The Keck Thoughts 2020 NFL Mock Draft

Alright you hooligans, let's do this. All week I've been doing mock draft exercises utilizing the mock draft simulators on The Draft Network and on Pro Football Focus's websites, seeing what various scenarios we could potentially see if the Detroit Lions were to stay put at the 3rd overall pick, if they were to trade down to the 5th overall pick with the Miami Dolphins, and if they traded down to the #6 pick with the Los Angeles Chargers.

Today I focus solely on the the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft and predict what I think WILL happen. As we've already covered this is a fruitless endeavor because there are just SO many variables in reality, but this is for fun and games.

One more time: these are my predictions for where I think teams will pick players. I'm going to project trades that I think are likely/possible to happen. I don't like doing mock drafts that don't incorporate trades because trades do happen and happen with some frequency in reality.

Originally I had planned to do a little write-up for each pick giving my rationale but I've run out of time, so instead I'll briefly discuss why I have the Lions taking Jeffrey Okudah at #5.

There has been so much smoke throughout the entire pre-draft process, and somewhere in that smoke I believe there's fire. My belief is that Miami has ALWAYS had their eye on Tua Tagovailoa. I think they've done a fine job of obfuscating their true intentions, and ultimately they'll pull the trigger on dealing with Detroit to move up to #3. I do not believe they'll part with any of their other 1st-round picks. Instead I think they'll swap 1st's with Detroit and give up their 2nd round pick, which would be pick #39. Maybe I'm wrong, but I believe that to be the most realistic move, and I do think Miami trades up.

With Detroit moving down to #5, I think Ohio State cornerback Jeffrey Okudah is #1 on Bob Quinn's board. There's been scuttlebutt that the coaching staff prefers Derrick Brown, but I think Quinn knows how much more valuable a lockdown corner like Okudah provides and won't bring himself to pass Okudah over for Brown, however good Brown may be.

With all of that said, let's get to it! If I hit on even five of these picks I'll be thrilled.

KECK THOUGHTS 2020 NFL MOCK DRAFT

#1.) Cincinnati Bengals - Joe Burrow, QB, LSU

#2.) Washington Redskins - Chase Young, Edge, Ohio State

#3.) Miami Dolphins (trade with Detroit) - Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama

#4.) New York Giants - Tristans Wirfs, OT, Iowa

#5.) Detroit Lions (trade with Miami) - Jeffrey Okudah, CB, Ohio State

#6.) Los Angeles Chargers - Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon

#7.) Carolina Panthers - Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn

#8.) Arizona Cardinals - Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia

#9.) Atlanta Falcons (trade with Jacksonville Jaguars) - C.J. Henderson, CB, Florida

#10.) Miami Dolphins (trade with Cleveland Browns) - Jedrick Wills, OT, Alabama

#11.) New York Jets - Mekhi Becton, OT, Loiusville

#12.) Las Vegas Raiders - CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma

#13.) San Francisco 49ers - Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama

#14.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Josh Jones, OT, Houston

#15.) Denver Broncos - Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama

#16.) Jacksonville Jaguars (trade with Atlanta) - Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina

#17.) Dallas Cowboys - Cesar Ruiz, C, Michigan

#18.) Cleveland Browns (trade with Miami) - Ezra Cleveland, OT, Boise State

#19.) Las Vegas Raiders - Isaiah Simmons, LB/S, Clemson

#20.) Jacksonville Jaguars - K'Lavon Chaisson, Edge, LSU

#21.) Philadelphia Eagles - Brandon Aiyuk, WR, Arizona State

#22.) Minnesota Vikings - Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU

#23.) New England Patriots - Xavier McKinney, S, Alabama

#24.) New Orleans Saints - Patrick Queen, LB, LSU

#25.) Minnesota Vikings - Jaylon Jefferson, CB, Utah

#26.) Miami Dolphins - A.J. Epenesa, Edge, Iowa

#27.) Seattle Seahawks - Yetur Gross-Matos, Edge, Penn State

#28.) Baltimore Ravens - Zack Baun, Edge/LB, Wisconsin

#29.) Tennessee Titans - Isaiah Wilson, OT, Georgia

#30.) Green Bay Packers - Denzel Mims, WR, Baylor

#31.) San Francisco 49ers - Trevon Diggs, CB, Alabama

#32.) Kansas City Chiefs - Jeff Gladney, CB, TCU

Mocking the Detroit Lions 2020 Draft - Scenario #3: Trading Down With Los Angeles

Continuing my Detroit Lions 2020 Mock Draft exercise, where each day this week leading up to the NFL Draft on Thursday I am doing three different mocks drafts using two different websites' draft simulators. A reminder that what I'm attempting to do is play out three different scenarios for the Lions, pretend like I'm Lions General Manager Bob Quinn, and draft players that fill out both Detroit's short and long-term needs.

I'm doing these three mocks using two different websites - The Draft Network and Pro Football Focus - because in two of the scenarios I'll be trading out of the #3 overall pick, and while I prefer TDN's mock draft simulator for ease of use I can't do trades on their site without paying for a subscription. PFF's mock draft simulator is entirely free and allows for trades, so I'll be using PFF for the two scenarios where I trade out of the 3-spot.

The remaining schedule of things I'll be posting this week is below.

Today (4/22) Scenario #3 - Trading Down to #6 with Los Angeles

Thursday (4/23): The Official 2020 Keck Thoughts Mock Draft

I think it's worth reinforcing that the mock draft I post on Thursday is what I think will happen, not what I want to happen or would do if I were GM.

Some ground rules for how I'll be performing these mock drafts: 

- As I will be cosplaying as Bob Quinn in these exercises I will be trying to put myself in Bob's shoes and do what I think he would do (as much as I can). To that point I'll get this out of the way now and tell you I will not be drafting Tua Tagovailoa in any of these scenarios because I simply do not believe the Lions will be taking him this weekend for a variety of reasons.

- Due to the nature of these mock draft simulators being an algorithm and subject to randomness, let's keep in mind that some players may fall in these simulations and be available to me when they probably won't be available for Detroit in real-life. Each site also has their own rankings for the players in the draft, so there will be some variance in that alone. But I'm taking each of these drafts one at a time, as they are, so if a guy like Javon Kinlaw somehow falls to me in the 2nd round in one of these mocks, I won't be passing on him just because I think it's unrealistic for him to fall that far.

- As part of the exercise I will be doing my best to address the needs of the Detroit Lions' roster. After consulting multiple websites to see what they believe Detroit's needs are, I compiled a list and tweaked it a smidge with my own thoughts on what their needs are to give myself a final "Team Needs" list that I'll do my best to address. Positions have been listed in order of most-needed to least-need, and that list of Team Needs will be listed with each scenario as a refresher and so we can see how well (or how poorly) I did in addressing those needs.

Ok! Now that THAT long introduction is done, let's get to the mocking!

DETROIT LIONS MOCK DRAFT SCENARIO #2: Trading Down with Miami

Team Needs: Edge/DI, CB, OG, WR, RB, OT, LB, TE, S, P, QB

Draft Results: 

Round 1 (Pick #6 - from LA Chargers): Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn

To get our third situation started I went in knowing I'd be looking to trade with the Los Angeles Chargers. Once again Joe Burrow and Chase Young ended up going 1-2 as expected. Then just as I hoped and need the Chargers actually came calling because they wanted to trade up for Tua Tagovailoa. Reminder that in PFF's simulator you can make up to 3 offers to a team before trade talks die, and I have had teams reject offers from me in the past. In Tuesday's exercise where we traded with Miami I got a little greedy and made the deal a little bigger than will probably actually happen (if a trade-down does happen for Detroit), so today I opted to go on the conservative side. So in the end the deal ended up being Detroit's #3 pick for Los Angeles's #6 and their 3rd round pick, #71. This isn't a phenomenal haul for Quinn, but it's probably realistic. Wouldn't surprise me in the least if the best offer for the 3rd pick is a single Day Two selection. 

So with the trade agreed to, LA moved up and took Tagovailoa, then the Giants took Jeffrey Okudah (who's been our pick the last two exercises), and in what may be closer to reality than we realize the Dolphins took an offensive tackle at #5, selecting Alabama's Jedrick Wills. Which left me to choose between Clemson jack-of-all-trades Isaiah Simmons and Derrick Brown. I opted for Brown simply because of the increasing sentiment among some Detroit media that the Lions love Brown and would like to add him to their thin defensive line. It also makes this exercise a quite a bit different than the previous two, so I'm down for that.

Round 2 (Pick #35): Cesar Ruiz, C/G, Michigan

Considering we didn't get Jeffrey Okudah in this particular mock I was hoping to be able to address that position in the 2nd round. Alas, 4 CBs went in the 8 picks before mine, with 6 CBs total going in the 1st round. That is a very possible scenario come Thursday.

So with all my top CB targets off the board as well as one of my favored Edge targets in Wisconsin's Zach Baun, I found myself deciding between Michigan center Cesar Ruiz and Arizona State wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. Seeing as WR is much deeper in this year's draft class I opted to take the best interior lineman on the board in Ruiz. While he mainly played center for the Wolverines, Ruiz did play guard for a season and should be able to immediately step into either starting guard role for Detroit.

Round 3 (Pick #67): Josh Uche, Edge, Michigan

Yet another run on cornerbacks happened before my pick. This time 5 CBs were in taken within the 10 picks before mine, including 4 in a row at one point. While plenty  of skill position players like Chase Claypool, J.K. Dobbins, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire were available I felt like I still needed to address Detroit's dearth of a pass rush. With Uche sitting atop the board it was a no-brainer for me. Now we've addressed the defensive line twice, leaving cornerback as our top remaining need and then depth at every other position.

Round 3 (Pick #71 - from Los Angeles): Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, LSU

Taking advantage of the surplus 3rd-round pick I wanted to target a skill position to give Matthew Stafford another weapon. Dobbins and Edwards-Helaire were both on the board at this point, and both because I think Edwards-Helaire would be a fascinating weapon for Darrell Bevell and because we took Dobbins in yesterday's exercise I chose to go with the Tiger running back this time.

Round 3 (Pick #85): Amik Robertson, CB, Louisiana Tech

At this juncture there were still some running backs on the board I maybe could waited for in Utah's Zack Moss and Florida State's Cam Akers. I wouldn't be surprised to see either of those guys available at this point in the real draft this weekend nor would I be surprised to see Detroit take one of them. Kerryon Johnson has missed significant time due to injuries in both of his pro seasons, and Bo Scarbrough is still a question mark.

Regardless, I had plenty of options at this pick. Linemen like LSU guard Damien Lewis, TCU tackle Lucas Niang, Alabama DT Raekwon Davis, Michigan State edge Kenny Willekes were all available. Ultimately I figured there was plenty of depth at the line positions and I had yet to address my need at CB so I went with Amik Robertson, who's shorter than the Lions prefer but should be able to step in from day one and provide depth in the secondary.

Round 4 (Pick #109): Logan Wilson, LB, Wyoming

Here's a case of a player I truly don't think will be available at this pick in reality, but Wilson would be a really nice addition to the Lions' linebacker corps. His overall production at Wyoming stands out and he has traits that would make him an immediate rotational player like Jahlani Tavai was last season (but quicker).

Round 5 (Pick #149): Reggie Robinson II, CB, Tulsa

Seeing as I still wasn't entirely happy with how I had been able to address the secondary in this mock I opted to double dip at the position and grab a CB who fits more along the physical traits Patricia likes in his corners, as well as a guy who can play both man-press and zone coverages. I like my chances that one of Robinson or Robertson will be a pick that hits.

Round 5 (Pick #166): Jason Strowbridge, DT, UNC

I took Strowbridge in yesterday's mock and considering he was the best available lineman on the board in this mock I decided he worked this time for the same reasons he did yesterday. Now through five rounds I've added three defensive linemen, two cornerbacks, an offensive lineman who'll start somewhere on the o-line immediately, a running back who'll be in the starting rotation immediately, and a promising linebacker. The only pressing need I haven't addressed is wide receiver...

Round 6 (Pick #182): James Proche, WR, SMU

And now I've addressed wide receiver. Proche is another player I doubt will fall this far in reality, but if he does it just speaks to the depth at wide receiver this year. Proche isn't a known name to most football fans but there are a number of analysts who have pegged him as a mid-to-late round gem. May as well take a flier on him in my mock at this point to fill that WR need.

Round 7 (Pick #235): Anthony McFarland, RB, Maryland

With my final pick I took another dip in the running back pool and snagged a player who has flashed great potential in college but also underwhelmed on the whole. McFarland certainly has traits that could prove valuable in the pro game, and the hope here would be that he adds to the running back depth with the potential for more. Just another flier worth taking this late in the draft instead of me taking Braden Mann or a project QB like I have in the previous scenarios.

OVERVIEW

Ultimately as this exercise shows, if the Lions miss out on Jeffrey Okudah and then don't trade up to get another first round pick, there's a very good shot they miss out on all the best cornerbacks in this year's draft. I'm not the biggest proponent of taking Derrick Brown with a Top 6 pick even though I admit he'd fit a big need. If Detroit did trade down and somehow missed out on Okudah my hope would be that they trade back again and accumulate even more picks, because not having additional picks in the 2nd round in this mock makes this haul decidedly less rosy than the previous two mocks. Overall this mock's results are solid but not spectacular, and I feel if Quinn and Patricia have any hope of keeping their jobs past this season they need to hit some home runs instead of stand-up doubles.

COMING TOMORROW: The Official Keck Thoughts 2020 NFL Mock Draft!

Mocking the Detroit Lions 2020 Draft - Scenario #2: Trading Down With Miami

Hey folks! First and foremost thank you to the handful of you who read even a little bit of yesterday's post where I started this mock draft exercise. I hope you found it somewhat enjoyable/informative. If you didn't, I apologize and suggest you stop reading this post right now because it's going to be more of the same! 

As I explained in the first post yesterday, each day this week leading up to the NFL Draft on Thursday I will be doing three different mocks drafts using two different websites' draft simulators. What I'm attempting to do is play out three different scenarios for the Lions, pretend like I'm Lions General Manager Bob Quinn, and draft players that fill out both Detroit's short and long-term needs.

I'll be doing these three mocks using two different websites - The Draft Network and Pro Football Focus - because in two of the scenarios I'll be trading out of the #3 overall pick, and while I prefer TDN's mock draft simulator for ease of use I can't do trades on their site without paying for a subscription. PFF's mock draft simulator is entirely free and allows for trades, so I'll be using PFF for the two scenarios where I trade out of the 3-spot.

The remaining schedule of things I'll be posting this week is below.

Tuesday (4/21): Scenario #2 - Trading Down to #5 with Miami

Wednesday (4/22) Scenario #3 - Trading Down to #6 with Los Angeles

Thursday (4/23): The Official 2020 Keck Thoughts Mock Draft

I think it's worth reinforcing that the mock draft I post on Thursday is what I think will happen, not what I want to happen or would do if I were GM.

Some ground rules for how I'll be performing these mock drafts: 

- As I will be cosplaying as Bob Quinn in these exercises I will be trying to put myself in Bob's shoes and do what I think he would do (as much as I can). To that point I'll get this out of the way now and tell you I will not be drafting Tua Tagovailoa in any of these scenarios because I simply do not believe the Lions will be taking him this weekend for a variety of reasons.

- Due to the nature of these mock draft simulators being an algorithm and subject to randomness, let's keep in mind that some players may fall in these simulations and be available to me when they probably won't be available for Detroit in real-life. Each site also has their own rankings for the players in the draft, so there will be some variance in that alone. But I'm taking each of these drafts one at a time, as they are, so if a guy like Javon Kinlaw somehow falls to me in the 2nd round in one of these mocks, I won't be passing on him just because I think it's unrealistic for him to fall that far.

- As part of the exercise I will be doing my best to address the needs of the Detroit Lions' roster. After consulting multiple websites to see what they believe Detroit's needs are, I compiled a list and tweaked it a smidge with my own thoughts on what their needs are to give myself a final "Team Needs" list that I'll do my best to address. Positions have been listed in order of most-needed to least-need, and that list of Team Needs will be listed with each scenario as a refresher and so we can see how well (or how poorly) I did in addressing those needs.

Ok! Now that THAT long introduction is done, let's get to the mocking!


DETROIT LIONS MOCK DRAFT SCENARIO #2: Trading Down with Miami

Team Needs: Edge/DI, CB, OG, WR, RB, OT, LB, TE, S, P, QB

Draft Results: 

Round 1 (Pick #5 - from Miami): Jeffrey Okudah, CB, Ohio State

To get this exercise started I went in knowing I'd be looking to trade with Miami. Joe Burrow and Chase Young ended up going 1-2 as expected. Then, in one of the best parts of PFF's draft simulator, the Dolphins actually came calling because they wanted to trade up for Tua Tagovailoa. In PFF's simulator you can make up to 3 offers to a team before trade talks die, and I have had teams reject offers from me in the past. Originally I was thinking of just swapping 1st-round picks and asking Miami for the first of their two 2nd-round picks, but I settled on asking for a just a bit more while also giving up one of my two 5th-round picks. So in the end the deal ended up being Detroit's #3 and #149 picks for Miami's #5, #39 and #70. Might be a bit of an overpay for Miami, but when you want to trade up for a QB sometimes you have to overpay. Plus the PFF system accepted the trade, which it certainly didn't have to.

In the end I was able to trade down and nab my top available target in Okudah after Miami drafted Tagovailoa and the New York Giants drafted Alabama WR Jerry Jeudy (I question the probability of that pick, but hey, crazier things have happened). Okudah remains the best player available for Detroit's defensive scheme. No team asked their cornerbacks to play man coverage as much as Detroit did last season, so getting Okudah to pair up with Desmond Trufant and Justin Coleman while also helping Amani Oruwariye not have to cover a WR1 or WR2 too often will be a huge help next season.

Round 2 (Pick #35): Marlon Davidson, DL, Auburn

After addressing my glaring need at CB with at #5 I knew I'd need to address the defensive line with one of my two picks in the 2nd round, and I had guys like Ross Blacklock (TCU DT), Yetur Gross-Matos (Penn St DE), Jordan Elliott (Missouri DT), Neville Gallimore (Oklahoma DT), Justin Madubuike (Texas A&M DT, whom I took in Monday's mock draft) among some others. Of note, A.J. Epenesa, whom I took with this pick in Monday's mock, was drafted in the Top 20 in this simulation so he was well out of the question.

Even with all those other names available, my choice was easy because Auburn's Davidson is one of the top defensive lineman available in the draft. His skill set would allow Matt Patricia to play him as a defensive end or a defensive tackle depending on the situation, which is perfect for Patricia's "multiple" defense. Getting the 3rd best DT after Derrick Brown and Javon Kinlaw went off the board at #17 and #18, respectively, was a pretty darn good get in my opinion (even if PFF graded this as one my worst selection of the whole draft).

Round 2 (Pick #39 - from Miami): Ezra Cleveland, OT, Boise State

In what was probably the toughest decision for me to make in the entire exercise, I opted to take Boise's Ezra Cleveland with the second of my two 2nd-round picks for a few reasons. Reason #1: it's a deep draft for WR and RB, so even with guys like Arizona State WR Brandon Aiyuk and runnings backs like Georgia's De'Andre Swift and Wisconsin's Jonathan Taylor available to me, I thought it was too early to take a guy like that when I could get someone else later. Reason #2: I felt I needed to address the offensive line where there were plenty of guys like Cleveland, Lloyd Cushenberry (UNC C) and Robert Hunt (Louisiana G) were ready and waiting.

Ultimately I took Cleveland because I think he's a first-round talent and he was just sitting there for the taking. And while offensive tackle may not be quite an immediate need for Detroit after they signed Halapoulivaati Vaitai to a sizable contract and they have Taylor Decker at left tackle, the truth is OT could be a long term need for Detroit. Taylor's only under contract for one more season and as far as we know Detroit has yet to approach him about a contract extension. And Vaitai's contract is voidable after two seasons. So Cleveland would be a prudent choice should Detroit move on from either Taylor or Vaitai, plus Vaitai could push inside and play right guard while Cleveland could be put at right tackle.

Worth noting, The Athletic's Chris Burke says the Lions "spent a lot of time scouting Boise State this year and met with OT Ezra Cleveland at the combine." So Detroit eyeing Cleveland isn't completely out of the question.

Round 3 (Pick #67): J.K. Dobbins, RB, Ohio State

This round is a perfect example of why Detroit so badly needs to trade down and accumulate additional draft picks if they can. Guys like Josh Uche (Michigan Edge), Curtis Weaver (Boise St Edge), Chase Claypool (Notre Dame WR), De'Andre Swift, Jonathan Taylor and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (LSU RB) all went off the board between picks 39 and 67 in this simulation. All of those guys would've been perfect 3rd round targets for Detroit and none of them fell to the 3rd. Uche went just 6 picks before my selection at #67, which ticked me off.

Alas, I was lucky enough that my personal top RB target was still on the board, and because I had another selection coming up in 3 picks I could afford to take the leap and grab Dobbins to add to the running back stable. He could be the perfect kind of RB for Darrell Bevell's offense and would give Matthew Stafford a legitimate three-down back who can catch passes out of the backfield.

Round 3 (Pick #70 - from Miami): Adam Trautman, TE, Dayton

I'll readily admit that this was not the pick I was expecting to make at this juncture. In hindsight I probably should've taken Uche, Weaver or Ohio State guard Josh Jackson at pick #39 to better address bigger needs, but I still think Cleveland was too good a player to pass up.

Instead I wind up with one of the two best tight ends in the draft and a guy not unlike Chase Claypool in my last mock that will give Stafford another receiving threat from day one. Trautman is coming from a smaller school so the level of competition at the NFL could be a concern, but he's incredibly athletic and possesses traits that should translate to the pros. Pair him up with T.J. Hockenson in two-tight end sets (since Jesse James has been a disappointment so far) and Bevell should be a happy offensive coordinator. I also felt I could afford to take a chance on Trautman since...

Round 3 (Pick #85): Bradlee Anae, Edge, Utah

Bradlee Anae was still on the board and I felt certain I could get him with the last of my three 3rd-round picks. Grabbing Anae again fills that pass rushing need and now I have addressed the secondary, the defensive line, the offensive line, added to my pass rush, added another solid RB to the corps, and gave Stafford another big target to throw to. That's 6 players who should be able to contribute immediately.

Round 4 (Pick #109): Bryan Edwards, WR, South Carolina

At this point I knew I'd be waiting quite a while for my next pick so even though I liked the idea of taking Wyoming LB Logan Wilson (whom I believe won't actually make it to the 4th round) I opted to address the WR position since that's still a big short and long-term need for Detroit considering not a single Lion receiver is under contract past 2020. Edwards was the best option left, though I do think some other players like Michigan's Donovan Peoples-Jones, Texas' Devin Duvernay, SMU's James Proche, and Kentucky's Lynn Bowden Jr. would've been fine choices as well.

Round 5 (Pick #166): Jason Strowbridge, DT, UNC

While the Marlon Davidson selection earlier in the draft addressed the glaring need on the defensive line, the Lions could still use reinforcements in that department. So at pick 166 I went with a player that got extensive hands-on coaching from Matt Patricia at the Senior Bowl, Jason Strowbridge.

Roung 6 (Pick #182): Braden Mann, P, Texas A&M

Keeping things simple while also trying to keep with reality a bit I opt to take Mann in the 6th round instead of the 7th like I did in Monday's mock draft. I still believe the Lions may need to take Mann in the 5th round if they truly want him.

Round 7 (Pick #235): James Morgan, QB, Florida International

This late in the draft it was really a crap shoot, and while an edge defender like former CMU Chippewa and Michigan Wolverine Michael Danna intrigued me, I thought "What would Bob Quinn do?" and went with snagging a quarterback to bring in to compete with David Blough for the QB3 spot. Morgan is absolutely a developmental QB, but with Stafford and now Chase Daniel under contract for the foreseeable future, Morgan is a QB who possesses NFL traits and is worth taking a flier on in the 7th round since everyone seems to agree signing undrafted free agents will be harder than usual this year.

OVERVIEW

All in all I was very happy with the haul I got in this simulation. It certainly helps to be able to trade down and pick up additional draft ammunition, so hopefully Bob Quinn is actually able to do so this weekend. If I'm being honest I don't think it's as likely as it would have been had COVID-19 not happened. Tua Tagovailoa having such big question marks around him makes me think teams won't be as eager to trade up for him as they would have been had he had a legitimate Pro Day and teams could've brought him to their facilities to be looked at by their own team doctors. Yet, teams routinely trade up for QBs so I'm not entirely ruling it out. Maybe it just won't be Miami, and that's going to be the scenario we try tomorrow!

COMING TOMORROW: Scenario #3 - Trading Down with Los Angeles Chargers at #6

Mocking the Detroit Lions 2020 Draft - Scenario #1: Staying at #3 Pick

With plenty of extra time on all of our hands and the 2020 NFL Draft approaching this week, I figured I would dust off the ol' sports blog and do a couple different exercises to kill some time. The NFL Draft is one of my favorite events every year because I'm a Detroit Lions fan, and as the cliche goes, the Draft is our Super Bowl.

More than anything I'm an eternal optimist who dabbles in reality, so while I'm always hopeful that the Lions will do the right thing and it will translate into success on the field, I also know the reality that building a contending NFL team is incredibly hard. It's even harder to build a contender with staying power. Just ask the Los Angeles Rams, who've jettisoned a number of the stars of their Super Bowl LIII team.

So you may be asking yourself what these "exercises" are that I'm going to post on the blog. Primarily for my own enjoyment but also to let people see my thoughts (no pun intended) and potentially drive some discussion either here on the blog or elsewhere on social media, I will be doing some mock drafts in a couple different formats.

Each day this week leading up to the NFL Draft on Thursday I will be posting a mock draft scenario in an attempt to see what players and situations could be available for the Lions in all 7 rounds of this year's draft. I will be doing three different mocks drafts using two different websites' draft simulators. What I'm attempting to do is play out three different scenarios for the Lions, pretend like I'm Lions General Manager Bob Quinn, and draft players that fill out both Detroit's short and long-term needs.

I'll be doing these three mocks using two different websites - The Draft Network and Pro Football Focus - because in two of the scenarios I'll be trading out of the #3 overall pick, and while I prefer TDN's mock draft simulator for ease of use I can't do trades on their site without paying for a subscription. PFF's mock draft simulator is entirely free and allows for trades, so I'll be using PFF for the two scenarios where I trade out of the 3-spot.

The schedule of things I'll be posting this week is below.

Monday (4/20): Scenario #1 - Staying at Pick #3

Tuesday (4/21): Scenario #2 - Trading Down to #5 with Miami

Wednesday (4/22) Scenario #3 - Trading Down to #6 with Los Angeles

Thursday (4/23): The Official 2020 Keck Thoughts Mock Draft

I think it's worth reinforcing that the mock draft I post on Thursday is what I think will happen, not what I want to happen or would do if I were GM.

Some ground rules for how I'll be performing these mock drafts: 

- As I will be cosplaying as Bob Quinn in these exercises I will be trying to put myself in Bob's shoes and do what I think he would do (as much as I can). To that point I'll get this out of the way now and tell you I will not be drafting Tua Tagovailoa in any of these scenarios because I simply do not believe the Lions will be taking him this weekend for a variety of reasons.

- Due to the nature of these mock draft simulators being an algorithm and subject to randomness, let's keep in mind that some players may fall in these simulations and be available to me when they probably won't be available for Detroit in real-life. Each site also has their own rankings for the players in the draft, so there will be some variance in that alone. But I'm taking each of these drafts one at a time, as they are, so if a guy like Javon Kinlaw somehow falls to me in the 2nd round in one of these mocks, I won't be passing on him just because I think it's unrealistic for him to fall that far.

- As part of the exercise I will be doing my best to address the needs of the Detroit Lions' roster. After consulting multiple websites to see what they believe Detroit's needs are, I compiled a list and tweaked it a smidge with my own thoughts on what their needs are to give myself a final "Team Needs" list that I'll do my best to address. Positions have been listed in order of most-needed to least-need, and that list of Team Needs will be listed with each scenario as a refresher and so we can see how well (or how poorly) I did in addressing those needs.

I think we all know that mock drafts are typically fruitless endeavors and usually land somewhere between being 10% to 20% correct since there are just so many variables and random things that can happen in a draft. But as I said, this is for fun. So I'm not worried about my accuracy being judged too harshly.

Ok! Now that THAT long introduction is done, let's get to the mocking!

DETROIT LIONS MOCK DRAFT SCENARIO #1: Staying at #3

Team Needs: Edge/DI, CB, OG, WR, RB, OT, LB, TE, S, P, QB

(Note: I intended to include a screen grab of all of the selections I made using The Draft Network's mock simulator, but as I've run into a few times now, when I had to search for the player I took in the 7th round the website froze after I made my pick, so I was unable to make said screen grab. Scout's honor that these were the picks I made in this order.)

Round 1 (Pick #3): Jeffrey Okudah, CB, Ohio State
Joe Burrow and Chase Young went #1 and #2, respectively, in this mock simulation. And since I wasn't doing any trades in this scenario I went with the player most people believe will be the Lions' selection: Ohio State's Jeffrey Okudah. Okudah should be able to fill the hole left by Detroit trading Darius Slay to Philadelphia. Desmond Trufant is a decent signing if he can stay healthy but Okudah would be the heir to Slay as the guy Matt Patricia can put on a team's WR1 all game.

Round 2 (Pick #35): A.J. Epenesa, DE, Iowa
In the 2nd round my hope was to address Detroit's need on the defensive line. Guys like K'Lavon Chaisson and Yetur Gross-Matos were taken at #16 and #23 respectively, allowing Epenesa to fall to me at #35. I can see the argument that getting someone on the interior of the defensive line is perhaps a bigger need but I feel Epenesa is a 1st-round talent who fits the Trey Flowers mold in Detroit's scheme. He can help set the edge and get to the QB. And speaking of Flowers, considering how often Patricia likes to move him to the middle of the line on passing downs, Patricia could put both Flowers and Epenesa on the field at the same time in passing situations. To me that is better than taking a 2-down defensive tackle at this spot.

Also worth noting that other options I passed up on thinking I could get one of them or someone similar in a later round included Georgia RB D'Andre Swift, Wisconsin RB Jonathan Taylor, Utah State QB Jordan Love, Boise State OT Ezra Cleveland, Wisconsin LB Zach Baun, TCU DT Ross Blacklock, and Alabama LB Terrell Lewis. Ultimately of this group only Love was left in the 3rd, so I did miss out on some guys I wanted. 

Plenty of wide receivers were also available and I felt good about getting one or more of Jalen Reagor (TCU), Brandon Aiyuk (Ariz St), KJ Hamler (Penn St), Michael Pittman (USC), Laviska Shenault (Colorado), Tee Higgins (Clemson), Donovan Peoples-Jones (Michigan), Chase Claypool (Notre Dame), Bryce Edwards (S. Carolina), Van Jefferson (Florida) or K.J. Hill (Ohio St.) later in the draft.

Round 3 (Pick #67): Justin Madubuike, Texas A&T, DT
At the first of Detroit's third round picks I had a plethora of options staring me in the face. Jordan Love was still on the board, Lenoir-Rhyne safety Kyle Duggar, Alabama CB Trevon Diggs, Florida State RB Cam Akers, Virginia CB Bryce Hall, Connecticut OT Matthew Peart, and Donovan Peoples-Jones and Chase Claypool were still available, too.

It took some deliberation for me but ultimately I decided I needed to address the defensive line interior and went with Madubuike, who will probably be able to step in from day one and be a part of the DT rotation along with Da'Shawn Hand, Danny Shelton, and Nick Williams. As Bob Quinn said in his teleconference with the media last week, Detroit is looking for players who are better able to hit the ground running since there most likely won't be any summer training programs or even a training camp. At this point in the draft I've now addressed my top three needs with a CB, an Edge defender and a DT. I still need a guard and a WR before I've addressed my top 5 needs.

Round 3 (Pick #85): Chase Claypool, WR/TE, Notre Dame
With my second pick in the third round there were plenty of wide receivers available like Peoples-Jones, Bryce Edwards, Van Jefferson, and K.J. Hill, as well as running backs I liked like Memphis' Antonio Gibson, Utah's Zack Moss, Appalachian State's Darrynton Evans and Boston College's A.J. Dillon. I also had some other targets available like Michigan guard Ben Bredeson, UConn's Peart, and Utah edge Bradlee Anae, but ultimately taking Claypool was an example of a player falling further than I expected him to and not being able to pass up the value.

The fact Claypool addresses one of my biggest remaining needs was just gravy. He's not the fastest player and doesn't make the smoothest cuts in his routes, but he's big and can go up and get the ball just like Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay. Some people have compared Claypool to a Travis Kelce-type of receiver. Put Claypool on the field along with Jones, Golladay and T.J. Hockenson and you'll be forcing the defense pick their poison.

Round 4 (Pick #109): Bradlee Anae, Edge, Utah
Anae is a player who has long been connected to the Lions due to their experience with him during the Senior Bowl (where Anae tallied 3 sacks), along with additional "visits" during the pre-draft process. He'd be a fit for the Lions scheme as a Jack linebacker, nominally being used to replace Devon Kennard as a pass rusher but also needing to play some coverage.

While I had already addressed the Edge position earlier by selecting A.J. Epenesa, I felt getting a guy like Anae to further bolster an anemic pass rush was more important than adding a RB or another DT. To that point, players who I debated taking included running backs Zack Moss, Darrynton Evans, AJ Dillon and UCLA's Joshua Kelley; defensive tackles Leki Fotu (Utah), McTelvin Agim (Arkansas), and Jason Strowbridge (UNC, another player the Lions coaches got Senior Bowl experience with); and Michigan's Ben Bredeson was still on the board and I took the chance that I'd be able to snag him with one of my two 5th round picks. (I would be wrong about that.)

Round 5 (Pick #149): Joshua Kelley, RB, UCLA
Immediately after taking Anae in the fourth round I started to wonder if I had made a mistake somewhere along the way because all my other target hopefuls started flying off the board. Moss, Evans, Fotu, Agim, Strowbridge, Dillon, Bredeson, all taken in the 40 picks between my fourth round pick and my first fifth round pick.

I still needed to address OG and RB, and frankly none of the remaining guards inspired a ton of hope in me. But there was one RB left I felt fit with Detroit, and that's partially because the coaching staff got to have hands-on experience with him at the Senior Bowl. So I took Joshua Kelley to add to the RB stable in the hopes he can be part of a nice rotation with Kerryon Johnson and Bo Scarbrough.

Round 5 (Pick #166): Geno Stone, S, Iowa
It was at this point in the draft I started really looking under rocks because all the guys I would've targeted were long gone. And while I don't think safety is a particularly huge need for Detroit, I know Patricia likes to employ 3-safety sets fairly often and Stone is a guy who grades out quite well analytically even if his athleticism doesn't jump off the charts. Bill Belichick and his disciples, like Quinn, are fans of players from Iowa - see T.J. Hockenson - so I'm confident that Quinn would have no hesitation in picking up Stone at this point in the draft.

Round 6 (Pick #182): Cameron Clark, OL, Charlotte
All the interior offensive line targets I had in mind were taken off the board rounds ago, so at this point I opted to just take the best offensive lineman left on the board which was Charlotte's Cameron Clark, a prospect who could compete with Kenny Wiggins for playing time right away, though is more likely to be a backup combo guard/tackle for Detroit.

Round 7 (Pick #235): Braden Mann, P, Texas A&M
Rounding things out I opted to take a punter considering Detroit let Sam Martin walk in free agency, and it's been commonplace to see Lions media members predict Quinn to draft a punter. Braden Mann is the best of the bunch in this year's draft, he was on the Lion's North team in the Senior Bowl, it all adds up. Though honestly if Detroit wants Mann they'll probably need to take him in the 5th round as that's been a popular round for teams to dip into the special teams waters of late. As a matter of act, the Seattle Seahawks drafted their punter, Michael Dickson, with pick 149 two years ago, which just so happens to be the same spot as Detroit's second pick in the 5th round this year.

OVERVIEW
On the whole I'm not displeased with how this mock turned out. I addressed Detroit's largest needs at cornerback and defensive line, plus I added a receiver late in the 3rd round who could very well become an immediate contributor. I'm not totally in love with the Day 3 picks later in the simulation, but I do believe Stone is a player who could actually end up in Honolulu Blue, and Mann fills another need of importance to this coaching staff. My biggest regret is not addressing the offensive line earlier as I do believe the right side of the offensive line could use some reinforcements. That all said, if Detroit isn't able to trade down out of the #3 spot on Thursday, I think this would be a pretty accurate and successful draft for Detroit.

Now let's see how we do by trading down in the first round and picking up some extra draft capital!

COMING TOMORROW: Scenario #2 - Trading Down with Miami at #5