As is standard now, below is the explanation for how I handle mock draft simulations in this series:
- I try to think along the lines of Lions GM Brad Holmes and Head Coach Dan Campbell...but ultimately I'll be making a lot of picks with what I think just makes sense given the circumstances.
- Due to the nature of mock draft simulators being an algorithm and subject to randomness, let's keep in mind that some players may fall in these simulations and be available to me when they probably won't be available for Detroit in real life. Each site also has their own rankings for the players in the draft, so there will be some variance in that alone. So if a guy like Darnell Washington somehow falls to me in the 3rd round, I won't be passing on him just because I think it's unrealistic for him to fall that far.
- As I mentioned in the previous entry, we used The Draft Network's Mock Draft Machine for our first scenario but it was too buggy for my liking and crashed when I tried to save the results, so going forward we'll be utilizing Pro Football Network's Mock Draft Simulator.
In the past I've tried compiling a Draft Needs list to help us along the way, but after two years of Brad Holmes drafting for the Lions, we've learned that Holmes tends to draft on a best-player basis. Alternatively he often times targets a guy he wants and he goes and gets him, such as trading up for Jameson Williams last year. Holmes has even said they won't have a depth chart in the draft room with them, saying, "I just think you can make a lot of mistakes with that. I've been in regimes in the past that have had a depth chart in the draft room, and I've just never been a fan of that." So I will not be beholden to drafting for need if there is a clear best player available sitting in front of me during these exercises.
Same caveat as always: this exercise is for fun. I'm not worried about my accuracy being judged too harshly.
This is more of a thought exercise to see who the Lions might have available to them and who they might draft in reality. In 2021 I did three different exercises, three different scenarios, and at various points in those exercises I had Detroit draft Amon-Ra St. Brown, Alim McNeil, and Levi Onwuzurike, all of whom Detroit actually did draft that April. That's the kind of thing I'm talking about here.If you just want to see the snapshot of the mock simulation, the results are listed below. After that (and after the jump) I've written out a more detailed summary of how the simulation unfolded and my thinking behind each pick. Enjoy!
DRAFT RESULTS:
MOCK DRAFT RECAP
The first five picks in the draft are fairly standard with one possible exception: the Indianapolis Colts draft Kentucky QB Will Levis and not Florida QB Anthony Richardson. Couple that with the Seattle Seahawks drafting Texas Tech DE Tyree Wilson and we, the Lions, are looking at a pretty tough decision! Georgia DT Jalen Carter - arguably the most talented player in the entire draft - and Richardson are both staring right at us. My personal preference if this scenario unfolded for real is that Detroit would take Richardson and not look back, but for our scenario we're looking to trade down, and having these options on the board does garner us a couple phone calls. The first offer we receive is from the Chargers offering picks 21, 54, and a 2024 third round pick. Dropping all the way down to 21 is too far a drop so that's a no to this offer.
The second offer is the more realistic of the two and it's the Tennessee Titans offering picks 11 and 41. That's actually a fairly appealing offer to me because it's only a drop of five spots, which means we should still be able to get a possible top tier player, and we pick up an additional second round pick. Even looking at the draft pick trade value charts this is a solid win for Detroit.
 |
| Tennessee offered picks 11 and 41 to move up to pick 6. |
We accept Tennessee's trade and watch as the Titans draft Richardson to be Ryan Tannehill's successor, followed by Las Vegas drafting Clemson DE Myles Murphy, Atlanta drafting Oregon CB Christian Gonzalez, Chicago drafting Georgia OT Broderick Jones, and Philadelphia drafting Jalen Carter.
This leaves us with some pretty good options, starting with Illinois CB Devon Witherspoon (whom we selected at pick 6 in the last post), Northwestern OT Peter Skoronski, Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Alabama DB Brian Branch, Texas RB Bijan Robinson (whom we selected at pick 18 last time), USC WR Jordan Addison, Iowa DE Lukas Van Ness, and Penn State CB Joey Porter Jr.
For the sake of verisimilitude I'm drafting Witherspoon again. I think if Detroit were to trade down it would be with the hopes that they could still nab Witherspoon outside the Top 10 (or Gonzalez, or Porter Jr.). In this particular scenario it works out really well because Detroit picks up an additional Day 2 pick and gets the guy they (probably) want. That's a win.
Round 1 (Pick #11 - Trade with TEN): Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
After trading down to 11 we only have six players taken before our next selection at 18. Last time we bucked conventional thinking and drafted Robinson, the Longhorns RB typically regarded as a Top 10 player in the draft, with the 18th pick. This time around we can't even make that choice as he's drafted at 16 by Washington. So we get to go a different route this time.
PFN's best players available board is topped by a bunch of cornerbacks and a few receiving options. But if we look at a resource we consulted in our during our last exercise - The Athletic's Dane Brugler's Top 100 - these are the best players available according to Brugler (in order): Georgia EDGE Nolan Smith, Penn State's Porter Jr., Alabama's Branch, Notre Dame TE Michael Mayer, Utah TE Dalton Kincaid, Alabama RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Clemson DT Bryan Bresee, and Tennessee OT Darnell Wright.
Let's talk this out real quick because there's an argument to be made that Detroit could take any of those players, but there's one in particular I'm honing in on. It is not beyond the realm of possibility that Holmes could double dip at cornerback with his first two picks. Remember, he drafted Aidan Hutchinson and Josh Paschal (both defensive ends) with his first two picks last year, and in 2021 he drafted defensive tackles Levi Onwuzurike and Alim McNeil with consecutive picks. But considering the free agents Holmes signed at CB, I don't see them going that route with both first round picks.
Smith could be a good edge rusher to add to the blossoming Lions pass rush, but I'm not as bullish on how he would fit Aaron Glenn's defense. I'm a big skeptic that Holmes would trade T.J. Hockenson and then turn around and spend a first-round pick on a tight end. I do think he'll draft one at some point, but not at 18. Gibbs I could see as a potential Day 2 pick, and same with Bresee. But not at 18.
Instead it's Darnell Wright I'm focused on for a couple reasons. One, I have him ranked as my personal OT1. Do yourself a favor and go watch clips of Wright completely neutralizing Alabama's Will Anderson Jr. and LSU's BJ Ojulari last season. Second, he would fit both a short-term and a long-term need on the offensive line. He could start from Day 1 as a right guard and then make the move to either left or right tackle once Taylor Decker moves on from the Lions. Pairing Wright up with Penei Sewell would just be unfair, and would be a wise investment in keeping Detroit's offensive line one of the best in the league. In this scenario, Wright is a no-brainer to me. (There's a better than decent chance he won't even be available at 18 in a couple weeks.)
Round 1 (Pick #18): Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
In reality the Detroit Lions' next pick would be at pick 48 in the second round, but in our exercise we don't have to wait quite that long thanks to our trade with Tennessee. Even so, some attractive options flew off the board just prior to our pick. Florida OL O'Cyrus Torrence went to Seattle at 37, Iowa LB Jack Campbell went to Las Vegas at 38, and Northwestern DL Adetomiwa Adebawore went to New England at 40.
The best players left on the board are Gibbs, Georgia TE Darnell Washington, Pitt DT Calijah Kancey, Michigan DT Mazi Smith, Arkansas LB Drew Sanders. Of that group I feel safe crossing Sanders off (for now) because Holmes believes off-ball linebackers can be found later in the draft. Kancey and Smith would be nice additions to the defensive line, and Washington was a player we drafted in the last exercise at pick 48.
Gibbs is the pick here for me, though. In the last exercise we drafted Bijan Robinson, but he was taken before our pick at 18. Gibbs is a strong consolation prize as a dynamic runner who can also be a weapon in the passing game. If used properly he could be an Alvin Kamara type of weapon in Ben Johnson's offense. Again there's a belief that running backs don't need to be drafted so high, but at this point Gibbs is the highest-rated player left on both PFN and Dane Brugler's boards. A bit of a luxury pick but the kind of luxury we can afford to take with this extra selection we got in the Titans trade.
Round 2 (Pick #41 - Trade with TEN): Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama
We've reached a fascinating point in this exercise (at least in my eyes) because we're faced with a number of players and options we didn't have last time. There are a couple good defensive tackle options in Mazi Smith and Northwestern's Adetomiwa Adebawore are at the top of the board. The top players facing us on the board here are: Iowa LB Jack Campbell, Tennessee WR Cedric Tillman, Kansas State DE Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Oregon State TE Luke Musgrave, Michigan CB DJ Turner, and Florida DT Gervon Dexter.
Of this grouping, the one's catching my eye are Smith and Adebawore. They would be good additions to Detroit's defensive line, which is one of the few true needs they have entering this draft. Smith is much more of a traditional run-stuffing nose tackle, while Adebawore has the potential to add more as a pass rusher. Of the two Smith is more highly-rated by Pro Football Focus and by Brugler.
Smith, in fact, was number one on The Athletic writer Bruce Feldman's 2022 "Freaks List." Using the unofficial drill results from Feldman's "Freaks" article with Smith's actual Combine measurements and bench press, Smith scores a 9.99 RAS. As impressive as that is, Adebawore has a nearly-as-impressive 9.72 RAS based on his Combine results. Add in his standout week at the Senior Bowl and it's a tough choice to make. Considering Detroit's specific need to defend better against the run, I lean towards Smith in this case but I feel Adebawore would be an excellent selection, too
Round 2 (Pick #48): Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan
Seven selections later we have another tough decision to make from a nice crop of players. Tennessee WR Cedric Tillman tops PFN's board, followed notable by Anudike-Uzomah, Campbell, Turner, Wisconsin DT Keeanu Benton, Utah CB Clark Phillips II, Baylor DT Siaki Ika, and Illinois S Sydney Brown. UCLA RB Zach Charbonnet and North Dakota State OT Cody Mauch are notable offensive players, and though I wouldn't put it past Holmes to double-dip at a position, I don't think RB or OL would be the case here.
Instead I think it's between Tillman, Turner, and Benton. Tillman is that X-receiver Detroit could use in the immediate and long-term. Turner would be another very strong corner to add for the long-term. Benton would be an obvious double-dip at DT after taking Mazi Smith, but again, Detroit has needs in the defensive interior. Turner is the highest-rated player remaining on Dane Brugler's board, which makes me give him the nod at this spot. (Editor Note: This exercise was completed before the news of Jameson Williams' suspension broke.)
Round 2 (Pick #55): DJ Turner, CB, Michigan
For a while between pick 55 and pick 81 there was still a chance of us getting Tillman, but he was snapped up two picks before our spot. Bummer. Best players left on the board are Benton, Dexter, South Carolina CB Darius Rush, Washington State LB Daiyan Henley, Syracuse OT Matthew Bergeron, and Penn State S Ji'Ayir Brown.
While I don't personally think Henley will still be around at this point, I think he'd be a rationale pick at 81 as a linebacker who can cover, which is a skill that's lacking from Detroit's LB corps. Henley is PFF's #38 player and Brugler's #65. He'd be great value at this spot.
But Benton is #55 for both PFF and Brugler, which has me coming around to the idea of double-dipping at DT. Again, run defense was a huge, huge concern for the Lions in 2022 and if they want a real chance of winning the NFC North they absolutely need to improve in that area. So even with the pick of Smith earlier, I'm going Benton at 81 to add to the DT rotation, particularly because I like the idea of rotating him with Mazi.
Round 3 (Pick #81): Keeanu Benton, DT, Wisconsin
Man, that wait between picks 81 and 155 is interminable to me. I'd imagine it's going to feel the same to Holmes next week, so again I wouldn't be shocked if he trades up into the fourth round to get a guy he wants. In this exercise though, there are some excellent values staring us in the face, namely Tulane RB Tyjae Spears and Michigan TE Luke Schoonmaker.
We already drafted a RB in Jahymr Gibbs, but Spears is such an electric running back himself that it wouldn't be the worst idea to double-dip at this point. If you can upgrade at a position, Holmes is going to do it, and I think Spears would be an upgrade over Craig Reynolds and Jermar Jefferson both. Doesn't hurt that he's Brugler's #73 player and PFF's #99. That's the value I was talking about.
Round 5 (Pick #152): Tyjae Spears, RB, Tulane
And a handful of picks later we can draft Michigan TE Luke Schoonmaker. He's a well-rounded TE who can block and catch the ball, he'd make an excellent addition to the Lions, and as he's ranked #90 by Brugler and #96 by PFF he's excellent value at this spot.
Round 5 (Pick #159): Luke Schoonmaker, TE, Michigan
Ninth selection for us in this exercise and we're at a point in the draft where Holmes can start taking some chances, or start taking some calculated, targeted picks. In general Holmes has been successful with these Day 3 picks such as Amon-Ra St. Brown with a fourth-round pick in 2021, and James Houston and Malcom Rodriguez in the sixth round last year.
I'm going on the "take a flier" track with this sixth-round pick and taking a developmental quarterback since we haven't drafted one yet. Plenty are available to choose from: TCU's Max Duggan, Georgia's Stetson Bennett, Houston's Clayton Tune. But I'm taking a swing on the athletic and promising Dorian Thompson-Robinson from UCLA. DTR has a live arm, the ability to run when he needs to, and as a five-year starter for the Bruins he has more experience than most prospects do. He'd be a perfectly fine developmental project to take this late in the draft.
Round 6 (Pick #183): Dorian Thompson-Robinson, QB, UCLA
Tenth and final pick in this exercise and we're going take another swing on someone I think shouts "Dan Campbell Guy" in Indiana LB Cam Jones. Jones was a three-year starter for the Hoosiers and was voted team captain all three years. He's a strong run defender (reminder: Lions' run defense stunk out loud last year), he's a good tackler, and at this point in the draft I think he's the kind of guy Holmes might target since he's a believer that good off-ball linebackers can be found late in the draft. Remember the main purpose of this exercise is to be introduced to or learn more about potential Lions draft targets, and I think Jones fits that to a tee.
Round 6 (Pick #194): Cam Jones, LB, Indiana
There we have it! A long post which I apologize for (it also took me quite a while to complete) but I think if the real Detroit Lions had this kind of draft it would be a home run. We were able to snag guys like Gibbs, Smith, and Benton later than I think they'll actually go in the draft, but you just never know. We addressed needs, we added a lot of talent, and even though we double-dipped at a couple positions I think it's entirely possible Holmes could do that.
I hope you enjoyed reading this post - especially if you got this far - and keep an eye out next week for the third and likely final exercise where we trade up in the draft. I'll also have my own official mock draft posted on draft day, so sit there in anticipation of that coming out next week, too. Thanks for reading!
No comments:
Post a Comment