The Lions have had a moderately active offseason and General Manager Brad Holmes has done a nice job of addressing the biggest needs the Lions had entering March. The secondary has been bolstered with the trade for Carlton Davis and the signing of Amik Robertson, the defensive line has added the talents of D.J. Reader and Marcus Davenport, and the offensive line has been solidified with the re-signing of Graham Glasgow and the signing of Kevin Zeitler. If you notice, those were positions one, two, and three on my Team Needs list.
There's still some work to be done and plenty of quality, veteran free agents are still available. The secondary in particular will need more attention following the release of Cameron Sutton following his arrest warrant for domestic violence.
But Holmes has done such a good job with signings and trades so far that he has positioned himself to draft best player available with every pick. (To be honest that's Holmes' M.O. anyway, but he really made sure he could do what he wants in April.)
Per usual, an explanation for how I typically handle mock draft simulations for these posts:
- I try to think along the lines of Lions GM Brad Holmes and Head Coach Dan Campbell...but ultimately I'll be making a lot of picks with what I think just makes sense given the circumstances.
- Due to the nature of mock draft simulators being an algorithm and subject to randomness, we must keep in mind that some players may fall in these simulations and be available to me when they probably won't be available for Detroit in real life. Each site also has their own rankings for the players in the draft, so there will be some variance in that alone. In this particular exercise I used Pro Football Network's simulator because that's what we used in the previous exercise and I wanted a little consistency between this one and the last one.
And as I always mention, this is more of a thought exercise to see who the Lions might have available to them and who they might draft in reality. Three years I did three different exercises, three different scenarios, and at various points in those exercises I had Detroit draft Levi Onwuzurike, Alim McNeil, and Amon-Ra St. Brown, all of whom Detroit actually did draft that year. Last year I also had Hendon Hooker and Jahmyr Gibbs to the Lions at various points. So again, that's the kind of thing we're talking about here.
The draft results are right below this sentence if you just want to take a glance at the actual picks, and after the jump/below the picks is a full recap and breakdown of the simulation and my thinking behind each pick. Enjoy!
DETROIT LIONS MOCK DRAFT SCENARIO: Post-Free Agency Edition
Team Needs: Cornerback, Defensive Line, Interior Offensive Line, Wide Receiver, Safety, Offensive Tackle, Place Kicker, Tight End, Linebacker, Quarterback, Running Back
DRAFT RESULTS
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MOCK DRAFT RECAP
As in our pre-free agency scenario, I decided not to make any trades and just remain and each Lions' pick to see how it played out.
Let's take a look at the 28 players who got drafted before our turn came:
Save for Jayden Daniels going #1 and Caleb Williams going #2 there's nothing that stands out as being unrealistic here. Let's look at the board for Detroit's first pick in our simulation. The top players on the board (according to PFN's rankings) are:
LSU WR Brian Thomas Jr., Texas DT Byron Murphy II, Duke OL Graham Barton, Texas WR Adonai Mitchell, Texas WR Xavier Worthy, BYU OT Kingsley Suamataia, Georgia WR Ladd McConkey, Texas DT T'Vondre Sweat, Iowa State CB T.J. Tampa, and West Virginia OL Zach Frazier.
That's a lot of wide receivers, which tracks considering this is a very deep receiver crop. In our last scenario we waited until Round 2 to take a receiver because of the depth in this class but there's a strong argument to make this time that a receiver could and should be the pick at 29. Aside from the secondary the biggest remaining need the Lions have is a WR2, particularly a big-bodied X-receiver. Josh Reynolds has ostensibly filled that role the past few seasons but he remains a free agent as of this writing, though Dan Campbell told reporters at the league meetings in Orlando this week that re-signing Reynolds is still a team priority. [UPDATE: Reynolds signed a 2-year, $14 million deal with the Denver Broncos less than 2 hours after this post was published.]
Another argument could be made for Holmes to target an offensive lineman considering the ages and short amount of time on the contracts for Glasgow, Zeitler, and even Taylor Decker. Throw in the lingering questions about Frank Ragnow's health and how long he'll want to continue playing and offensive line is a sneaky long-term need for the Lions. Barton, Frazier, and even Suamataia (Penei Sewell's cousin!) could be savvy choices here. However, offensive line is also a fairly deep position in this draft class and I think Detroit can afford to wait to select an interior lineman.
In our last scenario we selected Illinois DT Johnny Newton at pick 29 to pair him with Alim McNeill. Since we did that previous exercise the Lions have added D.J. Reader, but Reader will be 30 when the 2024 season begins and is only on a two-year contract, so Detroit could still use someone like Texas' Byron Murphy. In fact, if Murphy were somehow still available at 29 I could very well see him being Holmes' pick.
All things considered, I'm leaning wide receiver because it matches the one starting position that's truly still open with some of the best available players on the board. Brian Thomas is an electric receiver who lead the NCAA in touchdown receptions last season (17 TD). He ran a 4.34 40-yard-dash at the combine and had the 2nd-best Relative Athletic Score (RAS) at his position, an awesome 9.97 out of a possible 10. In reality I don't think he'll be available at 29, but he is in our scenario. Thomas also met with the Lions at the Combine so we know there is some real-life interest there.
Round 1 (Pick #29): Brian Thomas, Jr., WR, LSU
In our last scenario we opted to wait for the Lions' second pick of the draft to go wide receiver, nabbing South Carolina's Xavier Legette at pick 61. The way this simulation has gone it appears we could have done so again, but having selected Brian Thomas at pick 29 we can go a different direction this time.
Some of the best players on the PFN board are: Ohio State DT Michael Hall, Washington EDGE Bralen Trice, Michigan DT Kris Jenkins, the aforementioned Legette, Texas RB Jonathan Brooks, Georgia OC Sedrick Van Pran-Granger, Florida State DT Braden Fiske, and Western Michigan EDGE Marshawn Kneeland. The board is shaping up nicely here because defensive line is still an area the Lions could use some long-term additions at. The question really becomes which player to pick.
Hall, Jenkins, and Fiske would all be fine picks to play alongside Reader and McNeil. Trice and Kneeland could address the edge rushing Detroit sorely desires across from Aidan Hutchinson. There's arguments to be made for all of them.
I'm leaning more towards Trice or Kneeland because while Marcus Davenport certainly has the potential to be an impact player, health has been a career-long issue for him and it remains to be seen how he'll hold up as a Lion. Davenport is also likely just part of a defensive line rotation that still includes Josh Paschal, John Cominsky, and James Houston.
Trice has a motor like Hutchinson, the kind that would appeal to Dan Campbell, and he lead the FBS in pass-rush pressures but there's a slight concern that his high pressure rate at Washington didn't translate into as many sacks as you'd like.
Kneeland also has a high motor, and he has the versatility to play both inside and outside on the defensive line. Kneeland didn't play the same kind of competition at Western Michigan that Trice did in the PAC-12, but the Bronco has had an outstanding pre-draft process. He showed out at the Senior Bowl and he did it again at the Combine, scoring a very high 9.53 RAS as a defensive tackle (an 8.45 if scored as a defensive end).
I could see the Lions being happy with either player, and come April I would expect Kneeland to be off the board at this point of the draft, but he's here in our simulation. I'm leaning Kneeland because of his potential.
Round 2 (Pick #61): Marshawn Kneeland, DL, Western Michigan
12 selections later it's our turn to pick again with the 2024 Round 3 pick Detroit received from Minnesota in the T.J. Hockenson trade. Top players remaining on the PFN board are: Washington QB Michael Penix, Kansas State TE Ben Sinnott, NC State LB Payton Wilson, Texas RB Jonathan Brooks, Maryland S Beau Brade, Michigan WR Roman Wilson, Michigan LB Junior Colson, Boston College OL Christian Mahogany (whom we drafted in the last scenario), and a bevy of cornerbacks.
We can scratch off a lot of those players because Detroit has no need for a QB; little need for a TE, LB, or RB this early; and while I'd love to take Roman Wilson at some point we already drafted a WR in Round 1. Again I think Mahogany would be a solid pick here like he was in our previous exercise, but for the sake of not repeating ourselves we'll pass on the Boston College product for now.
Instead let's look at cornerback since it's a position Detroit was likely to draft in April regardless but CB is arguably the only actual need the Lions still have. Campbell told reporters this week that Detroit is definitely looking at adding another veteran (perhaps Stephon Gilmore or Xavien Howard?) but I would fully expect them to draft a CB for the long-term, too.
On PFN's board (in order) are Wake Forest's Caelen Carson, Auburn's D.J. James, Florida State's Renaldo Green, Michigan's Mikey Sainristil, TCU 's James Newton, Kentucky's Andru Phillips, Penn State's Kalen King, Oregon's Khyree Jackson, and Notre Dame's Cam Hart.
Personally I think Sainristil is the best remaining CB of this group and I'd be a little surprised if he's still available at this pick, though it's not impossible. I'm intrigued by certain guys like Phillips, Jackson, and Hart (whom we took at pick 92 in our last scenario) but I think this might be a little early for those guys. With his size I could see Jackson being a target for the Lions, but Sainristil absolutely screams a Dan Campbell type of player.
Sainristil's size might scare some teams but his production and mentality cannot be denied. He can play both the slot and on the outside, though he'd likely play more in the slot. And if you're saying "But the Lions already have Brian Branch in the slot!" I'd point to Campbell telling the media that Branch could see more time at safety this season. I'd imagine that would be so Branch could remain on the field even if the defense isn't aligned in nickel, but Sainristil could also play the slot while Branch plays safety. There are so many possibilities even if their skill-sets perhaps overlap.
Round 3 (Pick #73): Mike Sainristil, CB, Michigan
The Lions currently don't have a second Round 3 pick or any picks in Round 4, so unless something changes at some point it's a long wait between picks for Detroit. A lot of good players come off the board, including a guy I'd love to see wind up in Honolulu Blue and Silver in Michigan OG Zak Zinter who was just taken a few picks ahead of us by the Miami Dolphins.
Best players available at our current pick are: Clemson DT Tyler Davis, Arkansas OC Beaux Limmer, Georgia S Tykee Smith, Illinois DT Keith Randolph Jr., Alabama DT Justin Eboigbe, and Rice WR Luke McCaffrey.
The name that jumps off the board to me as the easy pick is Limmer. He's 6'5", 305 lbs., yet he's incredibly athletic (at the Combine as he scored a 9.83 RAS). Pro Football Focus has Limmer ranked as their 93rd-best player in this year's draft. That's just one outlet's ranking but it would be excellent value to get the 93rd-best player in the class at pick 164.
Long story short, Limmer is a nice combination of best player available that also addresses a long-term need at center. And hey - last time the Lions drafted a center from Arkansas it worked out pretty well!
Round 4 (Pick #164): Beaux Limmer, OC, Arkansas
The Lions now have pick #201 in Round 6, and with that I'm going to take the top player remaining on the PFN board in our simulation: Purdue RB Tyrone Tracy, Jr. The Lions don't have a pressing need at RB considering the presence of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, plus backups Craig Reynolds, Zonovan Knight, Jermar Jefferson, and Jake Funk.
But running backs get banged up, and aside from Gibbs none of those previously mentioned backs are here for the long-term. So as a 6th-round lottery ticket, Tracy and his potential (a 9.87 RAS which was 2nd-best at his position) are tough to pass up. Also consider the new kickoff rules, which at a minimum mean Tracy could be worth putting in at kick returner.
Round 6 (Pick #201): Tyrone Tracy, Jr., RB, Purdue
At pick 206 I'm going with another edge defender in Texas Tech EDGE Myles Cole. Truthfully I don't know a ton about him but he stood out at the Combine with a 9.92 RAS which was highest at his position, and his arms measured at 37". He likely wouldn't break camp with the team but I could see this being the kind of guy Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell could try to develop on the practice squad as another lottery ticket.
Round 6 (Pick #205): Myles Cole, EDGE, Texas Tech
Rounding out this draft class we'll take a look at another place kicker. Last time we drafted Arkansas' Cam Little, and this time we're going with Stanford's Joshua Karty. Karty only made 85.2% of his field goal attempts in 2023, but if we combine his last two seasons in college Karty made 41 out of 45 field goals (91.1%) including 17-for-17 from 40-49 yards and 7-for-10 from 50+ yards. He has a better leg than Michael Badgley and would be a perfectly fine draft pick to give Badgley some competition in camp.
Round 7 (Pick #249): Joshua Karty, K, Stanford
Another pretty solid simulated draft class if I say so myself. We got a a wide receiver who could add a vertical aspect to Ben Johnson's offense, a potential bookend for lessen the load on Aidan Hutchinson, a short but tenacious nickel cornerback, a possible heir apparent to Frank Ragnow, and some lottery tickets at important positions.
I plan to do another few of these simulations if I can over the next four weeks in the lead-up to the 2024 NFL Draft, and I'll likely change some things up by doing a scenario with a trade-up in the next exercise. In the meantime I hope you've enjoyed this long blog post. If you have made it this far, thanks for reading!
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