In our last scenario we didn't move off of any of Detroit's actual draft positions. This time in an effort to experiment with possible scenarios and to keep learning about other players, we're going to try to trade up in the first round and see how our draft plays out.
Per usual, an explanation for how I typically handle mock draft simulations for these posts:
- I try to think along the lines of Lions GM Brad Holmes and Head Coach Dan Campbell...but ultimately I'll be making a lot of picks with what I think just makes sense given the circumstances.
- Due to the nature of mock draft simulators being an algorithm and subject to randomness, we must keep in mind that some players may fall in these simulations and be available to me when they probably won't be available for Detroit in real life. Each site also has their own rankings for the players in the draft, so there will be some variance in that alone. This time I opted for Pro Football Focus' draft simulator to change things up and because they now allow you to change the slider on which draft board you want to go off of.
As I always mention, this is more of a thought exercise to see who the Lions might have available to them and who they might draft in reality. Three years I did three different exercises, three different scenarios, and at various points in those exercises I had Detroit draft Levi Onwuzurike, Alim McNeil, and Amon-Ra St. Brown, all of whom Detroit actually did draft that year. Last year I also had Hendon Hooker and Jahmyr Gibbs to the Lions at various points. So again, that's the kind of thing we're talking about here.
The draft results are right below this sentence if you just want to take a glance at the actual picks, and after the jump/below the picks is a full recap and breakdown of the simulation and my thinking behind each pick. Enjoy!
DETROIT LIONS MOCK DRAFT SCENARIO: Post-Free Agency Edition
Team Needs: Cornerback, Defensive Line, Interior Offensive Line, Wide Receiver, Safety, Offensive Tackle, Place Kicker, Tight End, Linebacker, Quarterback, Running Back
DRAFT RESULTS
.png)
MOCK DRAFT RECAP
As mentioned in the intro, for this particular exercise I want to try and make a trade up and see if I can land a player I feel is worth the trade up, and is someone Brad Holmes could conceivably make a move for.
Let's take a look at how the first round was playing out:
A pretty typical projection of the first round to this point, and the board has fallen almost exactly the way I might have hoped it would for the Lions here. I see a number of names available at pick 20 and this is where I decide to try and make our move, not wanting to wait any longer lest we miss out on someone.
To make our trade up I offer the Miami Dolphins our 1st-round pick this year (pick #29), our 5th-round pick this year (pick #164), and our 2025 3rd-round pick to make up for not giving up a Day 2 pick in this draft. In return we receive pick #20 and Miami's 4th-round pick this year (pick #119). The various different trade charts say different results as to who "wins" this particular trade, but the fact that it's split on who wins the trade tells me it's decently fair.
Looking at the draft board names that are standing out include Illinois DT Johnny Newton, Iowa CB Cooper DeJean, Washington OL Troy Fautanu, Duke OL Graham Barton, Alabama CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, and Texas DT Byron Murphy. There's certainly a chance that one or more of them could fall to Detroit's pick at 29, but there's someone I have my eye on and it's my bold prediction this draft season that Holmes will try to trade up and draft him.
That someone is Troy Fautanu, the stellar left tackle out of Washington. Fautanu was the anchor of the Huskies' offensive line, which was named the top offensive line in all of college football in 2023. He is athletic and flexible with potentially has shorter arms than you'd want out of a left tackle; yet Fautanu is versatile and I believe he could be Detroit's left guard of the future, or possibly their left tackle of the future if the Lions opt to move on from Taylor Decker when Decker's contract expires after this season.
More than anything it's Fautanu's versatility that makes me want to trade up and snag him. I struggle to see a scenario where he's available at 29. Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell both believe the offensive line is imperative to the team's success, especially when you consider how a cheap, cost-effective lineman will help offset the big contracts others on the o-line have or will have. Keep all of that in mind and I think it's worth the cost to move up.
Round 1 (Pick #20 - trade with Pittsburgh): Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington
We still have our own Round 2 pick despite the trade up in Round 1, so let's take a look at who's on the board for us at pick #62. Best available players according to PFF's board: Florida State WR Keon Coleman, Texas RB Jonathan Brooks, Western Michigan EDGE Marshawn Kneeland, Washington WR Ja'Lynn Polk, Washington State SAF Jaden Hicks, Texas A&M LB Edgerrin Cooper, UConn OG Christian Haynes, Washington WR Jalen McMillan, Michigan LB Junior Colson, Oregon CB Khyree Jackson, and Washington EDGE Bralen Trice.
Most of these are players are positions it's very conceivable Brad Holmes could target. Detroit still needs an X-receiver after Josh Reynolds left in free agency. Detroit could still use reinforcements on the defensive line (which is why we took Kneeland at this spot after also considering Trice here in our last exercise). Hicks and Jackson would address depth in the secondary. If it weren't for our previous selection of Fautanu, Haynes would be a logical pick here, too.
All that said, I feel this is a perfect spot of best player available also filling a need which is why Keon Coleman is the easy pick here. Plenty enough has been said about Coleman's disappointing 40-yard dash at the Combine, and plenty of analysts will point to his lack of separation and low contested catch rate as reasons for concern, but I'll counter with these points:
- In Coleman's lone season at Florida State in 2023, 33% of his targets were contested passes, and he had a contested catch rate of 33% in turn. In Coleman's last season at Michigan State in 2022, only 18% of his targets were contested, and his contested catch rate was 63%.
- Coleman had a relatively disappointing 4.61 40-yard dash at the Combine, but he still had a good 10-yard split (1.54 seconds), and more importantly he had a position-high GPS speed of 20.36 mph during the pass-catching gauntlet drill. It's well known that Holmes and his former employer Los Angeles Rams are more concerned with game speed than 40 times, which is how Amon-Ra St. Brown and Puka Nacua wound up on the teams they did.
Consider me a believer in Coleman. I think he'd be a nice addition to the offense and give Jared Goff that go-up-and-get-it receiver Detroit has really lacked since prime Marvin Jones.
Round 2 (Pick #61): Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State
12 picks later we're up again. A few names are still on the board in Brooks, Haynes, and Trice. There are some cornerbacks lower on the board such as Kentucky's Andru Phillips who I think would be interesting, but not at 73 I think.
Easy decision here is to snatch up Bralen Trice, the high-effort edge rusher from Washington. Trice graded out as the #21 edge rusher by PFF in 2022, and #18 in 2023. He has short arms and doesn't have ideal bend, but he has the same kind of strength, tenacity, and hands that Aidan Hutchinson has succeeded with his first two years in the pros. Trice won't need to be a Day One starter thanks to the depth Detroit has on the defensive line, but he could be a great addition to the rotation.
Round 3 (Pick #73): Bralen Trice, EDGE, Washington
In reality the Lions currently don't have a 4th-round pick, this is the additional pick we've received in our mock trade with the Dolphins. And here it's an easy choice as Notre Dame CB Cam Hart is one of the top players still on the board. We haven't addressed cornerback yet, and we'd be taking Hart at pick #119 instead of pick #93 like we did in our first simulation exercise this year. Here's the little write-up we did on Hart in that first exercise for reference:
Hart is a big corner with a big frame, backed up by good athleticism that he showed off at the Combine (9.82 RAS). He was a captain for the Fighting Irish which would likely be a plus for the Lions considering the importance they place on leadership and football intangibles. Hart did not speak with the Lions at the Combine, but reportedly did speak with them at the Senior Bowl. I can easily see Hart in Honolulu Blue and Silver. For us he's the pick.
Round 4 (Pick #119): Cam Hart, CB, Notre Dame
The Lions now have pick #201 in Round 6, so we're deep in the draft at this point and we're looking for guys who feel like they'd fit the Detroit Lions. The top name that jumps off the board to me is Nebraska safety Omar Brown. By no means a sexy name but Brown, who is listed as a safety in this draft, played 410 snaps at outside corner in 2021 and garnered an overall grade of 83.7 from PFF; and he played over 400 snaps at nickel in 2023 earning an overall PFF grade of 82.8, including a coverage grade of 84.5 and a run defense grade of 73.4. He's versatile, had 9 interceptions in his Cornhuskers career, and he feels like the kind of guy who could get that developmental look from Detroit.
Round 6 (Pick #201): Omar Brown, SAF, Nebraska
At pick #205 I'm taking a guy who has caught my eye during the pre-draft process in South Dakota State RB Isaiah Davis. Running back is far from a need for the Lions, but considering injuries are a natural part of position, is doesn't hurt to add depth and/or take a flier on a potentially impactful player. Davis was a 2-time FCS All-American with the Jackrabbits, rushing for 4,548 yards (at 6.7 yards per carry) and 50 TDs in his career. He has good size at 6'1", 220 lbs., had a 9.06 RAS at the Combine, and graded out as PFF's top FCS RB in 2023 with a 94.9 overall grade and a 96.8 rushing grade. Can't hurt to see what he can do!
Round 6 (Pick #205): Isaiah Davis, RB, South Dakota State
Another mock draft simulation, another place kicker. In the first two exercises we drafted Arkansas kicker Cam Little and Stanford's Joshua Karty. This time for variety we're going with Alabama kicker Will Reichard. Reichard kicked across five seasons for the Rolling Tide, the last four of which he was the established starter. In those four seasons he averaged 86% field goal accuracy, with his two best seasons being 2021 when he went 14-for-14 and in 2023 when he was 22-for-25 including a pristine 5-for-5 from 50+ yards. I personally would prefer either Little or Karty over Reichard, but again part of the reason we do these exercises is just to look at various players and learn about the draft class.
Round 7 (Pick #249): Will Reichard K, Alabama
As we approach the end of another NFL draft season and a conclusion to this series, I think this is another strong draft class our simulation ended up with, even after trading up. It's possible that any trade up Brad Holmes actually pulls off wouldn't include future picks and thus Detroit might have to live without a 2nd or a 3rd-round pick, but I don't see that as likely considering they're already missing a 4th-round pick this year.
I plan to do a least one more simulation before next week's draft, and we'll likely do a scenario where we trade down instead of trading up. That's a scenario that isn't as a fun to consider especially since the draft is in Detroit this year, but it's a very possible one.
If you've gotten down this far, thank you for reading!
No comments:
Post a Comment