MOCKING THE DETROIT LIONS' 2024 NFL DRAFT: TRADE DOWN SCENARIO

We are just one day away from the 2024 NFL Draft, and we are at the end of our Mocking the Detroit Lions' 2024 NFL Draft series here at Keck Thoughts.

In our previous scenario we explored a potential trade up in Round 1. This time we're going to try to trade down likely out of the first round and see how our draft plays out.

Per usual, an explanation for how I typically handle mock draft simulations for these posts:

• I try to think along the lines of Lions GM Brad Holmes and Head Coach Dan Campbell...but ultimately I'll be making a lot of picks with what I think just makes sense given the circumstances.

• Due to the nature of mock draft simulators being an algorithm and subject to randomness, we must keep in mind that some players may fall in these simulations and be available to me when they probably won't be available for Detroit in real life. Each site also has their own rankings for the players in the draft, so there will be some variance in that alone. This time I opted for Pro Football Network's because I prefer how their draft simulator actually calls you with trade offers, whereas Pro Football Focus' does not.

As I always mention, this is more of a thought exercise to see who the Lions might have available to them and who they might draft in reality. Three years I did three different exercises, three different scenarios, and at various points in those exercises I had Detroit draft Levi Onwuzurike, Alim McNeil, and Amon-Ra St. Brown, all of whom Detroit actually did draft that year. Last year I also had Hendon Hooker and Jahmyr Gibbs to the Lions at various points. So again, that's the kind of thing we're talking about here. 

The draft results are right below this sentence if you just want to take a glance at the actual picks, and after the jump/below the picks is a full recap and breakdown of the simulation and my thinking behind each pick. Enjoy!

DETROIT LIONS MOCK DRAFT SCENARIO: Post-Free Agency Edition

Team Needs: Cornerback, Defensive Line, Interior Offensive Line, Wide Receiver, Safety, Offensive Tackle, Place Kicker, Tight End, Linebacker, Quarterback, Running Back

DRAFT RESULTS

MOCKING THE DETROIT LIONS' 2024 NFL DRAFT: TRADE UP SCENARIO

We are just 8 days away from the 2024 NFL Draft, so let's keep it going with another entry in our Mocking the Detroit Lions' 2024 NFL Draft series here at Keck Thoughts.

In our last scenario we didn't move off of any of Detroit's actual draft positions. This time in an effort to experiment with possible scenarios and to keep learning about other players, we're going to try to trade up in the first round and see how our draft plays out.

Per usual, an explanation for how I typically handle mock draft simulations for these posts:

• I try to think along the lines of Lions GM Brad Holmes and Head Coach Dan Campbell...but ultimately I'll be making a lot of picks with what I think just makes sense given the circumstances.

• Due to the nature of mock draft simulators being an algorithm and subject to randomness, we must keep in mind that some players may fall in these simulations and be available to me when they probably won't be available for Detroit in real life. Each site also has their own rankings for the players in the draft, so there will be some variance in that alone. This time I opted for Pro Football Focus' draft simulator to change things up and because they now allow you to change the slider on which draft board you want to go off of.

As I always mention, this is more of a thought exercise to see who the Lions might have available to them and who they might draft in reality. Three years I did three different exercises, three different scenarios, and at various points in those exercises I had Detroit draft Levi Onwuzurike, Alim McNeil, and Amon-Ra St. Brown, all of whom Detroit actually did draft that year. Last year I also had Hendon Hooker and Jahmyr Gibbs to the Lions at various points. So again, that's the kind of thing we're talking about here. 

The draft results are right below this sentence if you just want to take a glance at the actual picks, and after the jump/below the picks is a full recap and breakdown of the simulation and my thinking behind each pick. Enjoy!

DETROIT LIONS MOCK DRAFT SCENARIO: Post-Free Agency Edition

Team Needs: Cornerback, Defensive Line, Interior Offensive Line, Wide Receiver, Safety, Offensive Tackle, Place Kicker, Tight End, Linebacker, Quarterback, Running Back

DRAFT RESULTS

MOCKING THE DETROIT LIONS' 2024 NFL DRAFT: POST-FREE AGENCY EDITION

The pre-draft season continues, and so does our Mocking the Detroit Lions' 2024 NFL Draft series here at Keck Thoughts.

The Lions have had a moderately active offseason and General Manager Brad Holmes has done a nice job of addressing the biggest needs the Lions had entering March. The secondary has been bolstered with the trade for Carlton Davis and the signing of Amik Robertson, the defensive line has added the talents of D.J. Reader and Marcus Davenport, and the offensive line has been solidified with the re-signing of Graham Glasgow and the signing of Kevin Zeitler. If you notice, those were positions one, two, and three on my Team Needs list.

There's still some work to be done and plenty of quality, veteran free agents are still available. The secondary in particular will need more attention following the release of Cameron Sutton following his arrest warrant for domestic violence.

But Holmes has done such a good job with signings and trades so far that he has positioned himself to draft best player available with every pick. (To be honest that's Holmes' M.O. anyway, but he really made sure he could do what he wants in April.)

Per usual, an explanation for how I typically handle mock draft simulations for these posts:

• I try to think along the lines of Lions GM Brad Holmes and Head Coach Dan Campbell...but ultimately I'll be making a lot of picks with what I think just makes sense given the circumstances.

• Due to the nature of mock draft simulators being an algorithm and subject to randomness, we must keep in mind that some players may fall in these simulations and be available to me when they probably won't be available for Detroit in real life. Each site also has their own rankings for the players in the draft, so there will be some variance in that alone. In this particular exercise I used Pro Football Network's simulator because that's what we used in the previous exercise and I wanted a little consistency between this one and the last one.

And as I always mention, this is more of a thought exercise to see who the Lions might have available to them and who they might draft in reality. Three years I did three different exercises, three different scenarios, and at various points in those exercises I had Detroit draft Levi Onwuzurike, Alim McNeil, and Amon-Ra St. Brown, all of whom Detroit actually did draft that year. Last year I also had Hendon Hooker and Jahmyr Gibbs to the Lions at various points. So again, that's the kind of thing we're talking about here. 

The draft results are right below this sentence if you just want to take a glance at the actual picks, and after the jump/below the picks is a full recap and breakdown of the simulation and my thinking behind each pick. Enjoy!

DETROIT LIONS MOCK DRAFT SCENARIO: Post-Free Agency Edition

Team Needs: Cornerback, Defensive Line, Interior Offensive Line, Wide Receiver, Safety, Offensive Tackle, Place Kicker, Tight End, Linebacker, Quarterback, Running Back

DRAFT RESULTS

MOCKING THE DETROIT LIONS' 2024 NFL DRAFT: PRE-FREE AGENCY EDITION

Annnnnnd we're back! Welcome back to another NFL Draft season here at Keck Thoughts. Getting started a little later than we did last year, but I wanted to get this first exercise done and posted before NFL free agency kicks off.

As usual, some explanation for how I typically handle mock draft simulations for these posts:

• I try to think along the lines of Lions GM Brad Holmes and Head Coach Dan Campbell...but ultimately I'll be making a lot of picks with what I think just makes sense given the circumstances.

• Due to the nature of mock draft simulators being an algorithm and subject to randomness, we must keep in mind that some players may fall in these simulations and be available to me when they probably won't be available for Detroit in real life. Each site also has their own rankings for the players in the draft, so there will be some variance in that alone. In this particular exercise I used Pro Football Network's simulator in large part because Pro Football Focus has seemingly gotten rid of the ability to switch between their simulator using their own rankings and their users' rankings, and currently a lot of PFF's rankings just don't jive with reality (i.e. LSU QB Jayden Daniels always seeming to be available at pick 29).

• I've compiled my personal priority list for what I think Detroit's needs are this offseason, but the more we see how Brad Holmes drafts the more we see he leans more towards who the best player on his board is, oftentimes with disregard for perceived team needs. So we won't be beholden to drafting for needs over best player available.

And as I always mention, this is more of a thought exercise to see who the Lions might have available to them and who they might draft in reality. Three years I did three different exercises, three different scenarios, and at various points in those exercises I had Detroit draft Levi Onwuzurike, Alim McNeil, and Amon-Ra St. Brown, all of whom Detroit actually did draft that year. Last year I also had Hendon Hooker and Jahmyr Gibbs to the Lions at various points. So again, that's the kind of thing I'm talking about here. 

Without further ado, the draft results are right below this sentence if you just want to take a glance at the actual picks, and after the jump/below the picks is a full recap and breakdown of the simulation and my thinking behind each pick. Enjoy!

DETROIT LIONS MOCK DRAFT SCENARIO: Pre-Free Agency Edition

Team Needs: Cornerback, Defensive Line, Interior Offensive Line, Wide Receiver, Safety, Offensive Tackle, Place Kicker, Tight End, Linebacker, Quarterback, Running Back

DRAFT RESULTS

The Official Keck Thoughts 2023 NFL Mock Draft

"Vontae Mack No Matter What."

It's Draft Day, which means it's time for the Official Keck Thoughts 2023 Mock Draft! As always these are my predictions for where I think teams will pick players. Last year I didn't project any trades, but this year I am because this draft appears to be more unpredictable than any in recent history and it was impossible for me to figure out what I thought would happen without projecting some trades.

Last year I correctly picked 9 players to the teams that ended up drafting them, 5 of which were in the exact correct spot, 4 in a different spot than I predicted but still to the right team. Let's see how I do this year.

KECK THOUGHTS 2023 NFL MOCK DRAFT 

#1.) Carolina Panthers – Bryce Young, QB, Alabama 

- The most predictable selection in the draft.

#2.) Houston Texans – Will Anderson Jr., Edge, Alabama

- And now the most unpredictable selection in the whole draft. Pretty much everything the rest of the draft hinges on what Houston does here. They could very well take a QB like C.J. Stroud but the tide seems to have shifted to a defensive lineman. I had Tyree Wilson here for the longest time but ultimately felt Houston will go with the safer pick. If Anderson gets past Houston I will not be surprised if Detroit makes a move for him.

#3.) Tennessee Titans (projected trade with Arizona) – C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State

- All the scuttlebutt is Arizona wants to trade down, and plenty of prognosticators seem to think Tennessee if the most likely to trade up for their QB of the future. I agree. I think Tennessee gives up picks 11, 41, and a future 1st at a minimum to jump up and get Stroud. If Arizona doesn't trade down, I think Arizona goes with Ohio State OT Paris Johnson instead of Tyree Wilson.

#4.) Indianapolis Colts – Will Levis, QB, Kentucky

- There's so much smoke connecting Levis to Indianapolis that I'll be genuinely surprised if it doesn't happen. The only way I see it not happening is if Stroud is still on the board. But at this point in this mock he's not.

#5.) Seattle Seahawks – Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida

- There are a lot of people who think this is Georgia DT Jalen Carter's landing spot, but after thinking about it a lot I just couldn't get over Seattle opting for the high-ceiling QB to develop behind Geno Smith. It's a risk, yes. But drafting Carter would be, too.

#6.) Philadelphia Eagles (projected trade with Detroit) – Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia

- My biggest swing in this mock but I think it makes all the sense in the world. The Lions have had ample opportunity to talk positively about Carter as if they were planning to take him, and they just haven't done that. Everybody and their mother are mocking Illinois CB Devon Witherspoon to Detroit, but with Carter on the board I'm buying into the belief that Philadelphia wants to move up for the disruptive defensive lineman. Detroit moves down, picks up some extra assets, and can still grab a great player at 10.

#7.) Las Vegas Raiders – Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon

#8.) Atlanta Falcons – Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech

- A lot of people are connecting Atlanta to Texas RB Bijan Robinson, but with Tyler Allgeier already in the fold I feel like drafting Robinson here feels...incorrect. I'm sure I'll be wrong. But in this mock Wilson is available I think this is probably his floor.

#9.) Chicago Bears – Paris Johnson, OT, Ohio State

- Had Carter or Wilson fallen this far I would've pegged one of them to Chicago. As is I think they take the top offensive tackle in the draft to better protect Justin Fields. (And the Cardinals weep...)

#10.) Detroit Lions (projected trade with Philadelphia – Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois

- Detroit trades down and still manages to get their guy. I thought about it for quite a while and I think unless Detroit actually trades up for someone like Will Anderson Jr., there isn't a player worth taking at 6 that the Lions couldn't probably get a little later while still picking up extra assets. Biggest wrench in this potentially happening is if Las Vegas takes Witherspoon instead of Gonzalez, but in that case I would have Detroit taking Gonzalez instead.

#11.) Arizona Cardinals (projected trade with Tennessee) – Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia

- Reportedly Cardinals QB Kyler Murray has been telling the team he wants them to draft an offensive lineman, ideally Paris Johnson. Johnson isn't available at this point, but Jones would be a nice consolation prize.

#12.) Houston Texans – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State

#13.) Green Bay Packers – Peter Skoronski

- I've seen a number of mock drafters connecting Green Bay to a tight end but I just don't see it. If Green Bay wasn't going to draft an offensive weapon in the first round when they had Aaron Rodgers, I don't see them doing it without Rodgers. I can and do see them bolstering their aging offensive line. I could also see a defensive lineman here like Lukas Van Ness.

#14.) Detroit Lions (projected trade with New England) – Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

- Surprised? Me too, a little bit. But as I kept looking at this mock as I was compiling it I couldn't shake the feeling that Brad Holmes tends to target guys he wants, isn't afraid to trade up to get them, and has been pretty vocal about how he doesn't agree with the common belief that drafting running backs in the first round isn't a wise choice. Especially if they're able to trade down from 6, Detroit will have extra ammo to trade up at some point and get the guy they want. And I think Robinson is that guy.

#15.) New York Jets – Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee

- If Jaxon Smith-Njigba is still on the board I could also see him being the pick here.

#16.) Washington Commanders – Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Texas A&M

- Washington is linked heavily to taking a cornerback. Here's my guess as to which one they select.

#17.) Pittsburgh Steelers – Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland

- If Darnell Wright were still on the board I think he's the pick.

#18.) New England Patriots (projected trade with Detroit) – Lukas Van Ness, Edge, Iowa

- Had I not predicted a trade between Detroit and New England, Van Ness would've been my selection for the Patriots regardless. In this case, Bill Belichick does his thing by trading down and getting extra assets while still getting the guy he wants.

#19.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma

- If Bijan Robinson were still on the board, he'd be the pick here.

#20.) Seattle Seahawks – Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College

- Tyler Lockett 2.0

#21.) Los Angeles Chargers – Myles Murphy, Edge, Clemson

#22.) Baltimore Ravens – Joey Porter, Jr., CB, Penn State

- Heresy to see the son of a Steelers legend wind up on their most hated rival, but it makes too much sense at this point.

#23.) Minnesota Vikings – Jordan Addison, WR, USC

- Adam Thielen is gone, so the Vikings have both a short and long-term need at WR. Wouldn't be surprised to see this be the spot Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker goes if he gets drafted in the first round at all.

#24.) Jacksonville Jaguars - Brian Branch, DB, Alabama

#25.) New York Giants – Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame

- New York steals Mayer one pick before their rivals can get him.

#26.) Dallas Cowboys – Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah

#27.) Buffalo Bills – Quentin Johnston

- Bills are being linked by a lot of folks to a wide receiver and this is the one that makes the most sense to me.

#28.) Cincinnati Bengals – Calijah Kancey, DT, Pitt

- A little bit of a fall for Kancey but I think his measurables really will cause a number of teams to pass on him.

#29.) New Orleans Saints – Adetomiwa Adeboware, DT, Northwestern

- Just a gut feeling.

#30.) Philadelphia Eagles – Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama

- I don't believe Philly will have to include this pick in any trade up like I mocked earlier. Would be a bit of an overpay. So they stick here and take a replacement for Miles Sanders.

#31.) Kansas City Chiefs – Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan

There we have it. Going bold with my prediction that the Detroit Lions will not make their picks at 6 and 18 as they're currently slated to. Just a gut feeling I couldn't get past. I also would not be shocked if they trade up instead of down from pick #6, nor would I be shocked if they trade back into the back half of the first round thanks to their multiple second round picks they have in hand.

I am a little surprised I ultimately have Georgia's Nolan Smith falling out of the first round, but I just couldn't find a place for him that I felt more strongly about than the other picks. (Watch him go Top 10 now.)

Hope you've enjoyed the Mocking the Detroit Lions 2023 Draft series and this, the Keck Thoughts Official 2023 NFL Mock Draft. And enjoy the draft!

MOCKING THE DETROIT LIONS 2023 DRAFT - SCENARIO #3: TRADING UP FROM 6

Welcome back to the "Mocking the Detroit Lions 2023 Draft" series here on Keck Thoughts. With this year's draft less than a day away this will be our final scenario exercise. Last week in our fictional role as Detroit Lions GM we traded down from 6th overall to 11th while picking up some additional draft capital. Today we do the opposite and try a scenario where we see what Detroit could do if they were to trade up from the 6th overall pick to somewhere in the Top 5 picks of the first round.

As is standard now, below is the explanation for how I handle mock draft simulations in this series:

• I try to think along the lines of Lions GM Brad Holmes and Head Coach Dan Campbell...but ultimately I'll be making a lot of picks with what I think just makes sense given the circumstances.

• Due to the nature of mock draft simulators being an algorithm and subject to randomness, let's keep in mind that some players may fall in these simulations and be available to me when they probably won't be available for Detroit in real life. Each site also has their own rankings for the players in the draft, so there will be some variance in that alone. So if a guy like Darnell Washington somehow falls to me in the 3rd round, I won't be passing on him just because I think it's unrealistic for him to fall that far.

• Last week we utilized Pro Football Network's Mock Draft Simulator. I've decided for our third and final exercise to utilize a third different simulator and go with Pro Football Focus's mock draft simulator just for more variance, and since I've been referencing PFF's rankings in this series it will be more efficient for me to just use their system.

• In the past I've tried compiling a Draft Needs list to help us along the way, but after two years of Brad Holmes drafting for the Lions, we've learned that Holmes tends to draft on a best-player basis. Alternatively he often times targets a guy he wants and he goes and gets him, such as trading up for Jameson Williams last year. Holmes has even said they won't have a depth chart in the draft room with them, saying, "I just think you can make a lot of mistakes with that. I've been in regimes in the past that have had a depth chart in the draft room, and I've just never been a fan of that." So I will not be beholden to drafting for need if there is a clear best player available sitting in front of me during these exercises.

Same caveat as always: this exercise is for fun. I'm not worried about my accuracy being judged too harshly. 

This is more of a thought exercise to see who the Lions might have available to them and who they might draft in reality. In 2021 I did three different exercises, three different scenarios, and at various points in those exercises I had Detroit draft Amon-Ra St. Brown, Alim McNeil, and Levi Onwuzurike, all of whom Detroit actually did draft that April. That's the kind of thing I'm talking about here. 

If you just want to see the snapshot of the mock simulation, the results are listed below. After that (and after the jump) I've written out a more detailed summary of how the simulation unfolded and my thinking behind each pick. Enjoy!

DRAFT RESULTS:

MOCKING THE DETROIT LIONS 2023 DRAFT - SCENARIO #2: TRADING DOWN FROM 6

Welcome back to the "Mocking the Detroit Lions 2023 Draft" series here on Keck Thoughts. Earlier this week we kicked off the series by doing a mock draft simulation where in our fictional role as Detroit Lions GM we made no trades and made our first round picks at 6 and 18. Today we do our second scenario where we see what Detroit could be looking at if they were to trade down from the 6th overall pick to later in the first round.

As is standard now, below is the explanation for how I handle mock draft simulations in this series:

• I try to think along the lines of Lions GM Brad Holmes and Head Coach Dan Campbell...but ultimately I'll be making a lot of picks with what I think just makes sense given the circumstances.

• Due to the nature of mock draft simulators being an algorithm and subject to randomness, let's keep in mind that some players may fall in these simulations and be available to me when they probably won't be available for Detroit in real life. Each site also has their own rankings for the players in the draft, so there will be some variance in that alone. So if a guy like Darnell Washington somehow falls to me in the 3rd round, I won't be passing on him just because I think it's unrealistic for him to fall that far.

• As I mentioned in the previous entry, we used The Draft Network's Mock Draft Machine for our first scenario but it was too buggy for my liking and crashed when I tried to save the results, so going forward we'll be utilizing Pro Football Network's Mock Draft Simulator.

• In the past I've tried compiling a Draft Needs list to help us along the way, but after two years of Brad Holmes drafting for the Lions, we've learned that Holmes tends to draft on a best-player basis. Alternatively he often times targets a guy he wants and he goes and gets him, such as trading up for Jameson Williams last year. Holmes has even said they won't have a depth chart in the draft room with them, saying, "I just think you can make a lot of mistakes with that. I've been in regimes in the past that have had a depth chart in the draft room, and I've just never been a fan of that." So I will not be beholden to drafting for need if there is a clear best player available sitting in front of me during these exercises.

Same caveat as always: this exercise is for fun. I'm not worried about my accuracy being judged too harshly. 

This is more of a thought exercise to see who the Lions might have available to them and who they might draft in reality. In 2021 I did three different exercises, three different scenarios, and at various points in those exercises I had Detroit draft Amon-Ra St. Brown, Alim McNeil, and Levi Onwuzurike, all of whom Detroit actually did draft that April. That's the kind of thing I'm talking about here. 

If you just want to see the snapshot of the mock simulation, the results are listed below. After that (and after the jump) I've written out a more detailed summary of how the simulation unfolded and my thinking behind each pick. Enjoy!

DRAFT RESULTS: