Now we are just shy of two weeks from the 2023 NFL Draft, so I want to get back to doing mock draft exercises like I did two years ago where I did a number of different scenarios. Over the coming weeks I'll do a variety scenarios such as what it might look like if the Detroit Lions were to trade up from the 6th overall pick, what it might look like if they traded down from the 6th pick, and what it might look like if they trade up from the 18th pick. But to get started today we'll see what it might look like if the Lions stay put and select a player with the 6th overall pick.
As usual, some explanation for how I typically handle mock draft simulations for these posts:
- I try to think along the lines of Lions GM Brad Holmes and Head Coach Dan Campbell...but ultimately I'll be making a lot of picks with what I think just makes sense given the circumstances.
- Due to the nature of mock draft simulators being an algorithm and subject to randomness, let's keep in mind that some players may fall in these simulations and be available to me when they probably won't be available for Detroit in real life. Each site also has their own rankings for the players in the draft, so there will be some variance in that alone. So if a guy like Darnell Washington somehow falls to me in the 3rd round, I won't be passing on him just because I think it's unrealistic for him to fall that far.
- We'll be utilizing The Draft Network's Mock Draft Machine for this exercise, but going forward I'll likely switch to Pro Football Network's as TDN's site has been very buggy and crashed when I tried saving my mock draft results.
In the past I've tried compiling a Draft Needs list to help us along the way, but after two years of Brad Holmes drafting for the Lions, we've learned that Holmes tends to draft on a best-player basis. Alternatively he often times targets a guy he wants and he goes and gets him, such as trading up for Jameson Williams last year. Holmes has even said they won't have a depth chart in the draft room with them, saying, "I just think you can make a lot of mistakes with that. I've been in regimes in the past that have had a depth chart in the draft room, and I've just never been a fan of that." So I will not be beholden to drafting for need if there is a clear best player available sitting in front of me during these exercises.
As always, this exercise is for fun. I'm not worried about my accuracy being judged too harshly.
This is more of a thought exercise to see who the Lions might have available to them and who they might draft in reality. In 2021 I did three different exercises, three different scenarios, and at various points in those exercises I had Detroit draft Amon-Ra St. Brown, Alim McNeil, and Levi Onwuzurike, all of whom Detroit actually did draft that April. That's the kind of thing I'm talking about here.Sorry for the lengthy intro! If you just want to see the snapshot of the mock simulation, the results are listed below. After that (and after the jump) I've written out a more detailed summary of how the simulation unfolded and my thinking behind each pick. Enjoy!
DRAFT RESULTS:
Round 1 (Pick #6): Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
Round 1 (Pick #18): Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
Round 2 (Pick #48): Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia
To kick off our simulation exercise, The Draft Network went pretty chalk. Bryce Young to Carolina at 1, C.J. Stroud to Houston at 2, Will Anderson, Jr. to Arizona at 3, Anthony Richardson to Indianapolis at 4, and Jalen Carter to Seattle at 5. This is, I'm sure, the most expected situation for most people, leaving the Lions deciding between Texas Tech DE Tyree Wilson, Illinois CB Devon Witherspoon, Oregon CB Christian Gonzalez, Kentucky QB Will Levis, and a smattering of offensive tackles, wide receivers, and Texas RB Bijan Robinson as the best available players.
In this scenario we're not trading up or down, but I do find it notable that we're receiving significant trade interest. Philadelphia is offering picks 10, 63, and 95 for the 6th pick. Seattle is offering pick 20 and their 2024 1st. Other teams are offering even more picks but for larger drops in draft order for Detroit*. If this was our "trade down" scenario I would jump on Philaelphia's offer to move down a few spots and pick up additional 2nd and 3rd round picks. Alas, we're staying put.
And by staying put at 6 I think the most likely options are Witherspoon, Gonzalez, and Wilson. The Lions have done a remarkable job overhauling their secondary room this offseason by signing Cam Sutton, Emmanuel Moseley, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson. Even so, of those three only Sutton is signed beyond 2023 so cornerback is still a long-term need for the Lions. Witherspoon and Gonzalez are the consensus top two corners in the draft and both fit the Lions. My gut tells me Witherspoon's tenacious demeanor and style of play makes him the more logical choice, and I can see Detroit drafting him at 6 or even later if they're able to trade back a bit.
Quick note: Tyree Wilson is a popular mock to Detroit because Brad Holmes loves to build through the trenches and Wilson could be an excellent addition to the Lions' defensive line. I've read and heard various analysts opine that Wilson may have been misused at Texas Tech despite his good production for the Red Raiders and his potential as both a pass rusher and run defender makes him tantalizing.
Round 1 (Pick #6): Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
In the second round Detroit picks again at pick 55, so only a handful of players go off the board between picks including linebackers Trenton Simpson and Jack Campbell, but also notable running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and Zach Charbonnet, which frankly leaves us with a lot of good options.
On TND's best available board we still have Kincaid, Forbes, Banks, Musgrave, and Torrence. We also have North Dakota State OT Cody Mauch, Michigan CB DJ Turner, Tennessee WR Cedric Tillman, and Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker. A couple of players lower on TDN's board that I think are also viable options at 55 are TCU OL Steve Avila and Wisconsin DT Keeanu Benton. (I'm sure we'll talk about those guys at some point.)
But for now in this exercise, the names that jump out are Torrence, Tillman, and Hooker. Torrence would fill that immediate and long-term need at guard and would be a great value pick here. Tillman is an X-receiver who could be a long-term addition to the WR corps. But I think we have to lean towards Hooker here. The Lions notably spoke with Hooker at the Senior Bowl, and they're using one of their Top-30 visits to have Hooker go to Allen Park to meet with the team again (likely to get another look at his recovery from a torn ACL). Could be a smokescreen, could be legitimate interest. I tend to lean towards the latter, and at pick 55 I think Detroit would pull the trigger if Hooker is still there.
Round 2 (Pick #55): Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee
As it currently stands the Detroit Lions do not have a fourth round pick in the 2023 draft, so once we get to pick 81 in the third round I start to wonder if Holmes truly goes best player available or targets a specific player. Right now the best players available on TDN's board are Michigan CB DJ Turner, Stanford CB Kyu Blu Kelly, Iowa TE Sam LaPorta, and Syracuse CB Garrett Williams, but we've already addressed TE and CB. Does Brad Holmes double-dip at a position? He's done it in both of his previous drafts, taking Levi Onwuzurike and Alim McNeil in consecutive selections in 2021, and taking Aidan Hutchinson, Josh Paschal, and James Houston in 2022. I think it's conceivable that Detroit could double-dip at CB due to the long-term depth, and picking DJ Turner would be a very, very good value in my opinion. For reference, if we look at another resource in The Athletic's Dane Brugler (a writer a respect highly), Brugler has Turner ranked as his 42nd overall player.
Let's quickly compare the rankings of some other players on the board that differ between TDN and Brugler before we make our selection. Brugler ranks Ohio State DE Zach Harrison as his 74th overall player while TDN has Harrison 78th. TDN has Wisconsin DT Keeanu Benton as their 98th overall player, while Brugler has him rated 56th overall. TDN has TCU OL Steve Avila ranked 105th while Dane has him ranked 40th!
And it's Avila I'm homing in on with the 81st selection. Not only is he the highest-rated player left on a big board from a smarter football mind than mine, but he fits an immediate and long-term need at offensive guard. Avila played basically every position along the offensive line during his three years at TCU, so he's position-flexible, which is something this Lions regime has shown to value in a player. Avila can start at right guard from Day 1 if he needs to, otherwise he can be a strong depth piece his rookie year behind Jackson, Vaitai, and Glasgow, then move into the starting lineup in 2024. Also worth noting Avila is one of the 30 players Detroit has brought to Allen Park in the pre-draft process, too.
Round 3 (Pick #81): Steve Avila, OL, TCU
As previously mentioned, the Lions do not currently have a fourth round pick. So it's been quite a wait between picks 81 and pick 153. The nice thing is Detroit does have two fifth round picks now thanks to the Jeff Okudah trade, so we'll have multiple picks in relatively quick succession.
The best players remaining in this simulation according to Brugler are Louisville DE YaYa Diaby, Tulane RB Tyjae Spears, Michigan State WR Jayden Reed, Ole Miss WR Jonathan Mingo, and Missouri EDGE Isaiah McGuire. Diaby is intriguing as he has James Houston-like qualities as a potential edge rusher. Spears is also intriguing because he's flat out explosive as a runner, and in another scenario where we haven't already drafted Bijan Robinson I think Spears is a no-brainer here.
But it's Reed and Mingo who are really standing out at the moment. Mingo would be a prototypical, big bodied X-receiver who is drawing comparisons to Philadelphia Eagles WR A.J. Brown (at least from the perspective of their size and they both played for Ole Miss). Reed is definitely smaller and not your typical X-receiver, but damn is he explosive. Reed met with the Lions at the Combine so we know there's some interest there, plus Reed fits the deep ball threat bill that Brad Holmes has been drawn to in his tenure in Detroit (see: Tyrell Williams, Breshad Perriman, DJ Chark, Jameson Williams, etc.).
Round 5 (Pick #152): Jayden Reed, WR, Michigan State
Seven selections later YaYa Diaby is still on the board and he's the highest-rated player left on Brugler's board, so that makes him an easy selection for me even if he does overlap a bit with Charles Harris and the Okwara brothers. Remember, Holmes doesn't bring a depth chart into the draft room.
For added emphasis, Diaby scored a phenomenal 9.86 Relative Athletic Score. Created by Lions fan Kent Lee Platte, Platte describes RAS as "a metric that can easily and intuitively gauge a player's athletic abilities relative to the position they play and provide tools to contrast and compare based on known measurables." So when I look at the RAS database (which goes back to 1987) and see Diaby's RAS is the 38th-best for a defensive end, I think that's the kind of guy I can take a swing at in the fifth round.
Round 5 (Pick #159): YaYa Diaby, EDGE, Louisville
At pick 183 I'm debating between pure "best player available" and trying to address any needs we haven't addressed yet. We haven't addressed defensive tackle at all and there's a couple intriguing names on the board. One is Texas DT Moro Ojomo and the other is Bowling Green DT Karl Brooks. Ojomo is huge with just a massive wingspan, and despite being a 4-year starter for the Longhorns he's still just 21 years old. Doesn't hurt that he scored a very good 9.16 RAS.
Brooks played more along the line for Bowling Green, excelling as a pass rusher, where he led the Falcons in sacks in each of his five seasons. He seems to be in more of a tweener role and would likely only play early on in pass rushing downs, but that's not necessarily a bad thing if he can develop as he goes along (see: James Houston). Considering Detroit's need to bolster their run defense, however, I'm leaning towards Ojomo between the two.
Round 6 (Pick #183): Moro Ojomo, DT, Texas
With Detroit's final pick, I'm going to double-dip and take Karl Brooks anyway. There are players still on the board that I think would be potential options for Detroit and maybe we'll get to them in subsequent exercises, but guys like UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Purdue and QB Aidan O'Connoll are off our board because we drafted Hooker here, and East Carolina RB Keaton Mitchell is redundant because we drafted Bijan Robinson and already have Jermar Jefferson on the practice squad. But Brooks would help address that future depth at defensive tackle since Isaiah Buggs is likely not a long-term piece, and Levi Onwuzurike has likely played his last football.
Round 6 (Pick #194): Karl Brooks, DT, Bowling Green
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