The Detroit Lions concluded their relatively successful 2014 season on a sour note this past Sunday, losing to the Dallas Cowboys 24-20 in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. Now they move on to the offseason and it looks to be not only a busy one but possibly their most important one under general manager Martin Mayhew; one rife with questions all along the roster. Of those questions, none looms larger than "Should the Lions re-sign Ndamukong Suh?" It's a relatively heated topic considering Suh's history both on and off the field. Honestly, this should be a no-brainer, but because of Suh's checkered history in his time as a Lion, it's not as cut-and-dried as you'd think it would be.
When people think of Suh, these are just a few of the transgressions that stand out in their minds:
- 2010: A $20,000 fine for twisting Cleveland Browns QB Jake Delhomme's helmet around on a sack attempt in a preseason game, and a $15,000 fine for roughing Chicago Bears QB Jay Cutler (in what most assuredly was a clean but strong shove on Cutler while he was scrambling)
- 2011: Stomping on Green Bay Packers guard Evan Dietrich-Smith's arm, which garnered both a $165,294 fine and a two-game suspension (the only games Suh has ever missed as a Lion)
- 2012: Kicking Houston Texans QB Matt Schaub in the groin, resulting in a $30,000 fine
- 2013: A low block on Minnesota Vikings center John Sullivan during a DeAndre Levy interception return that resulted in a gigantic $100,000 fine.
This season Suh had a clean slate up until he stepped on Packers QB Aaron Rodgers while he laid on the ground, which originally got Suh suspended for the Wild Card game against Dallas but was eventually turned into a simple $70,000 fine on appeal.
It's quite a long rap sheet and I've left a few out. Plus, those are just some of the on-field transgressions that he was actually fined for. He's regarded as a dirty player who hits late, pushes players' heads into the ground, twists players' ankles in scrums, etc. Suh has also had a number of traffic incidents that have resulted in legal fines and even one lawsuit.
Needless to say, it's easy to see why some Lions fans and national pundits believe the Lions shouldn't re-sign Suh. "He's a dirty player," they say. "He's not a team player," they claim. "He only cares about himself," is a popular one.
All those things may be true. But here are some other facts:
- Suh just completed his fifth season in the NFL and he has been named All-Pro first-team in four of those years. Less prestigious but still somewhat noteworthy is that Suh is also a four-time Pro Bowler.
- Suh has amassed 241 tackles, 36 sacks (including a back-to-back pair in Sunday's Wild Card game), 2 forced fumbles and 1 interception.
- Suh has grown as a position leader, if not necessarily a team leader, having given his fellow defensive linemen reclining seats for the film room in the past, and gifting tubs of popcorn for film room this year along with ugly Christmas sweaters for a group photo just last month.
- And as AOL's Annie Moore points out…
"Suh was named America's most charitable athlete by The Giving Back Fund in 2011. Suh donated $2.6 million to his alma mater, the University of Nebraska, to go towards strength and conditioning programs, as well as set up an endowed fund for the Nebraska College of Engineering -- which Suh graduated from with a degree in construction management. Suh's $2.6 million donation was more than Eli Manning (University of Mississippi) and Tom Brady (the Red Cross) donated, combined. Not to mention his efforts through his own charity programs, including the Ndamukong Suh Family Fund, Camp SUH, the 90 Backpack Program and SUH's Scholar Program."
Those points are usually left out of the conversation when discussing Suh's career as a Detroit Lions.
Now, I'm sure some of you might be asking how any of that pertains to the future and whether the Lions should bring Suh back or not. Fair enough. Let's get to talking about Suh's value on the field and on the bottom line after the jump.
SUH'S ON-FIELD VALUE
The 2014 Detroit Lions finished the regular season as the number two defense in the NFL based on yards allowed per game and points allowed per game, only behind the Seattle Seahawks. More pertinent to our discussion here, however, is that the Lions were the number one rush defense in the league, allowing just 69.3 rushing yards per game.
Suh was an enormous reason for the Lions having such a great rush defense. Courtesy of ESPN Stats and Info, the Lions held opponents to 3.0 yards per rush when Suh was on the field, whereas they allowed 3.8 yards per rush when he wasn't. It may seem like a small difference, but it's the difference between a team running the ball three consecutive times and getting a first down or not getting a first down.
Suh is phenomenal at clogging up running lanes when he's on the field, so even when he doesn't make the tackle himself he helps linebackers get better shots at tackling the ballcarrier or getting sacks, and he helps his fellow linemen by usually taking up two blockers so they only have to take on one.
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| A perfect example of Suh's value for the defense: Look at how Suh (circled) is being double-teamed, which allows DeAndre Levy (arrow) a clear path to the quarterback. Levy got an easy sack on this play in Week 14 vs. Tampa. |
Maybe more impressive though is Suh's impact on the pass rush. Again courtesy of ESPN Stats and Info, when Suh was on the field the Lions pressured quarterbacks on 30.1% of dropbacks and sacked quarterbacks on 7.3% of dropbacks. When Suh wasn't on the field, those numbers dropped to 19% and 2.6%, respectively.
When watching games it's easy to tell that Suh truly does have that effect on the pass rush since, again, he usually takes up two blockers which frees up guys like Ezekiel Ansah and George Johnson to face a single blocker. There have been numerous times where Suh bursts up the middle and forced the quarterback into moving around the pocket where another Lion rusher was able to bring him down.
So while Suh has good stats for his position, it's the other things he adds to the defensive line simply from being such a disruptive force in stopping the run and rushing the passer that bolsters his on-field value to the Lions. Now let's take a look at the financial impact of letting him walk or bringing him back.
HOW MUCH DOES IT COST TO SUH? - Part 1
If the Lions want to keep Suh in Honolulu Blue, there's one simple way they can do that: the franchise tag.
There are two versions of the franchise tag: exclusive and non-exclusive. In essence, the exclusive franchise tag is a designation that allows a team to retain one of their players on a one-year contract for the cost of either the average of the top 5 salaries at that player's position or for 120% the cost of the player's previous salary, whichever is higher. It also completely blocks the tagged player from negotiating with any other team.
The non-exclusive franchise tag differs from the exclusive one only in that it allows the tagged player to negotiate with other teams, and should the player strike a deal with another team, that player's original team would receive two first-round draft picks as compensation.
That's quite a cost for one year, and it doesn't even include the additional $9,737,000 that Suh will count against Detroit's salary cap in 2015 because of prior restructures he and the Lions made to his contract to give Detroit financial flexibility in the past.
But is franchising him the best move?
The 2015 salary cap is projected to be about $140 million, so at first glance a large salary like Suh would get wouldn't seem awful. But we'd need to add in the fact that Calvin Johnson is due $20,558,000 and Matthew Stafford is due $17,721,500 in 2015, so the total cost of Megatron, Stafford and Suh would be $74,916,150 if Suh gets the franchise tag. That number is clearly more than 50% of the projected $140 million salary cap. As much as I think Suh is a pivotal member of the Lions defense, that's possibly too much to pay.
Detroit could choose to be risky and tag Suh with the non-exclusive franchise tag and receive two first-round draft picks in the event that he does leave for other pastures, but it'd be a tough pill to swallow financially if the draft pick compensation scared other teams away and he returned with a $26.9 million salary.
HOW MUCH DOES IT COST TO SUH? - Part 2
The other, more likely option is that Detroit will let Suh hit free agency and attempt to retain his services with a fresh, possibly record-breaking contract.
Suh has essentially said he's going to let his agent, Jimmy Sexton, decide where Suh will be playing in 2015, which many people have interpreted as Suh saying he'll go to the highest bidder.
And most likely, Sexton will be trying to get his client a deal larger than the record deal Houston Texans DE J.J. Watt received back in September.
Watt (who just finished an absurd season where he became the first player in NFL history to accrue 20.5 sacks in two different seasons and tossed in three TD receptions as a bonus) received a 6-year, $100 million contract that came with $51,876,000 guaranteed. That deal works out to an average of $16,667,500 per season.
I'm slightly skeptical that Suh will receive significantly more than Watt received simply because Suh is 28 years old compared to Watt being 25 and having gaudier stats, but it's very likely he'll get a similar deal.
Another barometer for Suh's potential contract is Tampa Bay Buccaneers DT Gerald McCoy. McCoy signed a 6-year, $95.2 million contract extension that was the largest contract ever for his position prior to the 2014 season. McCoy received $51,500,000 guaranteed and it comes out to an average of $15,866,667 per season.
Overall, it would appear that if the Lions let Suh get to free agency they will need to pony up a contract at least 6 years in length for around $100 million, with around $52 million of it guaranteed.
Should the Lions pay that much? And will it even be enough?
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| If Suh hits free agency at least one-third of the league will go after his services. |
So let's say the Lions will need to offer a 6-year, $102 million contract with $52 million guaranteed just to be in the conversation. That would give Suh slightly more money overall, guaranteed and a slightly higher average per year than Watt just received.
If that is the kind of deal the Lions will need to offer Suh, I think it's one they absolutely should make. In my opinion Suh is too important to how the Lions defense functions for them to lose him.
There will be plenty of people who argue the Lions would be better served letting Suh walk and using the money it would take to keep him so they can re-sign fellow impending free agent DT Nick Fairley instead, then use the rest of the cap space to shore up other areas of need like the offensive line.
But Fairley isn't the impact player Suh is, nor is he the same kind of athlete. As mentioned earlier, Suh has only missed two games in his entire career and it was because of a suspension, not an injury. Fairley has missed 17 games in his Lions career including the final eight regular season games in 2014 and the playoff game in Dallas.
Fairley was having a good season prior to suffering a season-ending knee injury halfway through what could've been his best season yet, but even if he did have a breakthrough season it wouldn't have come close to the impact Suh has.
$26.9 million for one season is too rich for my blood, but if it keeps Suh a Detroit Lion and gives them more time to reach a possible contract extension, that's fine. The best course of action is to let him get to free agency, gauge the market for his services, then get involved with the bidding if it's not too rich. If he leaves as a free agent then use that freed up cap space to sign other players.
But overall, Ndamukong Suh is a generational talent. If the Lions let him leave, it may take them a decade or more to find another player like him. The Detroit Lions' top priority this offseason is and should be to re-sign Ndamukong Suh. Hopefully they can get it done.
Photo Courtesies: atlantablackstar.com MLive, Fox Sports
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