Annnnnnd we're back! Welcome back to another NFL Draft season here at Keck Thoughts. Getting started a little later than we did last year, but I wanted to get this first exercise done and posted before NFL free agency kicks off.
As usual, some explanation for how I typically handle mock draft simulations for these posts:
- I try to think along the lines of Lions GM Brad Holmes and Head Coach Dan Campbell...but ultimately I'll be making a lot of picks with what I think just makes sense given the circumstances.
- Due to the nature of mock draft simulators being an algorithm and subject to randomness, we must keep in mind that some players may fall in these simulations and be available to me when they probably won't be available for Detroit in real life. Each site also has their own rankings for the players in the draft, so there will be some variance in that alone. In this particular exercise I used Pro Football Network's simulator in large part because Pro Football Focus has seemingly gotten rid of the ability to switch between their simulator using their own rankings and their users' rankings, and currently a lot of PFF's rankings just don't jive with reality (i.e. LSU QB Jayden Daniels always seeming to be available at pick 29).
- I've compiled my personal priority list for what I think Detroit's needs are this offseason, but the more we see how Brad Holmes drafts the more we see he leans more towards who the best player on his board is, oftentimes with disregard for perceived team needs. So we won't be beholden to drafting for needs over best player available.
And as I always mention, this is more of a thought exercise to see who the Lions might have available to them and who they might draft in reality. Three years I did three different exercises, three different scenarios, and at various points in those exercises I had Detroit draft Levi Onwuzurike, Alim McNeil, and Amon-Ra St. Brown, all of whom Detroit actually did draft that year. Last year I also had Hendon Hooker and Jahmyr Gibbs to the Lions at various points. So again, that's the kind of thing I'm talking about here.
Without further ado, the draft results are right below this sentence if you just want to take a glance at the actual picks, and after the jump/below the picks is a full recap and breakdown of the simulation and my thinking behind each pick. Enjoy!
DETROIT LIONS MOCK DRAFT SCENARIO: Pre-Free Agency Edition
Team Needs: Cornerback, Defensive Line, Interior Offensive Line, Wide Receiver, Safety, Offensive Tackle, Place Kicker, Tight End, Linebacker, Quarterback, Running Back
DRAFT RESULTS
MOCK DRAFT RECAP
This year's exercises will look a bit different than years past because - as we all know - the Detroit Lions made it all the way to the NFC Championship Game this past season, and because of that the Lions' first draft pick is currently slated to be towards the end of the first round at pick 29.
In this particular exercise I decided not to make any trades and just remain and each Lions' pick to see how it played out. (Note: I did this simulation a day before the NFL announced all the compensatory draft picks which finalized each teams' actual draft picks, but only the last two picks in this simulation are slightly off from where the Lions are actually slated to pick.)
Let's take a look at the 28 players who got drafted before our turn came:
On the whole this looks pretty realistic to me! The only true outliers at first glance is J.J. McCarthy falling to Tampa at 26 (he's reportedly a lock to be a Top-12 pick in April) and Kool-Aid McKinstry seems unlikely to be a Round 1 pick as of right now largely because of a foot injury that kept him from participating in the Combine. Aside from those two things, I think we're looking at a fairly realistic board at Detroit's first pick.
The most notable available players on the board for our first pick include: Illinois DT Johnny Newton, Texas DT Bryon Murphy, Florida State WR Keon Coleman, Duke OG Graham Barton, Texas WR Xavier Worthy, BYU OT Kingsley Suamataia, UConn OG Christian Haynes, Missouri DE Darius Robinson, Georgia WR Ladd McConkey, Texas DT D'Vondre Sweat, Iowa State CB T.J. Tampa, West Virginia OC Zach Frazier, and Missouri CB Ennis Rakestraw.
Despite coming off their best season ever, the Detroit Lions have plenty of needs across the roster. Defensive line and cornerback probably stick out the most, but there's a sneaky need at offensive guard with Jonah Jackson likely leaving in free agency, the possibility Graham Glasgow could sign elsewhere, and the likely retirement of Hal Vaitai. Detroit could also use some more talent in the receiving corps, especially if Josh Reynolds isn't re-signed, and there's a potentially sneaky long-term need at center considering Frank Ragnow's history of injuries.
Looking at all those needs it's tempting to me to select Florida State's Keon Coleman because I believe he could be an absolute weapon as the big-bodied, go-up-and-get-it X-receiver the Lions have lacked for years now. As tempting as Coleman is, it's a very deep wide receiver class and Detroit might be able to address WR later.
Of bigger concern to me is addressing the offensive or defensive line. Johnny Newton and Darius Robinson in particular stand out because they both scream "Dan Campbell player." Robinson is (as has been noted many times elsewhere) a Detroit-area native and grew up a Lions fan, so drafting him to pair along with fellow Michigander Aidan Hutchinson would be a nice story. But Newton is arguably the best defensive line prospect not named Dallas Turner, and would make for a scary tandem up the middle with Alim McNeil.
There are a lot of quality offensive lineman sitting on the board at this point, and as attractive as Zach Frazier and Graham Barton are as prospects who could probably start from Day One, I think I can address this need later just like receiver.
Because of that, I'm going with the best player on the board who also happens to fill a need, and that's Newton.
Round 1 (Pick #29): Johnny Newton, DT, Illinois
28 players fly off the board between Detroit's picks, including a number of those offensive lineman I thought I might be able to get later, but there's a few quality ones still on the board so I'm content to stay patient.
Some good defenders also come off the board, as do some wide receivers, but as I expected there are still some good options available at pick 61. Not wanting to risk losing one of the guys I think would most interest the Lions, I jump on South Carolina WR Xavier Legette.
Simply put, Legette is a freak. A 6'1" athlete who ran a 4.39 40-yard dash at the Combine, including a 40" vertical, which helped Legette score a 9.92 Relative Athletic Score (RAS) which was 3rd-best out of all receivers at this year's combine and 24th-best out of 3,063 receivers scored since 1987.
Legette would be one of those additional weapons to complement Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs. Even better, the South Carolina product fits that X-receiver position where he excels at going up and snagging contested balls. He's the perfect pick here in my opinion.
Round 2 (Pick #61): Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina
Next is the 3rd-round pick Detroit received from the Minnesota Vikings as part of the T.J. Hockenson trade. Lots of talented players still on the board including defensive lineman Texas' D'Vondre Sweat and Michigan's Kris Jenkins, more talented receivers in Michigan's Roman Wilson, Washington's Jalen McMillan, and North Carolina's Devontez Walker (whom had an official meeting with the Lions at the Combine). In hindsight it appears I may have been able to wait on Legette, but in true Brad Holmes fashion, I wanted to take the guy I thought was best.
I'm tempted to take Sweat or Jenkins here because of the value they present, but we already addressed defensive tackle with Johnny Newton in the first round. Holmes hasn't been shy about double-dipping at positions in the draft in the past, but considering the presence of Levi Onwuzurike and Brodric Martin (a 3rd-round pick just last year), it feels like a bit of a waste of resources.
I decide it's time to address offensive line and we draft Boston College guard Christian Mahogany. Not only did Mahogany go off at the Combine with a 9.59 RAS, but in his last season at Boston College he didn't allow a single sack nor a single QB hit in 422 pass block snaps. He's shown proficiency as a pull-blocker, which is something he'll likely be asked to do quite often in Ben Johnson's offense. Even if Mahogany doesn't start from Day One, he could potentially be a long-term answer at one of the guard positions in Detroit.
Round 3 (Pick #73): Christian Mahogany, OG, Boston College
Detroit currently has two 3rd-round picks, so we're back on the board at pick 92. T'Vondre Sweat is still on the board and there are some intriguing names such as Michigan cornerback Mikey Sainristil (whom I adore), TCU CB Josh Newton, Notre Dame OT Blake Fisher, TCU OG Brandon Coleman, and a familiar name in Utah DE Jonah Ellis (son of Lions' great Luther Elliss).
I do feel this is the spot to address cornerback since Detroit currently doesn't have another selection for 71 more picks, and as much as a I love Sainristil I do somewhat buy into the argument that there's not really a place to play him in Detroit because he's more likely to be a nickel corner in the NFL and that's where Brian Branch currently resides on the roster. I do think Sainristil could play on the outside, which he did do at Michigan from time to time, but it might be more prudent to take a true outside corner.
With that in mind I zero in on Notre Dame CB Cam Hart. Hart is a big corner with a big frame, backed up by good athleticism that he showed off at the Combine (9.82 RAS). He was a captain for the Fighting Irish which would likely be a plus for the Lions considering the importance they place on leadership and football intangibles. Hart did not speak with the Lions at the Combine, but reportedly did speak with them at the Senior Bowl. I can easily see Hart in Honolulu Blue and Silver. For us he's the pick.
Round 3 (Pick #92): Cam Hart, CB, Notre Dame
We're into Day 3 picks now, which Holmes has shown is somewhat of a strength for him. As for me, I'm not AS familiar with a lot of the names down in this region just yet, but that's what these exercises are for.
No names are jumping out at me on PFN's board save for some former Big Ten players like Iowa TE Erick All, Ohio State LB Tommy Eichenberg, and Michigan OL LaDarius Henderson. Those aren't the guys who are catching my eye, though.
No, that would be another former Big Ten player: Illinois TE Tip Reiman. I had a vague memory of him from watching Michigan play Illinois the last few years, but it was Reiman's eye-opening performance at the Combine that firmly planted him on the map (as did his strange admission that he doesn't believe birds are real, but that's for another time).
Reiman finished with the 2nd-best RAS out of his position group at the Combine, scoring an outstanding 9.92 RAS behind a 4.64 40-yard dash and elite scores in the shuttle drill and the 3-cone drill. Reiman only caught 19 passes last season, three of which were for touchdowns, but he did average 10.7 yard per reception. At this point in the draft it's definitely a flier to take Reiman, but it's one worth taking.
Round 5 (Pick #163): Tip Reiman, TE, Illinois
Last two picks we'll go in rapid fire. Most names on the board are players I'm not familiar with, but there are a few who jump out include Washington LB Edefuan Ulofoshio. The Huskies product was a 2nd-team All-American, 1st-team All-Pac-12, and a finalist for the Butkus Award which is handed out to the best linebacker in the country. Similarly to Cam Hart, Ulofoshio was a team captain, and he rocked the Combine with a 9.55 RAS which was 3rd-best for all linebackers this year. He could be a very good long-term NFL player.
Round 6 (Pick #207): Edefuan Ulofoshio, LB, Washington
Last but not least, despite the general consensus not to use a draft pick on a kicker I'm going to do exactly that and stake my claim with Arkansas kicker Cam Little. In his three years as the kicker for the Razorbacks, Little was a career 82.8% on field goals (20-for-24 in 2023) including 12/17 (70.5%) from between 40-49 yards and 7/11 (63.6%) from 50+. Needless to say, Little has a leg on him and can make kicks from long distance, something Lions kickers have struggled with since Matt Prater left. Little was also 100% for his career on extra points, which doesn't hurt.
Round 7 (Pick #247): Cam Little, PK, Arkansas
All in all I think this is a pretty solid simulated draft class. We got a stud defensive tackle who should be an impact player on Day One, an athletic wide receiver who should also be able to contribute regularly during his regular season, and some depth/long-term pieces at offensive line, corner, tight end, and linebacker. Topped off with one of the best collegiate kickers to give Michael Badgley some competition, this is a solid if not sexy draft.
The Detroit Lions were 30 minutes away from a Super Bowl appearance, and they're largely bringing back the same roster. Almost every starting spot is spoken for, so this year the Lions won't be looking to draft starters, they'll be looking to do what we just did. Find a balance between immediate contributors, depth pieces, and see if you land any long-term gems.
I plan to be another few of these simulations if I can over the next six weeks in the lead-up to the 2024 NFL Draft. If I'm able to, I'll change up some of the scenarios like trading up or trading down. In the meantime I hope you've enjoyed this long blog post. If you have it this far, thanks for reading!
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