The Official Keck Thoughts 2022 Mock NFL Draft

It's Draft Day. Follow Sonny Weaver Jr.'s lead and do what's best for the team.

It's time for the Official Keck Thoughts 2022 Mock Draft! As always these are my predictions for where I think teams will pick players. Unlike last year, I'm not going to project any trades in this year's mock. This year's draft is already incredibly unpredictable that projecting any trades will just cause even more of a headache. That said, as a Lions fan, I will note that I think they try to trade up for someone, but we'll get to that later.

In 2020 I correctly guessed 10 players to the team that drafted them. Last year that fell down to a measly 7. Not so hot. Let's see if I can do better this year. 

KECK THOUGHTS 2021 NFL MOCK DRAFT

#1.) Jacksonville Jaguars – Travon Walker, Edge, Georgia

- I'm buying the hype that Jacksonville GM Trent Baalke loves Walker's measurables and potential, but there is a part of me that is expecting a surprise pick of Kayvon Thibodeaux.

#2.) Detroit Lions – Aidan Hutchinson, Edge, Michigan

- This one I've gone back and forth on all day because it seems like the local Lions beat writers are split on who Brad Holmes and Co. draft. The Athletic's Chris Burke & Nick Baumgardner and Detroit News' Justin Rogers predicted Detroit taking Kayvon Thibodeaux, while the Detroit Free Press's Dave Birkett and MLive's Kyle Meinke predict Hutchinson. My gut is telling me Thibodeaux but I'm going to follow my head and say the consensus in Allen Park is Hutchinson.

#3.) Houston Texans – Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State

- Another tough pick as there's a lot of belief Houston could take Derek Stingley Jr. here, but I think they're more likely to try to trade back into the Top 10 to get Stingley later.

#4.) New York Jets – Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, CB, Cincinnati

- If Thibodeaux doesn't go to the Lions, I could see him landing with the Jets here.

#5.) New York Giants – Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State

- New York is heavily linked to drafting a tackle. I'm guessing it's Cross.

#6.) Carolina Panthers – Evan Neal, OT, Alabama

#7.) New York Giants – Kayvon Thibodeaux, Edge, Oregon

- There's been chatter in the media that the Giants were rubbed the wrong way by Thibodeaux in meetings, but I think that's a smokescreen, hoping he'd fall to them.

#8.) Atlanta Falcons – Drake London, WR, USC

- Last year the Lions had the worst WR corps in the NFL, now the Falcons hold that distinction. They badly need to draft a WR, so I'm predicting they take the guy who can best go up and get the ball. Wouldn't shock me if Jermaine Johnson or Thibodeaux winds up here either.

#9.) Seattle Seahawks – Jermaine Johnson, Edge, Florida State

- Sounds like Seattle could be a landing spot for Thibodeaux or Stingley, too. This could also be the spot where Houston trades up to take Stingley.

#10.) New York Jets – Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama

- The Jets were in on the bidding for Tyreek Hill. After missing out on him, they can take a player a lot like Hill and for a fraction of the price.

#11.) Washington Commanders – Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State

#12.) Minnesota Vikings – Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame

- I think Hamilton is going to be a very good NFL player for a long time, so if he lands in Minnesota I won't be happy. But it makes too much sense not to happen.

#13.) Houston Texans – Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU

- I have Houston getting their guy by just sitting still, a lesson Texans GM Nick Caserio can take from his long-time mentor Bill Belichick, who stayed at pick 15 last year and still got the QB he needed.

#14.) Baltimore Ravens – Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia

- Seems like this is the pick most often mocked to Baltimore, so let's ride with it.

#15.) Philadelphia Eagles – Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State

- The Eagles need a few things, and wide receiver is one of them.

#16.) New Orleans Saints – Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa

- This is higher than I think Penning should go, but New Orleans needs to replace Terron Armstead. I could see Central Michigan's Bernhard Raimann being the pick here, too.

#17.) Los Angeles Chargers – Zion Johnson, OT, Boston College

- I have genuinely no idea what the Chargers are going to do.

#18.) Philadelphia Eagles – George Karlaftis, Edge, Purdue

#19.) New Orleans Saints – Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt

- I don't think the Saints absolutely need to take a QB in this draft, but the fit would be pretty good between them and Pickett.

#20.) Pittsburgh Steelers – Malik Willis, QB, Liberty

- Another pick that lots of people are predicting based on Mike Tomlin's apparent interest in Willis.

#21.) New England Patriots – Quay Walker, LB, Georgia

- In a little bit of a surprise I think Belichick takes Walker over Utah's Devin Lloyd. 

#22.) Green Bay Packers – Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas

- Green Bay needs help at WR after losing Davante Adams and Marques Valdez-Scandling this offseason, but it's also well-known they don't take receivers in the first round. I think they will this year, and I don't think they can wait.

#23.) Arizona Cardinals – Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State

#24.) Dallas Cowboys – Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah

- Dallas is often mocked an offensive lineman, but I think if Lloyd falls this far they can't not pair him with Micah Parsons.

#25.) Buffalo Bills – Breece Hall, RB, Iowa State

- Another oft-mocked pick, which I don't understand, but sure let's go with it.

#26.) Tennessee Titans – Kenyon Green, OG, Texas A&M

#27.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia

- I think Tampa Bay could very well take a safety or corner with this pick, but Wyatt fills a need especially if Ndamukong Suh doesn't return.

#28.) Green Bay Packers – Daxton Hill, DB, Michigan

#29.) Kansas City Chiefs – Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington

- I don't think Kansas City uses either of these two first round picks; I think bundle them to trade up to get a wide receiver. But since I'm not projecting trades, let's give them McDuffie.

#30.) Kansas City Chiefs – Boye Mafe, Edge, Minnesota

#31.) Cincinnati Bengals – Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa

- Cincinnati is a question mark to me, but even after addressing their porous offensive line in free agency they can still add a Day One starter like Linderbaum to it.

#32.) Detroit Lions – Lewis Cine, S, Georgia

- This pick is an even bigger question mark than what Detroit will do at #2. Does Detroit take a QB, especially if Pickett or Willis falls here like I've seen them do in some notable mock drafts? Do the Lions take Georgia's Nakobe Dean? A wide receiver? All I know is in this mock Cine is still available and he's the best marriage of need and talent.

All that said about Detroit's 32nd overall pick, as touched on earlier, if I was projecting trades I think Detroit tries to bundle pick 32 with next year's 1st they got from Los Angeles in the Matthew Stafford trade, and try to trade up for a quarterback or a wide receiver. My best guess would be they try to trade up for Malik Willis. So for funsies, my bold prediction is that Detroit trades pick 32 and next year's 1st from the Rams to the New Orleans Saints for pick 19 so they can steal Malik Willis away from Pittsburgh.

MOCKING THE DETROIT LIONS 2022 DRAFT

As the old saying goes, better late than never!

For two years now in the lead-up to the annual NFL Draft I have written some blog posts where I do a mock draft simulation exercise to see what scenarios the Detroit Lions could possibly see as the draft unfolds.

Typically I perform multiple versions of these exercises, but this year due to my busy work and life schedule, I was only to do a single simulation. Like last year I opted to utilize The Draft Network's mock draft simulator.

What I'm attempting to do is play out scenarios (or in this year's case, a scenario) for the Lions, pretend like I'm Lions General Manager Brad Holmes, and draft players that fill out both Detroit's short and long-term needs.

In addition to today's "Mocking the Draft" exercise, I will also be posting The Official 2022 Keck Thoughts Mock Draft in a separate post.

I think it's worth reinforcing that the mock draft I'm posting separately is what I think will happen, not what I want to happen or would do if I were GM.

Some ground rules for how I performed today's mock draft simulation: 

- Once again I tried to think along the lines of Lions GM Brad Holmes and Head Coach Dan Campbell...but ultimately I'll be making a lot of picks with what I think just makes sense given the circumstances.

- Due to the nature of these mock draft simulators being an algorithm and subject to randomness, let's keep in mind that some players may fall in these simulations and be available to me when they probably won't be available for Detroit in real life. Each site also has their own rankings for the players in the draft, so there will be some variance in that alone. So if a guy like Quay Walker somehow falls to me in the 3rd round, I won't be passing on him just because I think it's unrealistic for him to fall that far.

- As part of the exercise I will be doing my best to address the needs of the Detroit Lions' roster. After consulting multiple websites to see what they believe Detroit's needs are, I compiled a list and tweaked it a smidge with my own thoughts on what their needs are to give myself a final "Team Needs" list that I'll do my best to address. Positions have been listed in order of most-needed to least-need, and that list of Team Needs will be listed with each scenario as a refresher and so we can see how well (or how poorly) I did in addressing those needs. Once again let's be honest: the Lions need help almost everywhere after going 3-13-1 last season. Offensive line is maybe the one area they don't need an immediate injection of talent.

I think we all know that mock drafts are typically fruitless endeavors and usually land somewhere between being 10% to 20% correct since there are just so many variables and random things that can happen in a draft. But as I said, this is for fun. So I'm not worried about my accuracy being judged too harshly.

As mentioned before, this is more of a thought exercise to see who the Lions might have available to them and who they might draft in reality. Last year I did three different exercises, three different scenarios, and at various points in those exercises I had Detroit draft Levi Onwuzurike, Alim McNeil, and Amon-Ra St. Brown, all of whom Detroit actually did draft last April. That's the kind of thing I'm talking about here.

Ok! Now that THAT long introduction is done, let's get to the mocking!

DETROIT LIONS MOCK DRAFT SCENARIO: Sticking at #2

Team Needs: S, DE, LB, WR, CB, DT, QB, TE, RB, OL

Draft Results:

With the 1st overall pick, the Jacksonville Jaguars selected Georgia edge Travon Walker, leaving me with a decision to make between Aidan Hutchinson and Kayvon Thibodeaux, or possibly trading down.

The New York Giants did call offering the 5th overall pick, their 2nd round pick (36th overall), and two 3rd rounders (67th and 81st overall) – a fair trade, with slightly more value coming to Detroit, but in this mock I’m staying put at #2. (In reality that's absolutely a trade Detroit should be making though, for obvious reasons).

Reading the tea leaves, it seems like Allen Park might be split between Hutchinson and Thibodeaux. Some in the media think Brad Holmes wants Thibodeaux, especially after spending significant resources on scouting him; while most others think Hutchinson is the top-rated player in the draft and Detroit should jump on him. 

I’m of the mind that Hutchinson is the best player in the draft, with the higher floor than any other edge rusher in the draft. So even though I can absolutely see Detroit opting for the potentially higher ceiling of Thibodeaux, I’m playing it safe with the #2 pick and taking the hometown boy, who should be a perfect culture fit with what Holmes and Campbell are building in Motown.

Round 1 (Pick #2): Aidan Hutchinson, Edge, Michigan

 

For the 32nd pick, I get a couple of trade offers. Jacksonville oddly calls me offering their 3rd round pick (65th overall), their 7th round pick (235th overall), and their 2022 3rd round pick, which falls well short of equaling value on the draft pick trade value chart. Pittsburgh calls offering a 2nd round pick (52nd overall), a 4th round pick (138st overall), a 6th (208th overall), and a 7th (225th overall) which is even less value than Jacksonville’s offer, but had me considering it for a hot second because I wouldn’t mind picking up a 4th round pick to make up for the one Detroit gave up last year when they traded up to draft Derrick Barnes. Ultimately though neither offer is enough value, so I’m staying put. 

Looking at available options we have a hard decision to make. Three of the top quarterbacks in the class are still available in Pitt's Kenny Pickett, Cincinnati's Desmond Ridder, and North Carolina's Sam Howell. All three have been mocked to the Lions in mock drafts I’ve read the past few months. I find it unlikely Pickett would still be available at 32, but Ridder and Howell I easily see. I do love me some Desmond Ridder, and I’m a proponent of drafting a QB with the 32nd pick to lock in that 5th year of team control for first-round picks.

There was a HUGE run on wide receivers in this simulation's 1st round which all but takes a WR off the table for us at this pick. Ohio State’s Garrett Wilson, USC’s Drake London, Alabama’s Jameson Williams, Ohio State’s Chris Olave, Arkansas’s Treylon Burks, Penn State’s Jahan Dotson, and Western Michigan’s Skyy Moore all got drafted between picks 8 and 29. That does leave George Pickens and Christian Watson, two WRs I very much like, on the board, but WR isn't as big a need as some other positions after the emergence of Amon-Ra St. Brown, the trade for Josh Reynolds, and the free agent signing of DJ Chark. 

Detroit also badly needs reinforcement on the defensive side of the ball and there are some appealing options available including Utah linebacker Devin Lloyd, Georgia linebacker Nakobe Dean, Georgia linebacker Quay Walker, Georgia safety Lewis Cine, Penn State safety Jaquan Brisker, and Michigan edge David Ojabo (who’s recovering from a torn Achilles and likely will be out the entire 2022 season). 

Lloyd and Dean have some injury concerns, plus Dean is small for a LB even though he’s awesome. Walker has been shooting up mock draft boards lately and has been connected to Detroit sometimes. Lions LB coach Kelvin Sheppard even ran drills at Georgia’s Pro Day so he was working very closely with Dean and Walker that day. Cine and Brisker would fill a huge hole at the other starting safety position next to Tracy Walker, and Ojabo could be a great value play. 

Ultimately I look at the options I’ll still have on the board when I pick again in two picks and decide to lock in that extra year of team control for a quarterback who could be Jared Goff’s apprentice in 2022 or possibly even overtake him during the season: Kenny Pickett. Pickett visited Allen Park for one of Detroit’s "Top 30" visits, they would have had a day during Senior Bowl week to coach him when the Jets and Lions’ staffs swapped players for a day, and he’s the most pro ready QB in the draft. I’ll reiterate that I don’t think Pickett falls to 32, but Detroit’s done their due diligence in case he does. QB also isn't the biggest need the Lions have, but I don't believe Goff is the long-term answer for Detroit even if Holmes and Campbell think the world of him. So Pickett is the pick.

Round 1 (Pick #32): Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt

For the 34th pick I got more trade calls. Philly called offering a 2nd (51st overall), a 4th (124th overall), and a 7th (237th) which was very shy of true value for pick 34 (though again I liked that 4^th round pick). New England called offering a 2nd (54th overall) and a 3rd (85th overall) which was closer to full value but was still somewhat shy. I opt to stay at 34.

Jacksonville took Devin Lloyd at 33 which is a bit of a bummer because he would’ve been my pick if he made it one more spot, but I still have Dean, Cine, Walker, Ojabo, and Brisker available as well as some WR options like Pickens and Watson. For the value and to fill the team need, I’m going with Lewis Cine to shore up that secondary. Not only was Cine highly productive and is a natural fit for the defense Aaron Glenn runs, his athleticism is off the charts. For those familiar with Kent Lee Platte's "Relative Athletic Score", Cine scored a 9.92 RAS (out of a possible 10), which ranked as the 8th-best for a free safety since 1987.

Round 2 (Pick #34): Lewis Cine, S, Georgia

Lots of very good players went off the board between picks 34 and 66, including Pickens and Watson, but plenty of good options are still there. Best available players facing us at pick 66 include Wyoming linebacker Chad Muma, Colorado State tight end Trey McBride, Wisconsin linebacker Leo Chanel, Oklahoma linebacker Brian Asomoah, Kentucky guard Darian Kinnard, and Memphis wide receiver Calvin Austin. For me this is an easy pick, which is Chad Muma. He fits a big need as a stack linebacker and he’s another strong athlete, scoring a 9.77 RAS (56th-best out of 2419 linebackers since 1987). If Muma hadn’t been available I probably would’ve opted for Chanel to hit that LB spot, who’s probably even better than Muma at run defense and blitzing, but isn’t as strong in pass coverage.

Round 3 (Pick #66): Chad Muma, LB, Wyoming

A bit of a run on WR happened not long before our pick here at 97, with Memphis’ Calvin Austin III going at 86, Boise State’s Khalil Shakur going at 87, Kentucky’s Wen’Dale Robinson going at 88, and Cincinnati’s Alec Pierce going at 89. That’s fine with me, as a WR that has been linked to Detroit decently often by Lions beat writers is still available: South Alabama’s Jalen Tolbert. Tolbert was on the Lions’ Senior Bowl squad, so the staff is already familiar with him. By all accounts he had a strong week of practice in Mobile, he’d fit a need for the Lions as a possible X receiver, and he’s a good athlete having scored an 8.62 RAS (386th-best out of 2785 WR since 1987). 

Round 3 (Pick #97): Jalen Tolbert, WR, South Alabama

 

And now…we wait. It’s a long stretch of 80 picks between Lions’ selections as it currently stands, which is why it would behoove Detroit to make a trade and grab any kind of 4^th round pick sometime this weekend. When it’s our turn on the clock again, the best players on the board are: Michigan running back Hassan Haskins, Cincinnati running back Jerome Ford, Sam Houston State cornerback Zyon McCollum, Oregon safety Verone McKinley III, and BYU running back Tyler Allgeier. Allgeier is the one who catches my attention because on The Draft Network’s rankings he’s ranked as their 217th-best player, but The Athletic’s Dane Brugler (whom I think highly of) has Allgeier rated as his 4th-best RB. And while Allgeier scored a decent RAS of 7.4, Kent Lee Platte has repeatedly said Allgeier might be his favorite player in the draft. It’s good enough for me, especially in the 5th round.

Round 5 (Pick #177): Tyler Allgeier, RB, BYU

 

The wait between Detroit’s 5th and 6th selections in the draft is significantly shorter, as we’re up again at pick 181. A lot of the same names are still on the board, including Zyon McCollum, whom Brugler ranks as his 14th-best cornerback and projects as a 3rd or 4th-round pick. That’s a value pick for us late in the 5th round.

Round 5 (Pick #181): Zyon McCollum, CB, Sam Houston State

Detroit’s final selection of the 2022 Draft is pick 217, as they gave up their 7th round pick in the trade with Denver last season for Trinity Benson. Lots of directions we could go here, and I’m going to take a path I’ve seen favored by local beat writers and some fans by drafting Michigan State fullback/tight end Connor Heyward. Heyward was a long-time starter for the Spartans, so he has the local tie which is nice. More importantly he fills a need for Detroit as a tight end who can catch passes but also block. Like Jalen Tolbert, Heyward was on the Lions’ Senior Bowl squad and it seemingly was a good fit between player and coaching staff. I think he’d be a perfect culture fit for the Lions but also fit the aforementioned need. Easy pick to make.

Round 6 (Pick #1217): Connor Heyward, FB/TE, Michigan State

OVERVIEW

Overall I think this is a very solid draft class for the Lions. They get the consensus top-rated player in the draft at a major position of need with Hutchinson, they get one of the top quarterbacks in the class as a possible long-term solution at the most important position in the game, and they get multiple Day One contributors in Cine and Muma. Tolbert can be brought along at his own speed as a rookie, and Allgeier, McCollum, and Heyward can contribute as special teamers and depth.

It's not super sexy, but provided players stay healthy, this would be another very strong draft class that could help Detroit's rebuild.

I hope you enjoyed this exercise, as I enjoyed going through it and writing up this post. You can see my post with my Official Keck Thoughts Mock Draft on its own post, and we'll see how it all shakes out in what is sure to be one of the more unpredictable NFL Drafts in some time. Thanks for reading!