Last year I did three mocks using two different websites - The Draft Network and Pro Football Focus -because I didn't have a paid subscription to TDN and thus couldn't make any draft trades. This year I bit the bullet and paid up, so we'll stick with TDN instead of using PFF as well. (Frankly PFF changed their mock draft simulator where other teams aren't actively offering you trades now, too, which I don't like. So we'll be sticking with TDN which will allow us to have the same draft algorithm for all three exercises.)
The remaining schedule of things I'll be posting this week is below.
Wednesday Evening (4/28) Scenario #3 - Trading Down Decently Far
Thursday (4/29): The Official 2021 Keck Thoughts Mock Draft
I think it's worth reinforcing that the mock draft I post on Thursday is what I think will happen, not what I want to happen or would do if I were GM.
Some ground rules for how I'll be performing these mock drafts:
- Last year I was cosplaying as Bob Quinn, but this year Detroit has a new General Manager in Brad Holmes and a new Head Coach in Dan Campbell. By all accounts it seems like the two of them are going to be working in tandem to build the team, with Holmes having final say. Because Holmes is new and has never been a GM before we don't have as good a handle on what Holmes looks for in a his players as we did under Quinn. In his time with the Los Angeles Rams as their Director of College Scouting the Rams did draft running backs in the 2nd round a few times, and they were particularly good at finding some gems on defense in the later rounds, like John Johnson III. So for these mock scenarios I'm going to do my best to think like I think Holmes will think.....that's a tongue twister....but ultimately I'll be making a lot of picks with what I think just makes sense given the circumstances.
- Due to the nature of these mock draft simulators being an algorithm and subject to randomness, let's keep in mind that some players may fall in these simulations and be available to me when they probably won't be available for Detroit in real-life. Each site also has their own rankings for the players in the draft, so there will be some variance in that alone. But I'm taking each of these drafts one at a time, as they are, so if a guy like Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah somehow falls to me in the 2nd round in one of these mocks, I won't be passing on him just because I think it's unrealistic for him to fall that far.
- As part of the exercise I will be doing my best to address the needs of the Detroit Lions' roster. After consulting multiple websites to see what they believe Detroit's needs are, I compiled a list and tweaked it a smidge with my own thoughts on what their needs are to give myself a final "Team Needs" list that I'll do my best to address. Positions have been listed in order of most-needed to least-need, and that list of Team Needs will be listed with each scenario as a refresher and so we can see how well (or how poorly) I did in addressing those needs. But let's be honest: the Lions need help everywhere except punter and long snapper. Hell, they even have a need at kicker now. (I won't be drafting a kicker.)
I think we all know that mock drafts are typically fruitless endeavors and usually land somewhere between being 10% to 20% correct since there are just so many variables and random things that can happen in a draft. But as I said, this is for fun. So I'm not worried about my accuracy being judged too harshly.
Ok! Let's get to the mocking!
DETROIT LIONS MOCK DRAFT SCENARIO #2: Trading Down a Little Ways
Team Needs: WR, OT, LB, S, CB, DT, DE, QB, RB, TE (again, everything)
Draft Results:
The first six picks in this mock simulation went slightly different than yesterday's exercise did, but ultimately the same six players were taken in the first six picks.
1.) JAX - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
2.) NYJ - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
3.) SF - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
4.) ATL - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
5.) CIN - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
6.) MIA - Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU
I'm skeptical that Waddle and Chase go in that order, but for the sake of this exercise it really doesn't affect what we're going to do as the Lions. The important thing is that Justin Fields and Trey Lance are both available again at 7, and lucky us because that meant we got some trade offers. Let's take a look at those offers real quick:
Carolina: The Panthers offered a 2021 4th round pick (#113 overall) and a 2021 5th round pick (#151 overall) to move up one spot and have Detroit drop down one spot to #8. Not amazing, but not terrible for a one-spot move.
Denver: The Broncos came calling again with a similar offer to what they offered in our last exercise but with a sweetener attached. This time in addition to swapping 1sts and offering their 3rd round pick (71st overall) they also offered a 6th round pick (191st overall). Again this could be a very realistic offer the Lions receive on Thursday night.
New England: And once again the Patriots came calling, ostensibly because they covet one of the two QBs available. This time their offer was actually worse than it was last time. This time they offered a swap of 1sts, their 2nd round pick (46th overall), their 7th round pick (242nd overall), and a 2022 5th round pick. Just......no. No.
And as I said last time, if this were real life I could absolutely see Brad Holmes accepting that offer from Denver. And for the sake of our exercise that's exactly what we're going to do. So I accepted Denver's offer and dropped down two spots to the 9th overall pick and added a Day 2 and a Day 3 pick to my 2021 cache. Not too shabby. Let's look at how it played out.
Round 1 (Pick #10): Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
After I accept Denver’s offer and trade down to 9, the Broncos took Justin Fields at 7 and the Carolina Panthers took Patrick Surtain II at 8. With Trey Lance, Penei Sewell, Jaycee Horn, Rashawn Slater, and DeVonta Smith still on the board the Dallas Cowboys came calling offering up a 4th round pick to swap one spot with us. Considering I would’ve been happy with any of those aforementioned players on the board, I accepted their deal to pick up an additional Day 3 pick. Dallas took Jaycee Horn (whom I wouldn’t have taken anyway), leaving Penei Sewell sitting right there. This could be one of those dream scenarios for Brad Holmes should it happen in real life.
Round 2 (Pick #41): Landon Dickerson, OL, Alabama
At my second pick I get no trade offers and I’m not looking to trade down again necessarily. Best players available are UNC RB Javonte Williams, Alabama OL Landon Dickerson, Washington DT Levi Onwuzurike (whom we took last time), Purdue WR Rondale Moore, North Dakota State OT Dillon Radunz, a bunch of safeties again, and LSU LB Jabril Cox, who was not available at this point in yesterday’s exercise. The two biggest different names between yesterday’s exercise and today’s are Williams and Dickerson. By no means should the Lions be looking to draft a RB this year, so write Williams off. Dickerson though fits another need along the offensive line where he can line up at center or guard. He does have injury concerns, but when healthy he’s one of the best offensive lineman in the class. So instead of taking Onwuzurike again and instead of slightly reaching for a wide receiver, safety, or Jabril Cox, I opt for Dickerson to double up on the offensive line and see if we can truly settle Detroit’s foundation there. (Yes I know the Lions have Halapoulivaati Vaitai already, but odds are he'll get cut after this season.)
Round 3 (Pick #71): Elijah Molden, CB, Washington
Third round now, and thanks to our trade down with Denver we actually have back-to-back picks at 71 and 72. Regrettably I just missed out on some targets I had in my sights like Western Michigan WR D’Wayne Eskridge, Indiana S Jamar Johnson, and LSU LB Jabril Cox. But no matter, still some good names like Washington CB Elijah Molden, USC WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Oklahoma State WR Tylan Wallace. We also have a couple players we took in yesterday’s exercise available again in UCF S Richie Grant and UNC LB Chazz Surratt. I’m hopeful I can get Grant or Surratt again later with pick 101, so at pick 71 I skip either of those guys and opt for Elijah Molden who should be able to come in and compete with Corn Elder for the starting nickel CB spot from Day One, or move to safety if nickel doesn't work out.
Round 3 (Pick #72): Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, USC
And with pick 72 I decide to not ignore the wide receiver position again like I did last time, so it’s between Wallace and St. Brown. To me it’s a toss-up between the two guys, with Wallace being more of an outside receiver and St. Brown being more of a slot guy. I opt for St. Brown because with Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman ostensibly on the roster to be deep threats in Anthony Lynn’s offense, Detroit could probably use a good slot guy. (Note: I accidentally "selected" St. Brown in the TDN system first, but this is the true order I would've made my picks.)
Round 3 (Pick #101): Alim McNeill, DT, NC State
Chazz Surratt was drafted just before our next pick at 101 by the Tennessee Titans, which takes some wind out of my sails, I won’t lie. I might be able to take a flier on some linebackers later, but Surratt was the last LB I would hope the Lions can get. As it stands, we have a troika of defensive tackles available with LSU’s Tyler Shelvin, NC State’s Alim McNeill, and USC’s Jay Tufele all on the board. We also have some lower grade safeties available and some lower grade cornerbacks available, but at this juncture one of those DT’s is the best value. I opt for McNeill because he had better agility numbers than Tufele, but either one would’ve been a fine pick. (For those familiar with Kent Lee Platte’s “Relative Athletic Score” system, McNeill has a RAS of 8.53 compared to Tufele’s 6.46.)
Round 4 (Pick #112): Monty Rice, LB, Georgia
In the 4th round I’m yet again sniped by the team just ahead of me, as Cincinnati nabs Alabama LB Dylan Moses at pick 111. So for Detroit’s pick at 112 I’m left with two QBs - Stanford’s Davis Mills and Texas A&M’s Kellen Mond - atop the board, along with Memphis RB Kennth Gainwell, Boston College TE Hunter Long, and a smattering of defensive players including Jay Tufele still. But my eye wanders to LB where Georgia’s Monty Rice is rated as The Draft Network’s 159th player, but Pro Football Focus has Rice ranked their 110th best player and The Athletic’s Dane Brugler has him rated a 4th-round grade. Rice isn’t the LB I was hoping to get, but at this juncture I’m happy to take him as he’s the kind of player that could thrive in the Lions’ new defense if given the chance.
Round 4 (Pick #138): Brady White, QB, Memphis (real pick would've been an Edge)
Round 5 (Pick #153): JaCoby Stevens, S, LSU
Round 6 (Pick #191): Josh Palmer, WR, Tennessee
And now it’s at this point that something happened with TDN’s mock draft simulator because it started auto-drafting my picks for me and I’m not sure why. The Tennessee Titans had called in with a trade offer and when I declined their offer the system started running on its own and drafted me Memphis QB Brady White at pick 138 and LSU S JaCoby Stevens at pick 153 before I figured out how to stop it. While I don’t mind the JaCoby Stevens pick, the Brady White pick is something I absolutely would not have done. I would have opted for an edge player like Pittsburgh’s Patrick Jones II or Vanderbilt’s Dayo Odeyingbo with that pick. Oh well. As for Palmer, he’s a big WR with good hands and can go up and get the ball as an outside receiver, so he’s worth the 7th round flier.
COMING LATER TODAY:
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