I'm doing these three mocks using two different websites - The Draft Network and Pro Football Focus - because in two of the scenarios I'll be trading out of the #3 overall pick, and while I prefer TDN's mock draft simulator for ease of use I can't do trades on their site without paying for a subscription. PFF's mock draft simulator is entirely free and allows for trades, so I'll be using PFF for the two scenarios where I trade out of the 3-spot.
The remaining schedule of things I'll be posting this week is below.
Today (4/22) Scenario #3 - Trading Down to #6 with Los Angeles
Thursday (4/23): The Official 2020 Keck Thoughts Mock Draft
I think it's worth reinforcing that the mock draft I post on Thursday is what I think will happen, not what I want to happen or would do if I were GM.
Some ground rules for how I'll be performing these mock drafts:
- As I will be cosplaying as Bob Quinn in these exercises I will be trying to put myself in Bob's shoes and do what I think he would do (as much as I can). To that point I'll get this out of the way now and tell you I will not be drafting Tua Tagovailoa in any of these scenarios because I simply do not believe the Lions will be taking him this weekend for a variety of reasons.
- Due to the nature of these mock draft simulators being an algorithm and subject to randomness, let's keep in mind that some players may fall in these simulations and be available to me when they probably won't be available for Detroit in real-life. Each site also has their own rankings for the players in the draft, so there will be some variance in that alone. But I'm taking each of these drafts one at a time, as they are, so if a guy like Javon Kinlaw somehow falls to me in the 2nd round in one of these mocks, I won't be passing on him just because I think it's unrealistic for him to fall that far.
- As part of the exercise I will be doing my best to address the needs of the Detroit Lions' roster. After consulting multiple websites to see what they believe Detroit's needs are, I compiled a list and tweaked it a smidge with my own thoughts on what their needs are to give myself a final "Team Needs" list that I'll do my best to address. Positions have been listed in order of most-needed to least-need, and that list of Team Needs will be listed with each scenario as a refresher and so we can see how well (or how poorly) I did in addressing those needs.
Ok! Now that THAT long introduction is done, let's get to the mocking!
DETROIT LIONS MOCK DRAFT SCENARIO #2: Trading Down with Miami
Team Needs: Edge/DI, CB, OG, WR, RB, OT, LB, TE, S, P, QB
Draft Results:
Round 1 (Pick #6 - from LA Chargers): Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn
To get our third situation started I went in knowing I'd be looking to trade with the Los Angeles Chargers. Once again Joe Burrow and Chase Young ended up going 1-2 as expected. Then just as I hoped and need the Chargers actually came calling because they wanted to trade up for Tua Tagovailoa. Reminder that in PFF's simulator you can make up to 3 offers to a team before trade talks die, and I have had teams reject offers from me in the past. In Tuesday's exercise where we traded with Miami I got a little greedy and made the deal a little bigger than will probably actually happen (if a trade-down does happen for Detroit), so today I opted to go on the conservative side. So in the end the deal ended up being Detroit's #3 pick for Los Angeles's #6 and their 3rd round pick, #71. This isn't a phenomenal haul for Quinn, but it's probably realistic. Wouldn't surprise me in the least if the best offer for the 3rd pick is a single Day Two selection.
So with the trade agreed to, LA moved up and took Tagovailoa, then the Giants took Jeffrey Okudah (who's been our pick the last two exercises), and in what may be closer to reality than we realize the Dolphins took an offensive tackle at #5, selecting Alabama's Jedrick Wills. Which left me to choose between Clemson jack-of-all-trades Isaiah Simmons and Derrick Brown. I opted for Brown simply because of the increasing sentiment among some Detroit media that the Lions love Brown and would like to add him to their thin defensive line. It also makes this exercise a quite a bit different than the previous two, so I'm down for that.
Round 2 (Pick #35): Cesar Ruiz, C/G, Michigan
Considering we didn't get Jeffrey Okudah in this particular mock I was hoping to be able to address that position in the 2nd round. Alas, 4 CBs went in the 8 picks before mine, with 6 CBs total going in the 1st round. That is a very possible scenario come Thursday.
So with all my top CB targets off the board as well as one of my favored Edge targets in Wisconsin's Zach Baun, I found myself deciding between Michigan center Cesar Ruiz and Arizona State wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. Seeing as WR is much deeper in this year's draft class I opted to take the best interior lineman on the board in Ruiz. While he mainly played center for the Wolverines, Ruiz did play guard for a season and should be able to immediately step into either starting guard role for Detroit.
Round 3 (Pick #67): Josh Uche, Edge, Michigan
Yet another run on cornerbacks happened before my pick. This time 5 CBs were in taken within the 10 picks before mine, including 4 in a row at one point. While plenty of skill position players like Chase Claypool, J.K. Dobbins, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire were available I felt like I still needed to address Detroit's dearth of a pass rush. With Uche sitting atop the board it was a no-brainer for me. Now we've addressed the defensive line twice, leaving cornerback as our top remaining need and then depth at every other position.
Round 3 (Pick #71 - from Los Angeles): Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, LSU
Taking advantage of the surplus 3rd-round pick I wanted to target a skill position to give Matthew Stafford another weapon. Dobbins and Edwards-Helaire were both on the board at this point, and both because I think Edwards-Helaire would be a fascinating weapon for Darrell Bevell and because we took Dobbins in yesterday's exercise I chose to go with the Tiger running back this time.
Round 3 (Pick #85): Amik Robertson, CB, Louisiana Tech
At this juncture there were still some running backs on the board I maybe could waited for in Utah's Zack Moss and Florida State's Cam Akers. I wouldn't be surprised to see either of those guys available at this point in the real draft this weekend nor would I be surprised to see Detroit take one of them. Kerryon Johnson has missed significant time due to injuries in both of his pro seasons, and Bo Scarbrough is still a question mark.
Regardless, I had plenty of options at this pick. Linemen like LSU guard Damien Lewis, TCU tackle Lucas Niang, Alabama DT Raekwon Davis, Michigan State edge Kenny Willekes were all available. Ultimately I figured there was plenty of depth at the line positions and I had yet to address my need at CB so I went with Amik Robertson, who's shorter than the Lions prefer but should be able to step in from day one and provide depth in the secondary.
Round 4 (Pick #109): Logan Wilson, LB, Wyoming
Here's a case of a player I truly don't think will be available at this pick in reality, but Wilson would be a really nice addition to the Lions' linebacker corps. His overall production at Wyoming stands out and he has traits that would make him an immediate rotational player like Jahlani Tavai was last season (but quicker).
Round 5 (Pick #149): Reggie Robinson II, CB, Tulsa
Seeing as I still wasn't entirely happy with how I had been able to address the secondary in this mock I opted to double dip at the position and grab a CB who fits more along the physical traits Patricia likes in his corners, as well as a guy who can play both man-press and zone coverages. I like my chances that one of Robinson or Robertson will be a pick that hits.
Round 5 (Pick #166): Jason Strowbridge, DT, UNC
I took Strowbridge in yesterday's mock and considering he was the best available lineman on the board in this mock I decided he worked this time for the same reasons he did yesterday. Now through five rounds I've added three defensive linemen, two cornerbacks, an offensive lineman who'll start somewhere on the o-line immediately, a running back who'll be in the starting rotation immediately, and a promising linebacker. The only pressing need I haven't addressed is wide receiver...
Round 6 (Pick #182): James Proche, WR, SMU
And now I've addressed wide receiver. Proche is another player I doubt will fall this far in reality, but if he does it just speaks to the depth at wide receiver this year. Proche isn't a known name to most football fans but there are a number of analysts who have pegged him as a mid-to-late round gem. May as well take a flier on him in my mock at this point to fill that WR need.
Round 7 (Pick #235): Anthony McFarland, RB, Maryland
With my final pick I took another dip in the running back pool and snagged a player who has flashed great potential in college but also underwhelmed on the whole. McFarland certainly has traits that could prove valuable in the pro game, and the hope here would be that he adds to the running back depth with the potential for more. Just another flier worth taking this late in the draft instead of me taking Braden Mann or a project QB like I have in the previous scenarios.
OVERVIEW
Ultimately as this exercise shows, if the Lions miss out on Jeffrey Okudah and then don't trade up to get another first round pick, there's a very good shot they miss out on all the best cornerbacks in this year's draft. I'm not the biggest proponent of taking Derrick Brown with a Top 6 pick even though I admit he'd fit a big need. If Detroit did trade down and somehow missed out on Okudah my hope would be that they trade back again and accumulate even more picks, because not having additional picks in the 2nd round in this mock makes this haul decidedly less rosy than the previous two mocks. Overall this mock's results are solid but not spectacular, and I feel if Quinn and Patricia have any hope of keeping their jobs past this season they need to hit some home runs instead of stand-up doubles.
COMING TOMORROW: The Official Keck Thoughts 2020 NFL Mock Draft!
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