Hey folks! First and foremost thank you to the handful of you who read even a little bit of yesterday's post where I started this mock draft exercise. I hope you found it somewhat enjoyable/informative. If you didn't, I apologize and suggest you stop reading this post right now because it's going to be more of the same! As I explained in the first post yesterday, each day this week leading up to the NFL Draft on Thursday I will be doing three different mocks drafts using two different websites' draft simulators. What I'm attempting to do is play out three different scenarios for the Lions, pretend like I'm Lions General Manager Bob Quinn, and draft players that fill out both Detroit's short and long-term needs.
I'll be doing these three mocks using two different websites - The Draft Network and Pro Football Focus - because in two of the scenarios I'll be trading out of the #3 overall pick, and while I prefer TDN's mock draft simulator for ease of use I can't do trades on their site without paying for a subscription. PFF's mock draft simulator is entirely free and allows for trades, so I'll be using PFF for the two scenarios where I trade out of the 3-spot.
The remaining schedule of things I'll be posting this week is below.
Tuesday (4/21): Scenario #2 - Trading Down to #5 with Miami
Wednesday (4/22) Scenario #3 - Trading Down to #6 with Los Angeles
Thursday (4/23): The Official 2020 Keck Thoughts Mock Draft
I think it's worth reinforcing that the mock draft I post on Thursday is what I think will happen, not what I want to happen or would do if I were GM.
Some ground rules for how I'll be performing these mock drafts:
- As I will be cosplaying as Bob Quinn in these exercises I will be trying to put myself in Bob's shoes and do what I think he would do (as much as I can). To that point I'll get this out of the way now and tell you I will not be drafting Tua Tagovailoa in any of these scenarios because I simply do not believe the Lions will be taking him this weekend for a variety of reasons.
- Due to the nature of these mock draft simulators being an algorithm and subject to randomness, let's keep in mind that some players may fall in these simulations and be available to me when they probably won't be available for Detroit in real-life. Each site also has their own rankings for the players in the draft, so there will be some variance in that alone. But I'm taking each of these drafts one at a time, as they are, so if a guy like Javon Kinlaw somehow falls to me in the 2nd round in one of these mocks, I won't be passing on him just because I think it's unrealistic for him to fall that far.
- As part of the exercise I will be doing my best to address the needs of the Detroit Lions' roster. After consulting multiple websites to see what they believe Detroit's needs are, I compiled a list and tweaked it a smidge with my own thoughts on what their needs are to give myself a final "Team Needs" list that I'll do my best to address. Positions have been listed in order of most-needed to least-need, and that list of Team Needs will be listed with each scenario as a refresher and so we can see how well (or how poorly) I did in addressing those needs.
Ok! Now that THAT long introduction is done, let's get to the mocking!
DETROIT LIONS MOCK DRAFT SCENARIO #2: Trading Down with Miami
Team Needs: Edge/DI, CB, OG, WR, RB, OT, LB, TE, S, P, QB
Draft Results:
Round 1 (Pick #5 - from Miami): Jeffrey Okudah, CB, Ohio State
To get this exercise started I went in knowing I'd be looking to trade with Miami. Joe Burrow and Chase Young ended up going 1-2 as expected. Then, in one of the best parts of PFF's draft simulator, the Dolphins actually came calling because they wanted to trade up for Tua Tagovailoa. In PFF's simulator you can make up to 3 offers to a team before trade talks die, and I have had teams reject offers from me in the past. Originally I was thinking of just swapping 1st-round picks and asking Miami for the first of their two 2nd-round picks, but I settled on asking for a just a bit more while also giving up one of my two 5th-round picks. So in the end the deal ended up being Detroit's #3 and #149 picks for Miami's #5, #39 and #70. Might be a bit of an overpay for Miami, but when you want to trade up for a QB sometimes you have to overpay. Plus the PFF system accepted the trade, which it certainly didn't have to.
In the end I was able to trade down and nab my top available target in Okudah after Miami drafted Tagovailoa and the New York Giants drafted Alabama WR Jerry Jeudy (I question the probability of that pick, but hey, crazier things have happened). Okudah remains the best player available for Detroit's defensive scheme. No team asked their cornerbacks to play man coverage as much as Detroit did last season, so getting Okudah to pair up with Desmond Trufant and Justin Coleman while also helping Amani Oruwariye not have to cover a WR1 or WR2 too often will be a huge help next season.
Round 2 (Pick #35): Marlon Davidson, DL, Auburn
After addressing my glaring need at CB with at #5 I knew I'd need to address the defensive line with one of my two picks in the 2nd round, and I had guys like Ross Blacklock (TCU DT), Yetur Gross-Matos (Penn St DE), Jordan Elliott (Missouri DT), Neville Gallimore (Oklahoma DT), Justin Madubuike (Texas A&M DT, whom I took in Monday's mock draft) among some others. Of note, A.J. Epenesa, whom I took with this pick in Monday's mock, was drafted in the Top 20 in this simulation so he was well out of the question.
Even with all those other names available, my choice was easy because Auburn's Davidson is one of the top defensive lineman available in the draft. His skill set would allow Matt Patricia to play him as a defensive end or a defensive tackle depending on the situation, which is perfect for Patricia's "multiple" defense. Getting the 3rd best DT after Derrick Brown and Javon Kinlaw went off the board at #17 and #18, respectively, was a pretty darn good get in my opinion (even if PFF graded this as one my worst selection of the whole draft).
Round 2 (Pick #39 - from Miami): Ezra Cleveland, OT, Boise State
In what was probably the toughest decision for me to make in the entire exercise, I opted to take Boise's Ezra Cleveland with the second of my two 2nd-round picks for a few reasons. Reason #1: it's a deep draft for WR and RB, so even with guys like Arizona State WR Brandon Aiyuk and runnings backs like Georgia's De'Andre Swift and Wisconsin's Jonathan Taylor available to me, I thought it was too early to take a guy like that when I could get someone else later. Reason #2: I felt I needed to address the offensive line where there were plenty of guys like Cleveland, Lloyd Cushenberry (UNC C) and Robert Hunt (Louisiana G) were ready and waiting.
Ultimately I took Cleveland because I think he's a first-round talent and he was just sitting there for the taking. And while offensive tackle may not be quite an immediate need for Detroit after they signed Halapoulivaati Vaitai to a sizable contract and they have Taylor Decker at left tackle, the truth is OT could be a long term need for Detroit. Taylor's only under contract for one more season and as far as we know Detroit has yet to approach him about a contract extension. And Vaitai's contract is voidable after two seasons. So Cleveland would be a prudent choice should Detroit move on from either Taylor or Vaitai, plus Vaitai could push inside and play right guard while Cleveland could be put at right tackle.
Worth noting, The Athletic's Chris Burke says the Lions "spent a lot of time scouting Boise State this year and met with OT Ezra Cleveland at the combine." So Detroit eyeing Cleveland isn't completely out of the question.
Round 3 (Pick #67): J.K. Dobbins, RB, Ohio State
This round is a perfect example of why Detroit so badly needs to trade down and accumulate additional draft picks if they can. Guys like Josh Uche (Michigan Edge), Curtis Weaver (Boise St Edge), Chase Claypool (Notre Dame WR), De'Andre Swift, Jonathan Taylor and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (LSU RB) all went off the board between picks 39 and 67 in this simulation. All of those guys would've been perfect 3rd round targets for Detroit and none of them fell to the 3rd. Uche went just 6 picks before my selection at #67, which ticked me off.
Alas, I was lucky enough that my personal top RB target was still on the board, and because I had another selection coming up in 3 picks I could afford to take the leap and grab Dobbins to add to the running back stable. He could be the perfect kind of RB for Darrell Bevell's offense and would give Matthew Stafford a legitimate three-down back who can catch passes out of the backfield.
Round 3 (Pick #70 - from Miami): Adam Trautman, TE, Dayton
I'll readily admit that this was not the pick I was expecting to make at this juncture. In hindsight I probably should've taken Uche, Weaver or Ohio State guard Josh Jackson at pick #39 to better address bigger needs, but I still think Cleveland was too good a player to pass up.
Instead I wind up with one of the two best tight ends in the draft and a guy not unlike Chase Claypool in my last mock that will give Stafford another receiving threat from day one. Trautman is coming from a smaller school so the level of competition at the NFL could be a concern, but he's incredibly athletic and possesses traits that should translate to the pros. Pair him up with T.J. Hockenson in two-tight end sets (since Jesse James has been a disappointment so far) and Bevell should be a happy offensive coordinator. I also felt I could afford to take a chance on Trautman since...
Round 3 (Pick #85): Bradlee Anae, Edge, Utah
Bradlee Anae was still on the board and I felt certain I could get him with the last of my three 3rd-round picks. Grabbing Anae again fills that pass rushing need and now I have addressed the secondary, the defensive line, the offensive line, added to my pass rush, added another solid RB to the corps, and gave Stafford another big target to throw to. That's 6 players who should be able to contribute immediately.
Round 4 (Pick #109): Bryan Edwards, WR, South Carolina
At this point I knew I'd be waiting quite a while for my next pick so even though I liked the idea of taking Wyoming LB Logan Wilson (whom I believe won't actually make it to the 4th round) I opted to address the WR position since that's still a big short and long-term need for Detroit considering not a single Lion receiver is under contract past 2020. Edwards was the best option left, though I do think some other players like Michigan's Donovan Peoples-Jones, Texas' Devin Duvernay, SMU's James Proche, and Kentucky's Lynn Bowden Jr. would've been fine choices as well.
Round 5 (Pick #166): Jason Strowbridge, DT, UNC
While the Marlon Davidson selection earlier in the draft addressed the glaring need on the defensive line, the Lions could still use reinforcements in that department. So at pick 166 I went with a player that got extensive hands-on coaching from Matt Patricia at the Senior Bowl, Jason Strowbridge.
Roung 6 (Pick #182): Braden Mann, P, Texas A&M
Keeping things simple while also trying to keep with reality a bit I opt to take Mann in the 6th round instead of the 7th like I did in Monday's mock draft. I still believe the Lions may need to take Mann in the 5th round if they truly want him.
Round 7 (Pick #235): James Morgan, QB, Florida International
This late in the draft it was really a crap shoot, and while an edge defender like former CMU Chippewa and Michigan Wolverine Michael Danna intrigued me, I thought "What would Bob Quinn do?" and went with snagging a quarterback to bring in to compete with David Blough for the QB3 spot. Morgan is absolutely a developmental QB, but with Stafford and now Chase Daniel under contract for the foreseeable future, Morgan is a QB who possesses NFL traits and is worth taking a flier on in the 7th round since everyone seems to agree signing undrafted free agents will be harder than usual this year.
OVERVIEW
All in all I was very happy with the haul I got in this simulation. It certainly helps to be able to trade down and pick up additional draft ammunition, so hopefully Bob Quinn is actually able to do so this weekend. If I'm being honest I don't think it's as likely as it would have been had COVID-19 not happened. Tua Tagovailoa having such big question marks around him makes me think teams won't be as eager to trade up for him as they would have been had he had a legitimate Pro Day and teams could've brought him to their facilities to be looked at by their own team doctors. Yet, teams routinely trade up for QBs so I'm not entirely ruling it out. Maybe it just won't be Miami, and that's going to be the scenario we try tomorrow!
COMING TOMORROW: Scenario #3 - Trading Down with Los Angeles Chargers at #6
No comments:
Post a Comment