address OG and RB, and frankly none of the remaining guards inspired a ton of hope in me. But there was one RB left I felt fit with Detroit, and that's partially because the coaching staff got to have hands-on experience with him at the Senior Bowl. So I took Joshua Kelley to add to the RB stable in the hopes he can be part of a nice rotation with Kerryon Johnson and Bo Scarbrough.
Round 5 (Pick #166): Geno Stone, S, Iowa
It was at this point in the draft I started really looking under rocks because all the guys I would've targeted were long gone. And while I don't think safety is a particularly huge need for Detroit, I know Patricia likes to employ 3-safety sets fairly often and Stone is a guy who grades out quite well analytically even if his athleticism doesn't jump off the charts. Bill Belichick and his disciples, like Quinn, are fans of players from Iowa - see T.J. Hockenson - so I'm confident that Quinn would have no hesitation in picking up Stone at this point in the draft.
Round 6 (Pick #182): Cameron Clark, OL, Charlotte
All the interior offensive line targets I had in mind were taken off the board rounds ago, so at this point I opted to just take the best offensive lineman left on the board which was Charlotte's Cameron Clark, a prospect who could compete with Kenny Wiggins for playing time right away, though is more likely to be a backup combo guard/tackle for Detroit.
Round 7 (Pick #235): Braden Mann, P, Texas A&M
Rounding things out I opted to take a punter considering Detroit let Sam Martin walk in free agency, and it's been commonplace to see Lions media members predict Quinn to draft a punter. Braden Mann is the best of the bunch in this year's draft, he was on the Lion's North team in the Senior Bowl, it all adds up. Though honestly if Detroit wants Mann they'll probably need to take him in the 5th round as that's been a popular round for teams to dip into the special teams waters of late. As a matter of act, the Seattle Seahawks drafted their punter, Michael Dickson, with pick 149 two years ago, which just so happens to be the same spot as Detroit's second pick in the 5th round this year.
OVERVIEW
On the whole I'm not displeased with how this mock turned out. I addressed Detroit's largest needs at cornerback and defensive line, plus I added a receiver late in the 3rd round who could very well become an immediate contributor. I'm not totally in love with the Day 3 picks later in the simulation, but I do believe Stone is a player who could actually end up in Honolulu Blue, and Mann fills another need of importance to this coaching staff. My biggest regret is not addressing the offensive line earlier as I do believe the right side of the offensive line could use some reinforcements. That all said, if Detroit isn't able to trade down out of the #3 spot on Thursday, I think this would be a pretty accurate and successful draft for Detroit.
Now let's see how we do by trading down in the first round and picking up some extra draft capital!
COMING TOMORROW: Scenario #2 - Trading Down with Miami at #5
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