The NBA free agency period is less than 48 hours away, so as you might have gathered from the title of this post, we're going to be looking at a number free agents who will be available when 12:10am Eastern Standard Time hits on July 1st. This is not a comprehensive list (as there are over 120 free agents) but is instead a list of big-name and small-name players who would actually make sense as potential Pistons targets in my eyes. We'll be tackling them by breaking down whether or not they're actually realistic targets and why/why not.
A quick primer if you're not 100% solid on the intricacies of NBA free agency, with definitions directly from the NBA's website:
- An unrestricted free agent (UFA) is free to sign with any team, though some unrestricted free agents have options on their existing contracts that, if exercised, may impact their choices.
- A restricted free agent can sign an offer sheet with any team, but the player's original team can retain him by matching the terms of that offer. The original team is said to have the "right of first refusal."
- A team option grants the original team the right to keep a player for another year.
- A player option grants the player the power to decide whether to stay for another year or become a completely unrestricted free agent.
"SNOWBALL'S CHANCE IN HELL" TARGETS
A quick primer if you're not 100% solid on the intricacies of NBA free agency, with definitions directly from the NBA's website:
- An unrestricted free agent (UFA) is free to sign with any team, though some unrestricted free agents have options on their existing contracts that, if exercised, may impact their choices.
- A restricted free agent can sign an offer sheet with any team, but the player's original team can retain him by matching the terms of that offer. The original team is said to have the "right of first refusal."
- A team option grants the original team the right to keep a player for another year.
- A player option grants the player the power to decide whether to stay for another year or become a completely unrestricted free agent.
(In either case, if the option is refused, the player is completely unrestricted, free to sign with any team.)
Now let's break down those free agents, shall we?"SNOWBALL'S CHANCE IN HELL" TARGETS
LeBron James, SF, Cleveland Cavaliers (Player Option): LeBron has the power to opt out opted out of his current contract with the Cavaliers, and while there's a sliver of a chance that he could bolt for another team if he doesn't like how Cleveland's offseason goes, the odds are very much against it. The plan is for LeBron to re-sign with the Cavs on another two-year contract with a player option for the second year (exactly like he signed last year) but for more money. That way he retains the ability to hit free agency again when the salary cap spikes in 2016-17. Even if he were to leave Cleveland again it won't be for Detroit.
LaMarcus Aldridge, PF, Portland Trail Blazers (UFA): ESPN's Chris Broussard reports that it's "a 99.9% chance" that Aldridge leaves. If he does ultimately leave Portland, the common belief is Aldridge wants to return to his home state of Texas. All three Texas-based NBA franchises would very much love to have him, too. He could be the heir to Tim Duncan in San Antonio, or the heir to Dirk Nowitzki in Dallas, or he could be the piece that maybe pushes Houston (who just missed out on signing Chris Bosh last year) over the top in the West.
San Antonio sounds like the leading contender for his services, but the Lakers are apparently moving up the list as free agency nears. Aldridge lives in the Los Angeles area in the offseason and they'd be able to offer him a lot of money, but Aldridge also sounds like he wants to win a title. If he wants to win and get paid he'll go to San Antonio. There's also a good chance Aldridge will seek a one-and-one deal similar to LeBron so he can hit free agency again in 2016-17 in order to maximize his earnings potential. Bottom line: Detroit's nowhere near this conversation.
LaMarcus Aldridge, PF, Portland Trail Blazers (UFA): ESPN's Chris Broussard reports that it's "a 99.9% chance" that Aldridge leaves. If he does ultimately leave Portland, the common belief is Aldridge wants to return to his home state of Texas. All three Texas-based NBA franchises would very much love to have him, too. He could be the heir to Tim Duncan in San Antonio, or the heir to Dirk Nowitzki in Dallas, or he could be the piece that maybe pushes Houston (who just missed out on signing Chris Bosh last year) over the top in the West.
San Antonio sounds like the leading contender for his services, but the Lakers are apparently moving up the list as free agency nears. Aldridge lives in the Los Angeles area in the offseason and they'd be able to offer him a lot of money, but Aldridge also sounds like he wants to win a title. If he wants to win and get paid he'll go to San Antonio. There's also a good chance Aldridge will seek a one-and-one deal similar to LeBron so he can hit free agency again in 2016-17 in order to maximize his earnings potential. Bottom line: Detroit's nowhere near this conversation.
Marc Gasol, C, Memphis Grizzlies (UFA): Gasol will have some suitors like the Los Angeles Lakers and the New York Knicks but it's very unlikely he leaves. Gasol grew up in Memphis while his older brother Pau was playing for the Grizzlies; and while Marc was drafted by the Lakers, he was traded to Memphis before ever playing an NBA game, so he's techincally played his whole NBA career in Memphis. Oh, he's also Memphis' prime target, and they can offer him more money than any other team, so don't expect him to go anywhere.
Kawhi Leonard, SF, San Antonio Spurs (RFA): There is absolutely no way that San Antonio doesn't match any offer sheet Leonard may sign. It wouldn't shock me if San Antonio just straight up offered him a monster extension anyway. Either way, Leonard will be a Spur next season.
Kawhi Leonard, SF, San Antonio Spurs (RFA): There is absolutely no way that San Antonio doesn't match any offer sheet Leonard may sign. It wouldn't shock me if San Antonio just straight up offered him a monster extension anyway. Either way, Leonard will be a Spur next season.
Draymond Green, SF/PF, Golden State Warriors (RFA): See Leonard, Kawhi; especially after winning a title. Golden State is looking for a trade partner to take David Lee and his albatross of a contract so they can offer Green max money, regardless. Even though Green has expressed interest in the past about playing for the Detroit, and recent reports say Green is going to be taking some face-to-face meetings with potential suitors including the Pistons, it all goes back to Golden State matching any offer he gets. If Green ever becomes a Piston it'll most likely be in a few years when he's an UFA.
Jimmy Butler, SG/SF, Chicago Bulls (RFA): See Leonard, Kawhi and Green, Draymond. Reports are that Butler may seek a shorter offer sheet with a player option (by the Collective Bargaining Agreement, any offer sheet he signs must be for a minimum of two years) so he can hit UFA sooner, but it's still highly unlikely Chicago doesn’t match. In the event Chicago doesn't match, Butler isn't going to Detroit.
Kevin Love, PF, Cleveland Cavaliers (Player Option): He says he wants to return to Cleveland, which is understandable because after years toiling in Minnesota he came within two wins of a championship in his first year as a Cav. Love has opted out already and reports say he'll have the Lakers, the Celtics, the Suns and the Trail Blazers seeking his services, and most of those teams could very well offer him a max contract. Portland in particular could be aggressive if Aldridge does bolt. Detroit is nowhere near this conversation even though he'd be a good fit for Stan Van Gundy's three-point heavy offense.
Tim Duncan, C/PF, San Antonio Spurs (UFA): He may be a UFA but he’s also a Spur for life. Either he re-signs or he retires. Recent reports sound like he's coming back for at least one more year.
Greg Monroe, PF/C, Detroit Pistons (UFA): He gone.
Greg Monroe, PF/C, Detroit Pistons (UFA): He gone.
"POSSIBLE BUT UNLIKELY" TARGETS
Paul Millsap, PF, Atlanta Hawks (UFA): Millsap was a guy I wanted Detroit to target when he originally hit free agency in 2013. Instead he signed a below-market two-year contract with the Hawks and flourished to the point where now he's in line to get a big raise from someone. Detroit should be interested but it's doubtful the Hawks will let him leave for nothing. More likely, Atlanta offers Millsap a max contract and he'll take it.
Khris Middleton, SG/SF, Milwaukee Bucks (RFA): Back in the 2013 offseason, former Pistons president/general manager Joe Dumars traded Middleton to the Milwaukee Bucks along with Brandon Knight and Slava Kravtsov in a sign-and-trade for Brandon Jennings. Jennings has been fine for Detroit prior to tearing his Achilles halfway through last season, but Middleton has gone on to become one of the best three-point shooters in the league, shooting 41.4% and 40.7% from beyond the arc in his two seasons as a Buck. Whoops.
I bet Stan Van Gundy would love to have Middleton putting up those numbers in Detroit instead, but Middleton is a RFA so Milwaukee can match any offer sheet he signs. Add in the fact that the trade between Detroit and Milwaukee where the Bucks gave up Ersan Ilyasova for Caron Butler and Shawne Williams was agreed to by Milwaukee expressly so they can waive Butler and Williams to gain more salary cap space in order to re-sign Middleton, and it just doesn't completely add up for a Pistons return for Middleton.
Also worth mentioning this: Van Gundy has publicly stated that Detroit's plan is to first go after a pair of UFA's (whom we'll touch on below) before going after any RFA's, because when a team signs a player to an offer sheet the financial terms of said offer sheet go against that team's salary cap during the 72-hour window where the player's original team can decide to match. (Catch all that? Good.) SVG would rather not tie up that cap space for any sort of time while he can be going after UFA's with no such restrictions.
Also worth mentioning this: Van Gundy has publicly stated that Detroit's plan is to first go after a pair of UFA's (whom we'll touch on below) before going after any RFA's, because when a team signs a player to an offer sheet the financial terms of said offer sheet go against that team's salary cap during the 72-hour window where the player's original team can decide to match. (Catch all that? Good.) SVG would rather not tie up that cap space for any sort of time while he can be going after UFA's with no such restrictions.
Tobias Harris, SF/PF, Orlando Magic (RFA): This small forward/power forward-hybrid turns 23 this summer and is hitting the free agent market after a season that saw him average 17.1 PPG and shoot 36.4% from beyond the arc. While he's a RFA, it increasingly looks like Orlando is open to letting him leave. Detroit makes some sense but isn't a perfect fit, as he's more of a Josh Smith-esque ball stopper. Also take into account what I just said above about tying up cap space for 72 hours. That said, of the five main restricted free agents mentioned in this post, Harris is the most likely to change teams and Detroit makes some sense.
REALISTIC TARGETS
Reggie Jackson, PG, Detroit Pistons (RFA): Only listing him here because now that Detroit has followed protocol and offered Jackson a qualifying offer, he's technically a free agent and could conceivably sign an offer sheet with another team. But Van Gundy traded for Jackson for the purpose of installing him as the point guard of the future so it's highly unlikely Jackson isn't a Piston next season. Jackson once turned down a 4-year, $48 million offer from the Thunder, so expect whatever contract Detroit offers to equal that or better.
A key here is that Detroit will want to contact Jackson immediately when free agency starts and lock down a verbal agreement, thereby allowing Detroit to go after other free agents and actually sign them first, then sign Jackson last. Doing this allows Detroit to go over the salary cap because the CBA allows teams to go over the cap to sign their own players.
DeMarre Carroll, SF, Atlanta Hawks (UFA): The soon-to-be-29-year-old Caroll was a bit of a late-bloomer, only really finding his groove once he became a Hawk two offseasons ago and became a starter. He's averaged double-digit points per game the last two years and has shot 36% or better from three-point range as a Hawk (including 39.5% last season). He's a really good defender and was inarguably the Hawks' best player this past postseason before he got hurt and Atlanta self-destructed against Cleveland.
The Hawks would love to keep him but he's probably in line for a huge raise (he only made $2.5 million last year) and it's doubtful Atlanta can keep both him and Millsap. Van Gundy has said there are two UFA's that are going to be their Day One targets, and it doesn't take Sherlock Holmes to detect that Carroll is one of those targets. If they offer him between $10-$12 million, that might be enough to sign him and insert him into the starting lineup. That said, he's going to be highly sought-after so I'm not banking on them landing him.
A key here is that Detroit will want to contact Jackson immediately when free agency starts and lock down a verbal agreement, thereby allowing Detroit to go after other free agents and actually sign them first, then sign Jackson last. Doing this allows Detroit to go over the salary cap because the CBA allows teams to go over the cap to sign their own players.
DeMarre Carroll, SF, Atlanta Hawks (UFA): The soon-to-be-29-year-old Caroll was a bit of a late-bloomer, only really finding his groove once he became a Hawk two offseasons ago and became a starter. He's averaged double-digit points per game the last two years and has shot 36% or better from three-point range as a Hawk (including 39.5% last season). He's a really good defender and was inarguably the Hawks' best player this past postseason before he got hurt and Atlanta self-destructed against Cleveland.
The Hawks would love to keep him but he's probably in line for a huge raise (he only made $2.5 million last year) and it's doubtful Atlanta can keep both him and Millsap. Van Gundy has said there are two UFA's that are going to be their Day One targets, and it doesn't take Sherlock Holmes to detect that Carroll is one of those targets. If they offer him between $10-$12 million, that might be enough to sign him and insert him into the starting lineup. That said, he's going to be highly sought-after so I'm not banking on them landing him.
Danny Green, SG/SF, San Antonio Spurs UFA): Green has been a very good role player for the Spurs the last four seasons. Like Carroll, Green is a "3-and-D" player that Detroit could sorely use, especially as Green has averaged a 42.3% three-point percentage the last four years. There are some concerns that Green might be a by-product of the excellent system Gregg Popovich has cultivated in San Antonio, but if Detroit wants to take that next step they may need to take a chance on a player like Green and hope he flourishes in Van Gundy's system that relies heavily on three-point shooting.
Green is more likely than not the second UFA target Van Gundy alluded to, and of all the realistic targets, Green is the one I'm most hoping they go after and land. He'll probably get a contract in the $10-$12 million range as well.
Green is more likely than not the second UFA target Van Gundy alluded to, and of all the realistic targets, Green is the one I'm most hoping they go after and land. He'll probably get a contract in the $10-$12 million range as well.
Wesley Matthews, SG, Portland Trailblazers (UFA): Matthews is another great three-point shooter and he'll be an UFA. The only problem is he suffered an Achilles tear in March which presumably will keep him out of games to start the season. Achilles injuries are also some of the toughest to bounce back from, so whomever signs Matthews is taking a chance he can get back to even 90% of where he was the past few seasons. That said, Matthews has never shot worse than 38.2% from behind the arc in his career and he's particularly good at spot-up shooting. If Detroit does go after him, I hope it's at a bit of a discounted rate.
Brandon Bass, C/PF, Boston Celtics (UFA): At 30-years-old Bass would be an ideal target to back up Andre Drummond. He's been durable, he's a fine presence in the post, and he's played for Van Gundy in Orlando so he's a bit of a known quantity. Van Gundy has publicly stated that he'd love to bring back Joel Anthony who was the third-string center last season, so that could mean Bass isn't even a target. He's a still very realistic option, however.
Jae Crowder, SF, Boston Celtics (RFA): Crowder is a RFA but he only made $920,000 last year, so it's entirely possible the Pistons could get him for as much as the mid-level exception, which RealGM.com says will be $5,464,000 for 2015-16. Crowder has recently been getting called a poor man's DeMarre Carroll, and while Crowder needs to improve his three-point shooting a bit, it's not entirely inaccurate. He could be a nice bench piece for the Pistons but I wouldn't want to see him in the starting lineup necessarily.
Brandan Wright, C/PF, Phoenix Suns (UFA): Wright is another guy I wanted the Pistons to go after in free agency in 2013. Wright would be another perfect backup to Drummond (maybe even more so than Bass) because he's a very good rim protector, he can run the floor well and he's very good of the pick 'n roll. Because of those attributes he'd be able to fit the same schemes that Van Gundy seems to want to run with Drummond and Reggie Jackson.
Oh, and if you are into advanced statistics like Player Efficiency Rating (PER), last season Wright ranked 34th in the league, ahead of bigger name players like John Wall, Paul Millsap, Al Jefferson, Chris Bosh and many, many more. It might only take a mid-level exception to get Wright, too.
Omer Asik, C, New Orleans Pelicans (UFA): I've seen Asik's name as a possible target in a few spots, but considering he'll probably command close to eight-figures he may cost too much depending on what other players Detroit goes after. But he does fit a need and would be a fine backup to Drummond, so it's not out of the question.
Marco Belinelli, SG, San Antonio Spurs (UFA): Belinelli is the kind of bench sharpshooter Van Gundy would really want and could really use. He's a career 43% three-point shooter and only made $2.8 million last season. It probably wouldn't take a whole lot to pry him from San Antonio, but he also might feel like he has a good thing going in Texas and decide to take a hometown discount. Still, a very realistic target for Detroit.
Amir Johnson, SF/PF, Toronto Raptors (UFA): Johnson was a 2nd-round draft pick by Joe Dumars back in 2005. At the time he was considered a bit of a project, but after Detroit traded him to Milwaukee for Fabricio Oberto (Remember him? Neither do I.) and Milwaukee later traded him to Toronto for fellow former Piston Carlos Delfino, Johnson eventually became a pretty solid big man. He filled out, gained some post moves and got better on defense. Now he's a free agent and would be a really good backup to Ilyasova and Drummond, though he could very well sign elsewhere to be a starter.
Kosta Koufos, C, Memphis Grizzlies (UFA): Koufos, like Asik, is a guy who's been pegged as a possible backup to Drummond. He's been making $3 million a year the last couple of years in Memphis where he was backing up Marc Gasol. Maybe it'll take a bit of a raise to get him, which I could see Detroit giving him, but I do think there are better fits outs there (like Wright).
Joel Anthony, C, Detroit Pistons (UFA): As mentioned above, SVG has said he'd love to bring Anthony back in the fold. I'd bet Anthony would like that as well, so we can probably expect Anthony to take a veteran's contract once Detroit has wrangled up a bigger target or two.
EARLY PREDICTIONS: As mentioned before, it seems like DeMarre Carroll and Danny Green are options 1A and 1B after Detroit has come to a wink-wink agreement with Reggie Jackson. If I had to guess, I'm betting Detroit is able to snag Danny Green and not DeMarre Carroll. Green could be the odd man out in San Antonio if the Spurs are able to lock down both LaMarcus Aldridge and Kawhi Leonard, whereas Carroll is a top priority for Atlanta and could also be max-offer target for other teams. As far as Drummond's backup, out of all the previously mentioned guys I think Brandan Wright still makes the most sense, so let's predict he ends up in Auburn Hills.
With those players locked up the Pistons can sign some veterans to minimum deals to fill out the roster like the aforementioned Joel Anthony. It would also make sense to bring back PG John Lucas III to fill the same role he did last season while Jennings continues to get healthy.
That leaves Detroit with a roster that looks a somewhat like this:
Centers: Andre Drummond, Brandan Wright, Joel Anthony
Power Forwards: Ersan Ilyasova, Anthony Tolliver, Quincy Miller
Small Forwards: Danny Green, Stanley Johnson, Cartier Martin
Shooting Guards: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Jodie Meeks
Point Guards: Reggie Jackson, Brandon Jackson, Spencer Dinwidde, John Lucas III
(Note: In this prediction I'm assuming that Pistons second-round draft pick Darrun Hilliard will begin his career playing for the Grand Rapids Drive, the Pistons' Developmental League affiliate.)
This is an incredibly important free agent period for the Pistons as Van Gundy continues to reshape the team in his image. If they bring Jackson back and can snag one of their primary SF targets, Detroit could be a real playoff contender in 2016.
Who do you think Detroit should go after? Who do you think are the most realistic options? Hit up the comments section or comment on Facebook if you'd like. Again, this blog is also meant to be a forum where we can talk about these topics.
Oh, and if you are into advanced statistics like Player Efficiency Rating (PER), last season Wright ranked 34th in the league, ahead of bigger name players like John Wall, Paul Millsap, Al Jefferson, Chris Bosh and many, many more. It might only take a mid-level exception to get Wright, too.
Omer Asik, C, New Orleans Pelicans (UFA): I've seen Asik's name as a possible target in a few spots, but considering he'll probably command close to eight-figures he may cost too much depending on what other players Detroit goes after. But he does fit a need and would be a fine backup to Drummond, so it's not out of the question.
Marco Belinelli, SG, San Antonio Spurs (UFA): Belinelli is the kind of bench sharpshooter Van Gundy would really want and could really use. He's a career 43% three-point shooter and only made $2.8 million last season. It probably wouldn't take a whole lot to pry him from San Antonio, but he also might feel like he has a good thing going in Texas and decide to take a hometown discount. Still, a very realistic target for Detroit.
Amir Johnson, SF/PF, Toronto Raptors (UFA): Johnson was a 2nd-round draft pick by Joe Dumars back in 2005. At the time he was considered a bit of a project, but after Detroit traded him to Milwaukee for Fabricio Oberto (Remember him? Neither do I.) and Milwaukee later traded him to Toronto for fellow former Piston Carlos Delfino, Johnson eventually became a pretty solid big man. He filled out, gained some post moves and got better on defense. Now he's a free agent and would be a really good backup to Ilyasova and Drummond, though he could very well sign elsewhere to be a starter.
Kosta Koufos, C, Memphis Grizzlies (UFA): Koufos, like Asik, is a guy who's been pegged as a possible backup to Drummond. He's been making $3 million a year the last couple of years in Memphis where he was backing up Marc Gasol. Maybe it'll take a bit of a raise to get him, which I could see Detroit giving him, but I do think there are better fits outs there (like Wright).
Joel Anthony, C, Detroit Pistons (UFA): As mentioned above, SVG has said he'd love to bring Anthony back in the fold. I'd bet Anthony would like that as well, so we can probably expect Anthony to take a veteran's contract once Detroit has wrangled up a bigger target or two.
EARLY PREDICTIONS: As mentioned before, it seems like DeMarre Carroll and Danny Green are options 1A and 1B after Detroit has come to a wink-wink agreement with Reggie Jackson. If I had to guess, I'm betting Detroit is able to snag Danny Green and not DeMarre Carroll. Green could be the odd man out in San Antonio if the Spurs are able to lock down both LaMarcus Aldridge and Kawhi Leonard, whereas Carroll is a top priority for Atlanta and could also be max-offer target for other teams. As far as Drummond's backup, out of all the previously mentioned guys I think Brandan Wright still makes the most sense, so let's predict he ends up in Auburn Hills.
With those players locked up the Pistons can sign some veterans to minimum deals to fill out the roster like the aforementioned Joel Anthony. It would also make sense to bring back PG John Lucas III to fill the same role he did last season while Jennings continues to get healthy.
That leaves Detroit with a roster that looks a somewhat like this:
Centers: Andre Drummond, Brandan Wright, Joel Anthony
Power Forwards: Ersan Ilyasova, Anthony Tolliver, Quincy Miller
Small Forwards: Danny Green, Stanley Johnson, Cartier Martin
Shooting Guards: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Jodie Meeks
Point Guards: Reggie Jackson, Brandon Jackson, Spencer Dinwidde, John Lucas III
(Note: In this prediction I'm assuming that Pistons second-round draft pick Darrun Hilliard will begin his career playing for the Grand Rapids Drive, the Pistons' Developmental League affiliate.)
This is an incredibly important free agent period for the Pistons as Van Gundy continues to reshape the team in his image. If they bring Jackson back and can snag one of their primary SF targets, Detroit could be a real playoff contender in 2016.
Who do you think Detroit should go after? Who do you think are the most realistic options? Hit up the comments section or comment on Facebook if you'd like. Again, this blog is also meant to be a forum where we can talk about these topics.
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