Each day this week (starting today, Tuesday) leading up to the NFL Draft on Thursday I will be posting a mock draft scenario in an attempt to see what players and situations could be available for the Lions in all 7 rounds of this year's draft. I will be doing three different mocks drafts using just one website this year. What I'm attempting to do is play out three different scenarios for the Lions, pretend like I'm new Lions General Manager Brad Holmes, and draft players that fill out both Detroit's short and long-term needs.
Last year I did three mocks using two different websites - The Draft Network and Pro Football Focus -because I didn't have a paid subscription to TDN and thus couldn't make any draft trades. This year I bit the bullet and paid up, so we'll stick with TDN instead of using PFF as well. (Frankly PFF changed their mock draft simulator where other teams aren't actively offering you trades now, too, which I don't like. So we'll be sticking with TDN which will allow us to have the same draft algorithm for all three exercises.
The schedule of things I'll be posting this week is below.
Tuesday (4/27): Scenario #1 - Staying at Pick #7
Wednesday Morning (4/28): Scenario #2 - Trading Down a Little Ways
Wednesday Afternoon (4/28) Scenario #3 - Trading Down Decently Far
Thursday (4/29): The Official 2021 Keck Thoughts Mock Draft
I think it's worth reinforcing that the mock draft I post on Thursday is what I think will happen, not what I want to happen or would do if I were GM.
Some ground rules for how I'll be performing these mock drafts:
- Last year I was cosplaying as Bob Quinn, but this year Detroit has a new General Manager in Brad Holmes and a new Head Coach in Dan Campbell. By all accounts it seems like the two of them are going to be working in tandem to build the team, with Holmes having final say. Because Holmes is new and has never been a GM before we don't have as good a handle on what Holmes looks for in a his players as we did under Quinn. In his time with the Los Angeles Rams as their Director of College Scouting the Rams did draft running backs in the 2nd round a few times, and they were particularly good at finding some gems on defense in the later rounds, like John Johnson III. So for these mock scenarios I'm going to do my best to think like I think Holmes will think.....that's a tongue twister....but ultimately I'll be making a lot of picks with what I think just makes sense given the circumstances.
- Due to the nature of these mock draft simulators being an algorithm and subject to randomness, let's keep in mind that some players may fall in these simulations and be available to me when they probably won't be available for Detroit in real-life. Each site also has their own rankings for the players in the draft, so there will be some variance in that alone. But I'm taking each of these drafts one at a time, as they are, so if a guy like Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah somehow falls to me in the 2nd round in one of these mocks, I won't be passing on him just because I think it's unrealistic for him to fall that far.
- As part of the exercise I will be doing my best to address the needs of the Detroit Lions' roster. After consulting multiple websites to see what they believe Detroit's needs are, I compiled a list and tweaked it a smidge with my own thoughts on what their needs are to give myself a final "Team Needs" list that I'll do my best to address. Positions have been listed in order of most-needed to least-need, and that list of Team Needs will be listed with each scenario as a refresher and so we can see how well (or how poorly) I did in addressing those needs. But let's be honest: the Lions need help everywhere except punter and long snapper. Hell, they even have a need at kicker now. (I won't be drafting a kicker.)
I think we all know that mock drafts are typically fruitless endeavors and usually land somewhere between being 10% to 20% correct since there are just so many variables and random things that can happen in a draft. But as I said, this is for fun. So I'm not worried about my accuracy being judged too harshly.
Ok! Now that THAT long introduction is done, let's get to the mocking!
DETROIT LIONS MOCK DRAFT SCENARIO #1: Staying at #7
Team Needs: WR, OT, LB, S, CB, DT, DE, QB, RB, TE (again, everything)
Draft Results:
The first six picks in this mock simulation went (spoiler alert!) exactly how I expect them do this Thursday.
1.) JAX - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
2.) NYJ - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
3.) SF - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
4.) ATL - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
5.) CIN - Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU
6.) MIA - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
Not only is this how I expect the first six picks to go, I also happen to think this is a best-case scenario for the Lions. With Justin Fields, Trey Lance, Penei Sewell, DeVonta Smith, and Rashawn Slater still available at a minimum, I would anticipate a number of teams below Detroit to be calling with offers to trade up.
And in fact, in our simulation, three teams did call with trade offers. Those offers were:
Carolina: The Panthers offered a 5th round pick (the 151st overall pick) to swap one spot with us. No thank you.
Denver: The Broncos offered their 3rd round pick (71st overall) for us to drop two spots back. This could be a very realistic offer Detroit could receive Thursday night since Fields and Lance are both still available. In theory the Broncos could want to trade up to snag the QB of those two they prefer, leaving Carolina to take whoever is left if they're also jonesing for a QB.
New England: The Patriots offered their 2021 2nd and 2021 4th round picks (46th and 120th overall, respectively). Quite frankly if I were the Lions this would be a non-starter for me. There are two QBs available, one of whom New England probably covets, and all Detroit would get for falling far enough back to miss out on all the blue chip prospects is one additional Day 2 pick and one additional Day 3 pick? No thank you. I'd want New England's 3rd round pick instead of the 4th rounder, or even better, just give me your 2022 1st round pick instead of the 2nd and 4th.
If this were real life I could absolutely see Brad Holmes taking that Denver offer. Only dropping two more spots would guarantee Detroit the ability to snag one of that aforementioned group of Fields, Lance, Sewell, or Slater and they'd pick up another Day 2 pick. Not too shabby.
Alas, in this particular scenario we're playing out we're sticking with the pick at #7. And if I were Holmes and Dan Campbell, I'd be doing laps around Allen Park because the 2nd-best QB in the draft just fell into our laps.
Round 1 (Pick #7): Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
I intend to write a wholly separate blog post about this very topic, but in short I'll just say I think the Detroit Lions will absolutely consider and should consider drafting Justin Fields if he falls to them at #7, even though Detroit has Jared Goff and his big contract on hand. I think Fields is the 2nd-best QB prospect in the draft, the kind of player that would probably be drafted 1st overall in most years. And maybe you think Goff has the chance to be the long-term answer for the Lions, but I don't, so I'd be running the card up to the podium to snag a player I think could be the long-term answer at the most important position in the sport. Let Fields sit behind Goff for the 2021 season, then reap the rewards starting in 2022.
It's also worth noting that Brad Holmes and Lions special assistant Chris Spielman both attended Fields' first pro day at Ohio State, and Detroit sent more representatives to Fields' second pro day. If there wasn't some kind of chance they're actually interested in taking him I don't think they would've bothered with both pro days.
(Note: After I made the Fields selection in this simulation the next 7 picks were Penei Sewell, Trey Lance, Patrick Surtain II, Jaycee Horn, DeVonta Smith, Rashawn Slater, and Christian Darrisaw. Had I traded down with New England I would've missed out on all those players, who would have basically been the tier of players I would want one of. Micah Parsons went to New England at 15, but I very much do not want the Lions to take Micah Parsons and have a legitimate concern that they made trade down and take him in the first round. We'll see.)
Round 2 (Pick #41): Levi Onwuzurike, DT, Washington
In the 2nd round, much like the 1st round, the Lions should be open to anything and everything. So at this juncture I'd be looking at taking the Best Player Available while keeping in mind what positions are deeper than others in this draft. On the board I was looking at LSU WR Terrance Marshall, Miami DE Gregory Rousseau, North Dakota State OT Dillon Radunz, Notre Dame OT Liam Eichenberg, Washington DT Levi Onwuzurike, Purdue WR Rondale Moore, UCF S Richie Grant, and others. If you look at various Big Boards you'll see different guys who might be the BPA at this point. Marshall could be the best player available but this is a deep WR draft and I feel like Detroit can get one in Round 3 or later. Radunz would fill a big need at RT but I feel like The Draft Network's rankings has him rated too highly. A safety would fit a big need but there's a tier of players at that position (Grant, Oregon's Jevon Holland, Indiana's Jamar Johnson) that I think we could get in Round 3, too. The player that most looks like BPA and fills a need and is at a relatively thin position group in this draft is Onwuzurike, so he's the pick.
Round 3 (Pick #72): Richie Grant, S, UCF
As I mentioned in the last pick's writeup, I felt like there was a group of safeties that I could get in the 3rd round and I was right. Oregon's Jevon Holland went right before my pick, which left Grant and Indiana's Jamar Johnson as the two best players available at my pick and at a position of need. With both of them all but guaranteed to be gone before my next selection at 101, I did the easy thing and took Grant, who's the higher rated of the two. (Though I do like Johnson, too.) I am going to miss out on probably the last WR that I'd be comfortable taking in the draft, Clemson's Amari Rodgers, but I do believe safety to be the bigger immediate need and Grant is the better player over Rodgers, too.
Round 3 (Pick #101): Chazz Surratt, LB, UNC
At this juncture the best players on the board were Wisconsin-Whitewater OL Quinn Meinerz (who put up a studly pro day), UNC LB Chazz Surratt, Stanford QB Davis Mills, Tennessee OL Trey Smith, Ohio State RB Trey Sermon, and a number of edge rushers. Meinerz could potentially fill a Day One starter spot at right guard if Detroit wanted to move Halapoulivaati Vaitai back to RT, but I'm not sure they want to do that. Surratt on the other hand could be another immediate starting role player (maybe not immediate starter since Jamie Collins and Alex Anzalone will be the starting LBs), but Surratt fits a need and he's one of the best available. He's the pick.
Round 4 (Pick #112): Jordan Smith, Edge, UAB
Going into our Day 3 picks now, we'd love to be able to nab some players who could theoretically start, but we're also open to taking chances on fliers and high-risk/high-reward players. In that vein a guy like UAB DE Jordan Smith is appealing because he could come in as a situational pass rusher and was fairly dominant in Conference-USA, but he also pled no contest to credit card fraud charges while at the University of Florida. It's a red flag, but he'd also be a potential value pick at #112. In a vacuum, Vanderbilt DE Dayo Odeyingbo would be a huge steal here, but the reason he's available here is because he tore his Achilles in January. In theory Detroit could draft and stash him on IR and hope he recovers fully for next season. There was a smattering of secondary players available but I feel like we can wait until Round 5 to take a flier on one of those. So for now, Jordan Smith is the pick to add to the pass rush with the long-term in mind.
Round 5 (Pick #153): Robert Rochell, CB, Central Arkansas
Heading into the 5th round and our final pick of the draft I had my eye on cornerbacks Ambry Thomas of Michigan and Shakur Brown of Michigan State, both guys who could help contribute immediately to Detroit's secondary from day one. But then I noticed the Central Arkansas's Robert Rochell was also still on the board and if he somehow fell to 153 that would be quite the nice pickup as he has some great attributes and could just need some coaching to become a very nice NFL CB. With Detroit employing Aaron Glenn and Audrey Pleasant to oversee the secondary, I think they could potentially work some magic with Rochell.
COMING TOMORROW:
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