Welcome back to the "Mocking the Detroit Lions 2023 Draft" series here on Keck Thoughts. With this year's draft less than a day away this will be our final scenario exercise. Last week in our fictional role as Detroit Lions GM we traded down from 6th overall to 11th while picking up some additional draft capital. Today we do the opposite and try a scenario where we see what Detroit could do if they were to trade up from the 6th overall pick to somewhere in the Top 5 picks of the first round.
As is standard now, below is the explanation for how I handle mock draft simulations in this series:
- I try to think along the lines of Lions GM Brad Holmes and Head Coach Dan Campbell...but ultimately I'll be making a lot of picks with what I think just makes sense given the circumstances.
- Due to the nature of mock draft simulators being an algorithm and subject to randomness, let's keep in mind that some players may fall in these simulations and be available to me when they probably won't be available for Detroit in real life. Each site also has their own rankings for the players in the draft, so there will be some variance in that alone. So if a guy like Darnell Washington somehow falls to me in the 3rd round, I won't be passing on him just because I think it's unrealistic for him to fall that far.
- Last week we utilized Pro Football Network's Mock Draft Simulator. I've decided for our third and final exercise to utilize a third different simulator and go with Pro Football Focus's mock draft simulator just for more variance, and since I've been referencing PFF's rankings in this series it will be more efficient for me to just use their system.
In the past I've tried compiling a Draft Needs list to help us along the way, but after two years of Brad Holmes drafting for the Lions, we've learned that Holmes tends to draft on a best-player basis. Alternatively he often times targets a guy he wants and he goes and gets him, such as trading up for Jameson Williams last year. Holmes has even said they won't have a depth chart in the draft room with them, saying, "I just think you can make a lot of mistakes with that. I've been in regimes in the past that have had a depth chart in the draft room, and I've just never been a fan of that." So I will not be beholden to drafting for need if there is a clear best player available sitting in front of me during these exercises.
Same caveat as always: this exercise is for fun. I'm not worried about my accuracy being judged too harshly.
This is more of a thought exercise to see who the Lions might have available to them and who they might draft in reality. In 2021 I did three different exercises, three different scenarios, and at various points in those exercises I had Detroit draft Amon-Ra St. Brown, Alim McNeil, and Levi Onwuzurike, all of whom Detroit actually did draft that April. That's the kind of thing I'm talking about here.If you just want to see the snapshot of the mock simulation, the results are listed below. After that (and after the jump) I've written out a more detailed summary of how the simulation unfolded and my thinking behind each pick. Enjoy!
DRAFT RESULTS:
MOCK DRAFT RECAP
The draft kicks off with quarterbacks going 1-2 but with an interesting wrinkle: PFF's simulator had Houston draft Kentucky QB Will Levis instead of Ohio State's C.J. Stroud. The betting odds for Levis to go with the second pick have actually swung wildly towards that happening the past couple days, potentially off of nothing more than a Reddit post. So we'll see about that.
Following those top two picks the Arizona Cardinals sit at the third pick, and by all accounts Arizona is quite interested (bordering on desperate?) to trade down from 3. So this is where we make our pitch to Arizona. For this trade we're going to look at the Rich Hill trade value chart, which is a more modern valuation than the famous Jimmy Johnson trade chart.
On the Rich Hill chart, Arizona's #3 pick is worth 514 points, and Detroit's #6 is worth 446, so we have a balance of 58 points to make up. The easiest thing to do is offer Detroit's third-round pick at #81 which is worth 55 points, but that leaves us just shy, and according to PFF an offer of #6 and #81 would only have a 20% chance of being accepted. So to better guarantee that Arizona accepts our offer we increase the offer to #6 and #48 which combines for a value of 567 points, and voila, the Cardinals accept and Detroit is now on the clock with the 3rd overall pick.
Considering only Bryce Young and Will Levis have gone off the board I think this is actually a decently realistic trade. I have a gut feeling there's a player Brad Holmes has his eye on and it's a player I don't expect will fall to pick 6: Alabama EDGE Will Anderson, Jr. Honestly if you're reading this you don't need me to tell you about Anderson, so instead let me tell you why I think Holmes could trade up for him.
If there's one thing we know about Holmes and how he wants to build his team, it's through the trenches. In his first draft as Lions GM he drafted Levi Onwuzurike and Alim McNeil. Last year he drafted Aidan Hutchinson, Josh Paschal, and James Houston. Detroit still has Romeo Okwara, Julian Okwara, Charles Harris, and John Cominsky as edge defenders, too, but if Holmes can upgrade at the position I think he's going to try.
We also know that Holmes isn't opposed to trading up to go get a guy he wants. In 2021 he tried trading up for Ja'Marr Chase, and just last year he traded all the way up from pick 32 to pick 12 to draft Jameson Williams. Call me crazy, but I think there's a strong chance Holmes moves up to secure a guy he wants. In this exercise, it's Will Anderson Jr.
Round 1 (Pick #3 - Trade with ARI): Will Anderson, Jr., Edge, Alabama
14 players go off the board between our first-round picks, most of them the usual suspects. Biggest surprise is Oregon CB Christian Gonzalez still being on the board, as Illinois's Devon Witherspoon, Penn State's Joey Porter, Jr., and Maryland's Deonte Banks all go before him, with Porter and Banks going directly before our pick.
As I say in the intro, just because someone we don't think will be available at a spot in reality doesn't mean I won't take them in the exercise. Here that means Gonzalez. The Duck cornerback is typically regarded as either CB1 or CB2 in this draft so he'd be quite the steal at 18.
I'm also selecting him here because the purpose of these exercises is to spotlight players who might actually be drafted by Detroit, and Gonzalez absolutely fits the bill. Heck, there's a really good chance he's who they'll take at 6. Gonzalez has the size, the athleticism, and the production to make him a good pick. He's not as much of a physical player as Witherspoon, but he has athleticism for days which should allow him to succeed in Aaron Glenn's defense. He's an easy pick here.
The other top player left on the board was Texas RB Bijan Robinson whom we took in scenario #1. Had Gonzalez not also been on the board I would've drafted Robinson again. Another option I would have considered had Gonzalez not been on the board would've been to seek a trade down, which Detroit reportedly has already been making phone calls about doing if the right situation presents itself.
Round 1 (Pick #18): Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
Because of our trade up for Anderson we have to wait until pick 55 as opposed to pick 48. This is the trade-off of making that move up: we lose the ability grab more than solid player in the second round, provided we don't package more picks to trade up again.
Best on PFF's board at this point are: Iowa TE Sam LaPorta, Houston WR Nathaniel Dell, Michigan CB DJ Turner, UCLA RB Zach Charbonnet, Texas A&M S Antonio Johnson, LSU DE BJ Ojulari, Wisconsin DT Keeanu Benton, and Washington State LB Daiyan Henley. Most of those players are rated below where our pick is in Dane Brugler's "The Beast" with only Ojulari and Turner being rated higher than 55. We've already selected players at both those positions which isn't a deal-breaker for me, but with fewer draft picks thanks to the trade up I'd rather address a different position.
So my focus gravitates to Benton, who's rated 56th by Brugler and 58th by PFF, and whom we drafted at 81 in our last exercise; and to Syracuse offensive lineman Matthew Bergeron, who's rated 54th by Brugler and 65th by PFF. I think Bergeron is a legitimate option for the Lions because he's an offensive tackle who could bounce inside to play guard if needed, which means he could potentially start for the Lions from Day 1. But I'm opting for Benton again because he fits a bigger need in helping fortify the Lions' run defense.
Round 2 (Pick #55): Keeanu Benton, DT, Wisconsin
At this juncture we're facing a glut of wide receivers on the board mixed in with some other players of note we should consider. At WR there's SMU's Rashee Rice, Oklahoma's Marvin Mims, Stanford's Michael Wilson, Wake Forest's A.T. Perry, and Michigan State's Jayden Reed (whom we drafted in our first exercise). In addition to those gents is South Carolina CB Darius Rush, TCU CB Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson, North Carolina State OG Chandler Zavala, and Tulane RB Tyjae Spears (whom we drafted in the last exercise).
Rush is the best player available on both PFF and Brugler's lists, but for the same reason as earlier I'm more hesitant to double-dip at CB because we have fewer draft picks. I do think Detroit should and will draft a WR this week (regardless of Jameson Williams' suspension) but I think seeing all those receivers still available tells me we can wait.
So now I'm deciding between Tyjae Spears and Chandler Zavala. Spears makes all the sense in the world here because he could be a long-term contributor and be the replacement for D'Andre Swift once Swift is a free agent. He'd be the home run threat to pair with David Montgomery. Chandler Zavala, on the other hand, would be another potential immediate starter or contributor on the offensive line and could be a long-term piece because of Jonah Jackson, Halipoulivaati Vaitai, and Graham Glasgow one-year contracts.
So who to pick? Spears is rated slightly higher by Brugler, while Zavala is rated slightly higher by PFF. Between the two I'm giving Zavala a tiebreaker in that he was one of the 30 players the Lions brought to Allen Park for a Top 30 visit. They're clearly interested in him, and he gives us a new name to select in these exercises.
Round 3 (Pick #81): Chandler Zavala, OG, North Carolina State
I took a swing by packaging together our two fifth-round picks and trading up into the fourth round, but thanks to the draft simulator it kind of bit us in the behind. I first attempted to trade up to 107 with the Patriots in hopes of drafting Stanford WR Michael Wilson, Michigan TE Luke Schoonmaker, or Tyjae Spears. The draft simulator rejected the offer of picks 155 and 159 for 107, so I went with a backup option of trading for New England's pick 117 in the hopes one of those players would still be available.
Alas, Spears went at 111, Schoonmaker went at 112, and Wilson went at 115, just two picks before ours. So I'm stuck in a bit of a pickle looking at some options I hadn't had my eye on previously, most specifically Pitt RB Israel Abanikanda. He's a home run threat similar to Spears and while Brugler doesn't have him in his Top 100 he does rank him as a 3rd-4th round prospect which tells me I'm right in the proper zone. As both an immediate and long-term option and his potential as a big-play RB, I'll go with Abanikanda after trading up.
Round 4 (Pick #117 - Trade with NE): Israel Abanikanda, RB, Pitt
Looooong wait between picks 117 and 183 because of our trade up into the fourth round. Best player available on the board is, naturally, a running back in East Carolina's Keaton Mitchell. Mitchell could actually be an option for the Lions in part because he was a Top 30 visit for the Lions and being an ECU Pirate he has a minor connection with Lions running back coach Scottie Montgomery, who was ECU's head coach until 2018.
As for the other best players available they include Louisville DE/LB Yasir Abdullah, Coastal Carolina DL Jerrod Clark, Purdeu TE Payne Durham, Fresno State QB Jake Haener, and Houston QB Clayton Tune., TCU DL Dylan Horton, and Indiana LB Cam Jones (whom we drafted in our last exercise). Of this group of players I'm going with Haener as he's the highest-rated player left on the board and could be a genuine option as a developmental QB for the Lions.
Round 6 (Pick #183): Jake Haener, QB, Fresno State
Last but not least with our final pick, I'm going with TCU defensive lineman Dylan Horton. He's a name I've been seeing pop up as a potential Day 3 option for Detroit, someone who could be another strong addition to Detroit's pass rush. Some Lions fans may remember Horton from TCU's College Football Playoff semifinal win over the Wolverines when he notched 4 sacks against the Wolverines. Cam Jones, Eastern Michigan EDGE Jose Ramirez, and Central Michigan EDGE Thomas Incoom were also all potential candidates I had my eye on.
Round 6 (Pick #194): Dylan Horton, DL, TCU
And there we are, my friends. At long last we have reached the conclusion to this year's Mocking the Detroit Lions 2023 Draft series. This last scenario where we traded up to 3 and took Will Anderson Jr. ended up with some interesting results. I'm not unhappy with the full results considering we landed arguably the best player in the draft, potentially the best CB in the draft, one of the more popular DT targets for the Lions, and a couple other potential Day 1 contributors in Zavala and Abanikanda. My only real regret is that the trade up from the fifth round to the fourth round didn't get the desired result, which was to grab a WR or a TE. I do believe Detroit will actually walk away with a player at one or both of those positions this week, but depending on how the board falls and what Holmes does or doesn't do with trades, it totally possible the Lions don't draft a WR or TE. We'll just have to wait and see!
I hope you enjoyed reading this post and this series as much as I enjoyed writing it. Remember that I'll also be posting my own official mock draft sometime before the first night of the draft kicks off so be on the lookout for that! Thank you again for reading!
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