Debunking the Reasons Why Harbaugh Won't Leave the NFL
UPDATE (12/27/14): This morning I received a text message from a good friend who has connections in the Michigan Athletic Department. This friend informed me that two separate sources of his were telling him very similar things about Jim Harbaugh and the opening at Michigan. I asked the friend if he could share either of the correspondences so that I may share it here on the blog and he obliged. FWIW, after receiving the screen grab of the text, I verified that the source is very much someone inside Michigan who would be in the know regarding the kind of information he shared.
Below I have transcribed the text my friend shared with me, with the actual image posted below that:
"I know our top guys are in San Francisco this weekend and we are preparing the press conference for Wednesday or Thursday. Like I said on the phone, it all hinges on if (49ers general manager) Mr. Baalke and (49ers owner) Mr. York drag there [sic] collective feet but our understanding is that Mr. Harbaugh has a meeting first thing Monday morning with the decision makers in San Fran and we expect him to ask for his release. So as of now that's the timeline we project but these things always change last minute but I can say it's what we expect."
The scuttlebutt online today is that something official with Harbaugh and Michigan could happen as soon as Tuesday, with some saying Harbaugh will even be at Michigan's men's basketball game vs. Illinois that afternoon. According to my friend's source, UM is preparing for a presser on Wednesday or Thursday, but even he says at the end that that's only the timeline they expect, so don't necessarily take this for gospel.
Some outlets, most notably Bleacher Report, are saying it's a basically a done deal. I'd say there's a 1-in-1000 chance the Raiders could still swoop in, but overall, I'd take this just to say Michigan is in fact at the one-yard line and is as on the precipice of punching it in.
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University of Michigan interim athletic director Jim Hackett fired former Michigan football head coach Brady Hoke on December 2nd. It has been 3 weeks to the day since Hoke’s ouster and still Michigan has yet to hire his replacement. But we all know the primary reason for this: Hackett and all the Wolverine faithful are waiting for the San Francisco 49ers lame duck head coach Jim Harbaugh to become available.
The Niners’ season comes to an end this Sunday, December 28th. Once their season concludes it’s widely expected that San Francisco will officially cut ties with Harbaugh, even though Harbaugh has one year and $5 million remaining on his contract.
Everyone and their mother knows that Harbaugh is Michigan’s top candidate to replace Hoke as head coach of the Wolverines football program.
Hackett and Co. have been incredibly patient in their pursuit of Harbaugh - hiring the search firm Korn Ferry to thoroughly vet numerous candidates and never officially commenting on their pursuit of Harbaugh even after it was reported that Michigan has offered the coach a contract in the neighborhood of 6-8 years for $48 or $49 million, depending on whom you listen to.
In the blogosphere and Twitterverse, rumblings have been ranging from cautious optimism to outright claims that Harbaugh to Michigan is a “done deal.” And yet…skepticism remains from local to national reporters that Harbaugh won’t leave the NFL for the college ranks. (To be fair, that skepticism has been waning the last couple days, but it's still there.)
Let’s take a look at some of the more popular reasons these reporters and bloggers say Harbaugh won’t be Michigan’s next coach and poke holes in them after the jump, shall we?
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1.) “NFL coaches don’t leave the NFL for college unless they’re out of options!”
This is an easy one to dismiss right out of the gate, because there has been more than one occasion of a NFL coach going back to college without being forced into doing so.
Alabama head coach Nick Saban is the obvious example here. Yes, he was struggling a bit in his first season as the Miami Dolphins head coach, but he voluntarily returned to the college game because he knew that’s where his style of coaching worked best. Here’s a great GQ profile on Saban that explains that.
Other than Saban, here’s a good list of other coaches who returned to college after coaching in the NFL by the excellent Michigan sports blog MGoBlog. It includes notable names such as Pete Carroll, Al Groh and freaking Bill Walsh.
Bottom line on this point: it’s not unheard of for NFL coaches to return to the college game when presented with multiple options.
2.) “His wife loves the Bay Area!”
Look, I’m as big a proponent of the “Happy wife, happy life” mantra as anybody, but this one has already been debunked. ESPN’s Adam Schefter (once one of the biggest “No way he leaves the NFL” voices out there) has reported that Harbaugh’s wife has given her blessing if Jim wants to move back to Ann Arbor.
Aside from that, if Harbaugh’s wife had that much sway over his coaching future, that writes off any non-California NFL team doesn’t it? That would leave Oakland as the only true possibility, but even they are generally thought of as one of the favorite NFL franchises to eventually move to Los Angeles. While it’s still the same state and region, that’s not the Bay Area, either.
Either way, this argument is moot.
3.) “He’ll have tons of NFL teams vying for him!”
While Harbaugh will certainly have a number of NFL teams that might have head coaching vacancies interested in his services come season’s end, it’s looking more and more like it won’t be a large number like most thought it could be.
These are the teams that are/were generally thought to potentially have a head coach vacancy at the end of the season: Oakland Raiders, New York Jets, Miami Dolphins, Chicago Bears, Washington Redskins, Atlanta Falcons, New York Giants, and Carolina Panthers. Sometimes there's a surprise firing, but these are the most likely to make a change.
A relatively long list, but the teams most closely associated with Harbaugh’s name are only Oakland, the Jets, Chicago, Miami and Atlanta. And already we’ve had Miami Dolphins owner (and Michigan’s biggest donor) Stephen Ross say Joe Philbin will return next season, so cross them off the list.
Atlanta was a late addition, but they might end up winning their division if they beat Carolina in Week 17. If that’s the case, Mike Smith probably saves his job. If Smith gets fired, Atlanta might be one of the biggest NFL suitors for Harbaugh. But for now, Smith seems to be okay.
That leaves the Raiders, Bears and Jets as the 3 real possibilities Michigan needs to worry about.
It’s been rumored that Oakland might be willing to give Harbaugh complete control not unlike the kind Bill Belicheck and Pete Carroll have. It’s been said Oakland would hand over piles of cash, too. And yet…after starting 0-11 the Raiders have won 3 of their last 5 games (including a victory over Harbaugh’s 49ers) under interim head coach Tony Sparano. It’s been enough to cause some speculation that Sparano could end up getting the full-time gig. I believe that’s more likely only if Harbaugh is off the table, but considering Oakland general manager Reggie McKenzie actually did a decent job in the last draft, it’s possible Oakland wouldn’t end up offering Harbaugh total control.
The Bears could be contenders for Harbaugh’s services. Multiple reports say they're interested in their former quarterback. And while I've seen some people say Bears ownership may not be willing to pay the money Harbaugh would command, it's not like the McCaskey family are on a string budget. That said, while money probably isn’t the overriding factor for Harbaugh, it’s been said he would like to try and set a new bar for coaches’ salaries. If the Bears won't cough up the salary and draft picks necessary to get him, write them off.
As for the Jets, in the two-day-long process of me writing this post Sports Illustrated's Pete Thamel tweeted that the Jets apparently have no real interest in Harbaugh.
Overall, there will be a few NFL teams that have real interest in Harbaugh, but I think the real question is whether Harbaugh will have reciprocating interest in those particular teams or not.
4.) “His goal is to win the Super Bowl!”
Well, yeah. Duh. Isn’t it every football coach’s ultimate goal to win the Super Bowl? It’s certainly every NFL coach’s goal considering that’s what they’re generally hired to do, but I digress.
When bringing up this point regarding Harbaugh, it’s probably the strongest argument people can make for the NFL. Harbaugh wouldn’t have jumped from the great job he was doing at Stanford to the Niners job if that wasn’t a goal of his. It’s an obvious one.
Hell, the fact that Harbaugh has gotten this close to actually winning the Lombardi Trophy probably earns this argument some more merit than most. Three NFC Championship Game appearances and a close loss in the Super Bowl against his own brother has to make that itch pretty big.
But here’s the rub: even if Harbaugh takes the Michigan job it doesn’t mean he can’t ever return to the NFL. Regardless of whether he fails or succeeds should he take the Michigan job, Harbaugh will always be welcomed in the NFL because of the success he’s had. He could absolutely bomb at Michigan and some team (like Oakland!) would probably stumble over themselves should Michigan ever fire him or he announces he wants to return to the NFL. More likely he's pretty successful and decides to give the NFL a shot again down the road.
A comparative example of this would be Pete Carroll. Despite not being a world beater in his first stint as a NFL head coach, Carroll turned USC into a powerhouse during his 9-year tenure and parlayed it into getting the Seahawks jobs after NCAA sanctions were going to be lowered on him. And then he won a Super Bowl. I repeat: he coached in college for just shy of a decade, then returned to the NFL and won a Super Bowl.
Obviously Michigan and everyone who has some kind of investment in their football program would hate it should Harbaugh take the job and then eventually leave it - either because he’d have failed or because he’d have succeeded and then left - but what if he leaves the program in good hands like he did the Stanford job? I think Michigan would be just fine with that. I know as a Michigan fan I would be fine with that.
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There are a couple legitimate reasons Harbaugh might ultimately remain in the NFL. He very well could love the NFL more and wish to stay there. He might think the Raiders job is a challenge he can't turn down. Maybe he harbors a love for the city of Chicago that he hasn't shared with anyone. Lots of possibilities.
In the end, though, I think Harbaugh returns to Ann Arbor. I think the tide has certainly turned that way and only a situation where a job more attractive than the Raiders or Bears opens up will Harbaugh remain in the NFL.
Parting shot: don't underestimate how important the first 24-48 hours after Harbaugh is relieved of his duties as San Francisco's coach are to Michigan. That is their prime window of opportunity to seal the deal. If Harbaugh hasn't made up his mind by then it gives prospective NFL teams more of a chance because it gives them more time to do things like fire their own coach, interview other candidates to comply with the Rooney Rule, etc. My guess? Harbaugh is announced as Michigan's new head coach by New Year's Eve.
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