Last year I did three mocks using two different websites - The Draft Network and Pro Football Focus -because I didn't have a paid subscription to TDN and thus couldn't make any draft trades. This year I bit the bullet and paid up, so we'll stick with TDN instead of using PFF as well. (Frankly PFF changed their mock draft simulator where other teams aren't actively offering you trades now, too, which I don't like. So we'll be sticking with TDN which will allow us to have the same draft algorithm for all three exercises.)
The remaining schedule of things I'll be posting this week is below:
Thursday (4/29): The Official 2021 Keck Thoughts Mock Draft
I think it's worth reinforcing that the mock draft I post on Thursday is what I think will happen, not what I want to happen or would do if I were GM.
Some ground rules for how I'll be performing these mock drafts:
- Last year I was cosplaying as Bob Quinn, but this year Detroit has a new General Manager in Brad Holmes and a new Head Coach in Dan Campbell. By all accounts it seems like the two of them are going to be working in tandem to build the team, with Holmes having final say. Because Holmes is new and has never been a GM before we don't have as good a handle on what Holmes looks for in a his players as we did under Quinn. In his time with the Los Angeles Rams as their Director of College Scouting the Rams did draft running backs in the 2nd round a few times, and they were particularly good at finding some gems on defense in the later rounds, like John Johnson III. So for these mock scenarios I'm going to do my best to think like I think Holmes will think.....that's a tongue twister....but ultimately I'll be making a lot of picks with what I think just makes sense given the circumstances.
- Due to the nature of these mock draft simulators being an algorithm and subject to randomness, let's keep in mind that some players may fall in these simulations and be available to me when they probably won't be available for Detroit in real-life. Each site also has their own rankings for the players in the draft, so there will be some variance in that alone. But I'm taking each of these drafts one at a time, as they are, so if a guy like Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah somehow falls to me in the 2nd round in one of these mocks, I won't be passing on him just because I think it's unrealistic for him to fall that far.
- As part of the exercise I will be doing my best to address the needs of the Detroit Lions' roster. After consulting multiple websites to see what they believe Detroit's needs are, I compiled a list and tweaked it a smidge with my own thoughts on what their needs are to give myself a final "Team Needs" list that I'll do my best to address. Positions have been listed in order of most-needed to least-need, and that list of Team Needs will be listed with each scenario as a refresher and so we can see how well (or how poorly) I did in addressing those needs. But let's be honest: the Lions need help everywhere except punter and long snapper. Hell, they even have a need at kicker now. (I won't be drafting a kicker.)
I think we all know that mock drafts are typically fruitless endeavors and usually land somewhere between being 10% to 20% correct since there are just so many variables and random things that can happen in a draft. But as I said, this is for fun. So I'm not worried about my accuracy being judged too harshly.
Ok! Let's get to the mocking!
DETROIT LIONS MOCK DRAFT SCENARIO #3: Trading Down Decently Far
Team Needs: WR, OT, LB, S, CB, DT, DE, QB, RB, TE (again, everything)
Draft Results:
The first six picks in this mock simulation went slightly different than yesterday's exercise did, but ultimately the same six players were taken in the first six picks.
1.) JAX - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
2.) NYJ - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
3.) SF - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
4.) ATL - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
5.) CIN - Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
6.) MIA - Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU
In this simulation the first six picks went in a slightly different way but for the most part was very similar to our other two exercises. The main different being Cincinnati drafted Penei Sewell instead of Ja'Marr Chase, allowing Chase to fall to Miami at 6. Regardless, two quarterbacks were still on the board thus prompting some very similar trade offers as Scenario #1 with one major exception that fits perfectly with our current exercise. Let's take a look at those offers real quick:
Carolina: The Panthers only offered a 2021 4th round pick (113th overall) to swap 1st round picks. Not what we want for this exercise.
Denver: The Broncos came calling yet again only offering their 3rd round pick (71st overall) to swap spots with us. Again not what we want for this exercise.
New England: Here we go. New England comes calling with a strong offer of giving Detroit a 4th round pick in this year’s draft (120 overall) and a 2022 1st round pick to swap 1sts this year. In my opinion there’s a very clear line of demarcation where if I’m dropping below that, I want a future 1st or something equivalent. That line just so happens to end between picks 14 and 15. So this trade is a fine move for Detroit to make. We accept the Patriots' offer of swapping 1sts this year and Detroit getting New England's 2022 1st round pick, which gives the Lions three 1sts for the 2022 Draft. Now let's play out this mock draft simulation!
Round 1 (Pick #15): Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
Now that we’ve traded down to 15, the next 8 picks were Trey Lance to New England, Northwestern OT Rashawn Slater to Carolina, Ohio State QB Justin Fields to Denver, Alabama CB Patrick Surtain II to Dallas, Penn State LB Micah Parsons to New York, South Carolina CB Jaycee Horn to Philadelphia, Virginia Tech OT Christian Darrisaw to Los Angeles, and then a surprise pick in Miami (FL) DE Jaelen Phillips to Minnesota.
This left us with our pick of two great Alabama receivers in Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith. Having to choose between these two receivers is like having to choose between watching Airplane! or Dumb & Dumber. You can’t go wrong with either. In this particular scenario, while I’m surprised to see Waddle fall this far, I’m happy to draft him because he has amazing speed, which is a trait the new Lions regime clearly wants to add at all levels of the team.
Round 2 (Pick #41): Landon Dickerson, OL, Alabama
As I watched the players going off the board leading up to our 2nd round pick, I kept seeing Notre Dame LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah go undrafted. Though I would be shocked if JOK fell as far as he did in this simulation, it would’ve been an incredible steal for Detroit had he fallen all the way to 41. Alas, the Broncos snatched him up one pick before ours. Damn. Best players left on the board include a couple RBs in Clemson’s Travis Etienne and UNC’s Javonte Williams, Alabama OL Landon Dickerson, Notre Dame OT Liam Eichenberg, Oklahoma OL Creed Humphrey, Washington DT Levi Onwuzurike, Ohio State LB Baron Browning, and others. I eschew the flashy RBs cuz we don’t need one and instead opt to go with Landon Dickerson yet again. Yes he has injury concerns, but when healthy I think he could be an All-Pro at right guard playing next to Frank Ragnow for years to come.
Round 3 (Pick #72): Richie Grant, S, UCF
Third round, my desired target of LSU LB Jabril Cox got drafted a few spots ahead of me, so I’m left with top options of UCF S Richie Grant, OSU LB Pete Werner, UNC LB Chazz Surratt, VaTech S Divine Deablo, and handful of WRs in Michigan’s Nico Collins, Western Michigan’s D’Wayne Eskridge, USC’s Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Oklahoma State’s Tylan Wallace. Considering we’ve already addressed WR and OL with our first two picks, I lean towards grabbing Grant (like we did in Scenario #1) to add to the secondary.
Round 3 (Pick #101): Cameron McGrone, LB, Michigan
With our second 3rd round pick, we still have some needs at CB, OT, LB and DL. Best available players on the board were Michigan LB Cam McGrone, LSU DL Tyler Shelvin, NC State DL Alim McNeil, USC DL Marlon Tuipulotu, and Oregon State DE Hamilcar Rashed, Jr. Considering we have another pick coming up at pick 112, I opt for McGrone to address our LB need. McGrone has the potential to be a very good sideline-to-sideline LB provided he stays healthy.
Round 4 (Pick #112): Alim McNeill, DT, NC State
We have two picks in the 4th round courtesy of our trade down with the Patriots. Ideally I’d still like to address defense because we haven’t touched the defensive line, and we could use a CB. So at pick 112 I take NC State DT Alim McNeil (as we did in Scenario #2).
Round 4 (Pick #120): Robert Rochell, CB, Central Arkansas
And with our second 4th round pick I’ll snatch up Central Arkansas CB Robert Rochell again, as we did in Scenario #1. Rochell has the potential to either be a nickel cornerback or play on the outside if he develops. Not bad for a Day 3 pick.
Round 5 (Pick #153): Rashad Weaver, DE, Pitt
Last pick of the draft and at this juncture I’m looking at the board for who might be a good flier or could be someone who’s fallen and would be a great value. Pitt DE Rashad Weaver fits both those descriptions, so he’s the easy pick.
COMING LATER TODAY:
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