While the deadline to decide whether or not to place the franchise tag on star defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh wasn't until 4:00pm EST, the Detroit Lions announced they had made up their mind and were going to let Suh go untagged. Thus came the conclusion to the first part of the Suh free agency saga and the beginning of the next part. Suh is now scheduled to become a free agent on March 10th, should he and the Lions not come to a contract extension between now and then. Should Suh hit the market he'll arguably become the largest defensive free agent since Reggie White left the Philadelphia Eagles for the Green Bay Packers.
Suh will be looking to become the highest-paid defensive player in NFL history. Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt currently holds that title with the 6-year, $100 million deal he agreed to with Houston back in September, which also came with a staggering $51.8 million signing bonus. As I mentioned in my post about Suh back in January, I predicted Suh would land at least a contract of 6 years, $102 million overall with a $52 million signing bonus. If he actually hits the free market, he'll probably make even more.
I still think the Lions have a real shot at re-signing Suh because they have exclusive negotiating rights with him until Saturday, March 7, when a three-day negotiating period opens for the rest of the league. But it's going to take a big contract to bring him back, which is why I think they're first going to have to let him see what his market is and they try to win him back.
So after the jump let's take a look at where Suh might actually wind up should he leave the Honolulu Blue behind, starting with a peak at the 20 teams that have more cap space than the Lions do. These numbers are each team's estimated cap space according to Over The Cap.
Teams with More Cap Space Than Detroit (in millions)
Jacksonville Jaguars - $68.2
Oakland Raiders - $55.4
Cleveland Browns - $53.7
New York Jets - $51.4
Indianapolis Colts - $45.2
Tennessee Titans - $44.4
Cincinnati Bengals - $40.8
Atlanta Falcons - $33.3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - $33.2
Green Bay Packers - $33.1
Buffalo Bills - $31.0
San Diego Chargers - $30.0
Denver Broncos - $29.4
Chicago Bears - $28.5
Washington's NFL team - $28.1
Philadelphia Eagles - $27.6
Seattle Seahawks - $25.7
New York Giants - $24.2
Minnesota Vikings - $23.0
Dallas Cowboys - $18.7
Detroit Lions - $18.4
As we can see, a lot of teams have a lot of cap space this year. Most of those teams' space will go towards resigning some of their own guys (like the Packers possibly trying to hold on to Randall Cobb, B.J. Raji and Bryan Bulaga), or towards raises for some of their current players (like a possible extension/raise for Seattle QB Russell Wilson).
Of these teams with more space than the Lions, the most mentioned and most likely landing spots for Suh are Jacksonville, Oakland, Cleveland, Indianapolis and the New York Jets. Not coincidentally those are the five teams with the most cap space.
Oakland and Jacksonville actually need to spend a lot of their cap space because they've been spending below the NFL's salary floor the last couple of years and need to get above it. Hence why it's possible Suh could get an astronomically high offer from either team.
Of the two, Oakland seems like a natural fit for Suh because of his tenacity, reputation, and the Raiders' own history. The fact that they can offer Suh a buttload of money and that Oakland is pretty close to Suh's offseason home in Oregon doesn't hurt. But if winning is actually an important factor for Suh, you might be able to cross Oakland off the list. They have some bright spots, but they're still a ways away from contending.
Jacksonville...is Jacksonville. Unless Suh's all about the money and the Jags offer him the most, ain't no way Suh is going there.
The Jets make some sense because they're starting over with a new, defense-oriented head coach in Todd Bowles; they have a lot of money to spend; and because it's New York City. It's been said time and again that Suh wants to be a big marketing star, and where better to become even bigger than he is now than the Big Apple? Suh's playing style would probably be adored by New York fans, too, I'm assuming.
Cleveland has the money but I don't see the fit. Other than cold hard cash, I see no reason Suh would be interested in them. (Unless he really likes the new shade of orange the Browns have gone to I suppose.)
Indianapolis is intriguing because of this group of teams they're the best landing spot if Suh wants to win. The Colts have a lot of good pieces but could really use Suh, and Suh would probably be very disruptive in a generally weak division. Imagine him getting to go against the Titans, Jaguars and Texans twice a season apiece.
The biggest hang-up for Indy, though, is the fact that Andrew Luck is gonna get PAID in the very near future. Hell, he'll probably get the largest contract in NFL history. Because of that gargantuan deal in the Colts' future, will they be able to pony up enough for Suh, then Luck, then other pieces? It's possible (see: the Lions the past few years) but it'd be dicey.
Another team to watch out for in my mind is Atlanta. The Falcons could desperately use Suh and they have the money to get him. Atlanta may not be Seattle, but maybe Suh could help turn former Seattle
Speaking of Seattle, the Seahawks are rumored to be Suh's preferred landing spot (they're best team in the NFC, they're close to his home), but much like Indianapolis I don't think Seattle can afford both Suh and the future deal they need to give their own franchise QB, Russell Wilson. There's a very small chance Suh could take a discount to play for the Seahawks, but that would go against every indication he and his agent have shown the past year.
There's always a chance a surprise team could jump in there, but these are the likely landing spots outside of Detroit. Expect Suh to hold off on signing any extension with the Lions until after he's able to hear what other teams are willing to pay him, but don't rule out the Lions just yet. They know how important he is to their second-best-in-the-league defense. But I won't be surprised if Suh is wearing Raiders black and silver or Indianapolis blue and white this fall.
(My next post will be an overview of some potential free agents the Lions might go after should they lose Suh. So keep an eye peeled for that relatively soon, too.)
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