Per usual, an explanation for how I typically handle mock draft simulations for these posts:
- I try to think along the lines of Lions GM Brad Holmes and Head Coach Dan Campbell...but ultimately I'll be making a lot of picks with what I think just makes sense given the circumstances.
- Due to the nature of mock draft simulators being an algorithm and subject to randomness, we must keep in mind that some players may fall in these simulations and be available to me when they probably won't be available for Detroit in real life. Each site also has their own rankings for the players in the draft, so there will be some variance in that alone. This time I opted for Pro Football Network's because I prefer how their draft simulator actually calls you with trade offers, whereas Pro Football Focus' does not.
As I always mention, this is more of a thought exercise to see who the Lions might have available to them and who they might draft in reality. Three years I did three different exercises, three different scenarios, and at various points in those exercises I had Detroit draft Levi Onwuzurike, Alim McNeil, and Amon-Ra St. Brown, all of whom Detroit actually did draft that year. Last year I also had Hendon Hooker and Jahmyr Gibbs to the Lions at various points. So again, that's the kind of thing we're talking about here.
The draft results are right below this sentence if you just want to take a glance at the actual picks, and after the jump/below the picks is a full recap and breakdown of the simulation and my thinking behind each pick. Enjoy!
DETROIT LIONS MOCK DRAFT SCENARIO: Post-Free Agency Edition
.png)
MOCK DRAFT RECAP
As mentioned in the intro, for this particular exercise I want to try and make a trade up and see if I can land a player I feel is worth the trade up, and is someone Brad Holmes could conceivably make a move for.
.png)
In this scenario Michael Penix Jr. got drafted by the Minnesota Vikings at #23, which seems to have helped Cooper DeJean make it all the way to our spot at #29. In a normal circumstance I might just take DeJean and call it a day, but in this scenario we're looking to trade down and this situation would be a PRIME opportunity for Holmes to trade down. I would fully understand if Detroit wants to trade down because there is a grouping of players typically found between the 30-60 range on draft rankings who are on a certain tier of potential Day One starters, or could be depth pieces their rookie year and then step in as starters as soon as next season.
Thankfully for our scenario the Houston Texans called with an offer I can conceivably see Holmes accepting. Houston doesn't have a pick in Round 1 this year thanks to trading their own 2024 1st-rounder in last year's draft to move up to the third overall pick, and then this offseason trading pick #23 to the Minnesota Vikings (which was a pick they received from Cleveland in the Deshaun Watson trade). So it could make sense that they'd want to trade up into the first round and they have the ammunition to do so.
%20Before%20Pick%2042.png)
We can take a quick look at the players who were selected before our pick at 42 in the photo on the right...
Trading back means we missed out on some appealing options, but we're also able to pick a player who's sitting at the top of our mock draft's board and who may very well have been an realistic option at pick 29 in West Virginia C Zach Frazier.
Frazier has been mocked to the Lions by a number of outlets recently for for good reason: he fits the Lions' GRIT ethos like a glove. A four-time high school state wrestling champion, Frazier is strong and flexible which helps him overcome his somewhat short arms. In his final game at West Virginia he fractured his leg on the first play of his team's final drive. Frazier crawled/hopped off the field so his team wouldn't suffer a 10-second run-off on the clock for a player down on the field, and the Mountaineers would end up scoring the go-ahead points on that drive. Then less than four months later he was running the drills at the Combine.
He ranks #33 overall on PFF's Big Board and The Athletic's Dane Brugler recently released his annual draft preview (nicknamed "The Beast") and Brugler has Frazier ranked #34 overall. In our scenario we get a guy who could back up either guard position or Frank Ragnow this year, and a future starting guard or Frank Ragnow's long-term replacement.
Round 2 (Pick #42 - trade w/ HOU): Zach Frazier, C, West Virginia
Towards the end of Round 2 we can see that trading back may not necessarily be the best option for the Lions if they have any particular wide receivers in mind. Washington's Ja'Lynn Polk went to Philadelphia at #50, while South Carolina's Xavier Legette and Florida State's Keon Coleman get drafted at #56 and #58 right before we're slated to have two of the next three selections. There are plenty of other WRs on the board , but those were two appealing X-receivers that went elsewhere, including one to divisional rival Green Bay right before our pick. (Worth mentioning that Legette is reported now to have made a Top 30 visit to Detroit, but it's starting to feel like the Lions may need to take him at pick 29 if they truly want him.)
%20Before%20Pick%2059.png)
As it is, the best players on the PFN board are: Alabama EDGE Chris Braswell, Washington EDGE Bralen Trice, Kansas State TE Ben Sinnott, Michigan DT Kris Jenkins, Western Kentucky WR Malachi Corley, Florida State DT Braden Fiske, Maryland S Beau Brade, Michigan WR Roman Wilson, Wake Forest CB Caelen Carson, Florida WR Ricky Pearsall, Western Michigan Marshawn Kneeland, and Boston College OG Christian Mahogany.
Braswell and Trice are interesting options because they would add to Detroit's defensive line depth and be potential pass rush weapons. Jenkins is a stout, athletic defensive tackle who would be an intriguing option to play behind D.J. Reader and Alim McNeill. Braden Fiske is another DT option, an athletic interior defensive lineman who has had an excellent pre-draft process.
A cornerback would make sense with one of these upcoming picks we have and there are still some good options available. Caelen Carson and Kentucky CB Andru Phillips are both still on the board. Phillips is ranked 111th by PFN, and Brugler has Phillips ranked as his #61 player and 9th-best CB.
We're flush with options and have three of the next fifteen selections, including two of the next three. So at 59 I'm going with Kris Jenkins to add to the long-term defensive tackle rotation and then we'll see what plays out.
Round 2 (Pick #59 - trade w/ HOU): Kris Jenkins, DT, Michigan
After we take Jenkins the Tampa Bay Buccaneers take Trice. Totally fine for us. I'm tempted to take Chris Braswell at this juncture as a pass rush weapon. He's an Alabama product and Holmes has shown a predilection for drafting Crimson Tide players. But...does Braswell fit the SAM position Detroit has been searching for? Is he redundant with James Houston already on the roster? Or should Houston's presence even matter? All pertinent questions to ponder.
I'm tempted to go wide receiver because after our next pick in this scenario it's a looooong wait until the next pick. Cornerback is another position that I believe Detroit absolutely wants to address in this draft. I truly don't envy Holmes and his front office because they have to make these decisions much, much faster than I do when writing up this post.
Instead of CB I'm going to draft a weapon for Jared Goff in Florida WR Ricky Pearsall. He's only about six feet tall but he played both outside and inside for the Gators and could do the same for Detroit, especially with how the Lions like to move their receivers around the field. Pearsall is very athletic (9.91 RAS), has great hands, and his specialty is getting open. Sounds a lot like Amon-Ra St. Brown, and there would be absolutely nothing wrong with the Lions having two Amon-Ra St. Browns on the roster. I don't think Pearsall makes it to our next pick at 71, so I'm grabbing him now.
The real question for me is whether to go with Pearsall or Roman Wilson, and really I don't think Detroit could go wrong with either player. But Wilson doesn't feel like he can play on the outside as effectively as Pearsall can, which gives the Florida product the edge. (It might be worth mentioning that of the two players, Wilson is the one who's been confirmed to have met with the Lions when he made a Top 30 visit AND was at the Lions' local pro day. There hasn't been any report that Detroit has spoken with Pearsall in such a fashion.)
Round 2 (Pick #61): Ricky Pearsall, WR, Florida
At 73 I'll finally go cornerback. On PFN's board Mikey Sainristil is still available and if that were to happen in real life I think Holmes upsets the NFL again but rushing in his pick. Instead (in part because I don't think Mikey will truly be available here) I'm going to go with the aforementioned Andru Phillips from Kentucky.
Phillips isn't quite as tall as you'd want from your prototypical corner, but he's physical, tenacious, and has the kind of mindset you'd think Holmes and Dan Campbell would love. Detroit hosted Phillips on a Top 30 visit, so they seem to have interest in him. He's also rated as Brugler's #61 overall prospect and PFF's #64 overall player. Thus he would appear to be a good value at 73.
Round 3 (Pick #73): Andru Phillips, CB, Kentucky
Thanks to trading away pick #107, we have a long wait after 73 but then have two selections to make within four picks. PFN's board currently shows the best remaining players to be Illinois TE Tip Reiman, Colorado State TE Dallin Hooker, Tulane CB Jarius Monroe, NC State OT Dylan McMahon, Utah OG Sataoa Laumea, Washington LB Edefuan Ulofoshio, Michigan TE AJ Barner, and Utah S Sione Vaki.
Vaki is a name that's been connected to the Lions by a number of Detroit's local media and for good reason. Vaki spoke with the Lions at the Combine and made a Top 30 visit to Allen Park. That's a decent amount of time put into getting to know a player who's projected as a Day 3 pick (a 4th rounder by PFF, a 6th rounder by Brugler), but Vaki is a versatile player who would be an intriguing addition. He played safety and running back last season for the Utes. He's physical and seemingly fits the culture the Lions have built. Seems like a natural pick at this juncture to me.
Round 6 (Pick #201): Sione Vaki, S, Utah
Four picks later we're back up and the board looks largely the same. For the sake of expediency we're going with Tip Reiman again just like we did in our first exercise. We're selecting him about 40 picks later here than we did the first time, but here's the write-up from that first post which explains why Reiman could be worth the pick.
Reiman finished with the 2nd-best RAS out of his position group at the Combine, scoring an outstanding 9.92 RAS behind a 4.64 40-yard dash and elite scores in the shuttle drill and the 3-cone drill. Reiman only caught 19 passes last season, three of which were for touchdowns, but he did average 10.7 yard per reception. At this point in the draft it's definitely a flier to take Reiman, but it's one worth taking.
Round 6 (Pick #205): Tip Reiman, TE, Illinois
Last pick in this edition of our draft simulation exercise and I've run out of place kickers I think are worthy of Detroit drafting. Does Detroit need to draft a QB? Not particularly with Goff likely to get a long-term extension sometime this summer, Hendon Hooker being drafted in Round 3 last year, and Nate Sudfeld re-signed to be QB3 and help Goff out in the film room.
I'm simply looking at South Alabama's Carter Bradley here as a potential practice squad QB to develop. Bradley wasn't invited to the Combine but he did get invited to the Senior Bowl where he had a solid week. Brugler says Bradley is the best non-Combine QB he scouted in this draft thanks to his traits that translate to the pro game. For being one of the last selections in the draft could be a lottery ticket worth buying. I wouldn't be surprised if Bradley were an undrafted free agent either.
Round 7 (Pick #249): Carter Bradley, QB, South Alabama
And with that we have concluded this year's Mocking the Detroit Lions' 2024 NFL Draft series! We've looked at a lot of different names and we've taken a look at what it could look like for Detroit to trade up or down. I don't think anyone truly has any idea what Brad Holmes will do in the first round this year, but if I were a betting man I would wager Detroit does not end up making their selection at pick 29. Whether that's because of a trade up or because of a trade down will remain to be seen.
In any case, I think we're in for a fascinating 2024 NFL Draft for the Detroit Lions because we're in new territory here. Drafting later in most rounds than we're used to, and being one of the final four teams standing last season Detroit doesn't have many pressing needs to fill, allowing Holmes to truly follow his and his staff's draft board. Should be a fun one on Thursday!
If you've made it this far, I want to express my gratitude again for your reading these lengthy blog posts. I do them primarily because I get the itch to write and just discuss a topic that I'm passionate about as a fan, but I hope anyone who does read these learns a little something whether they agree or disagree with the results. I do plan on doing a Round 1 Mock Draft that I'll post on Draft Day, so keep an eye out for that. And once again, thank you for reading!
No comments:
Post a Comment