The Official Keck Thoughts 2023 NFL Mock Draft

"Vontae Mack No Matter What."

It's Draft Day, which means it's time for the Official Keck Thoughts 2023 Mock Draft! As always these are my predictions for where I think teams will pick players. Last year I didn't project any trades, but this year I am because this draft appears to be more unpredictable than any in recent history and it was impossible for me to figure out what I thought would happen without projecting some trades.

Last year I correctly picked 9 players to the teams that ended up drafting them, 5 of which were in the exact correct spot, 4 in a different spot than I predicted but still to the right team. Let's see how I do this year.

KECK THOUGHTS 2023 NFL MOCK DRAFT 

#1.) Carolina Panthers – Bryce Young, QB, Alabama 

- The most predictable selection in the draft.

#2.) Houston Texans – Will Anderson Jr., Edge, Alabama

- And now the most unpredictable selection in the whole draft. Pretty much everything the rest of the draft hinges on what Houston does here. They could very well take a QB like C.J. Stroud but the tide seems to have shifted to a defensive lineman. I had Tyree Wilson here for the longest time but ultimately felt Houston will go with the safer pick. If Anderson gets past Houston I will not be surprised if Detroit makes a move for him.

#3.) Tennessee Titans (projected trade with Arizona) – C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State

- All the scuttlebutt is Arizona wants to trade down, and plenty of prognosticators seem to think Tennessee if the most likely to trade up for their QB of the future. I agree. I think Tennessee gives up picks 11, 41, and a future 1st at a minimum to jump up and get Stroud. If Arizona doesn't trade down, I think Arizona goes with Ohio State OT Paris Johnson instead of Tyree Wilson.

#4.) Indianapolis Colts – Will Levis, QB, Kentucky

- There's so much smoke connecting Levis to Indianapolis that I'll be genuinely surprised if it doesn't happen. The only way I see it not happening is if Stroud is still on the board. But at this point in this mock he's not.

#5.) Seattle Seahawks – Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida

- There are a lot of people who think this is Georgia DT Jalen Carter's landing spot, but after thinking about it a lot I just couldn't get over Seattle opting for the high-ceiling QB to develop behind Geno Smith. It's a risk, yes. But drafting Carter would be, too.

#6.) Philadelphia Eagles (projected trade with Detroit) – Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia

- My biggest swing in this mock but I think it makes all the sense in the world. The Lions have had ample opportunity to talk positively about Carter as if they were planning to take him, and they just haven't done that. Everybody and their mother are mocking Illinois CB Devon Witherspoon to Detroit, but with Carter on the board I'm buying into the belief that Philadelphia wants to move up for the disruptive defensive lineman. Detroit moves down, picks up some extra assets, and can still grab a great player at 10.

#7.) Las Vegas Raiders – Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon

#8.) Atlanta Falcons – Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech

- A lot of people are connecting Atlanta to Texas RB Bijan Robinson, but with Tyler Allgeier already in the fold I feel like drafting Robinson here feels...incorrect. I'm sure I'll be wrong. But in this mock Wilson is available I think this is probably his floor.

#9.) Chicago Bears – Paris Johnson, OT, Ohio State

- Had Carter or Wilson fallen this far I would've pegged one of them to Chicago. As is I think they take the top offensive tackle in the draft to better protect Justin Fields. (And the Cardinals weep...)

#10.) Detroit Lions (projected trade with Philadelphia – Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois

- Detroit trades down and still manages to get their guy. I thought about it for quite a while and I think unless Detroit actually trades up for someone like Will Anderson Jr., there isn't a player worth taking at 6 that the Lions couldn't probably get a little later while still picking up extra assets. Biggest wrench in this potentially happening is if Las Vegas takes Witherspoon instead of Gonzalez, but in that case I would have Detroit taking Gonzalez instead.

#11.) Arizona Cardinals (projected trade with Tennessee) – Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia

- Reportedly Cardinals QB Kyler Murray has been telling the team he wants them to draft an offensive lineman, ideally Paris Johnson. Johnson isn't available at this point, but Jones would be a nice consolation prize.

#12.) Houston Texans – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State

#13.) Green Bay Packers – Peter Skoronski

- I've seen a number of mock drafters connecting Green Bay to a tight end but I just don't see it. If Green Bay wasn't going to draft an offensive weapon in the first round when they had Aaron Rodgers, I don't see them doing it without Rodgers. I can and do see them bolstering their aging offensive line. I could also see a defensive lineman here like Lukas Van Ness.

#14.) Detroit Lions (projected trade with New England) – Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

- Surprised? Me too, a little bit. But as I kept looking at this mock as I was compiling it I couldn't shake the feeling that Brad Holmes tends to target guys he wants, isn't afraid to trade up to get them, and has been pretty vocal about how he doesn't agree with the common belief that drafting running backs in the first round isn't a wise choice. Especially if they're able to trade down from 6, Detroit will have extra ammo to trade up at some point and get the guy they want. And I think Robinson is that guy.

#15.) New York Jets – Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee

- If Jaxon Smith-Njigba is still on the board I could also see him being the pick here.

#16.) Washington Commanders – Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Texas A&M

- Washington is linked heavily to taking a cornerback. Here's my guess as to which one they select.

#17.) Pittsburgh Steelers – Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland

- If Darnell Wright were still on the board I think he's the pick.

#18.) New England Patriots (projected trade with Detroit) – Lukas Van Ness, Edge, Iowa

- Had I not predicted a trade between Detroit and New England, Van Ness would've been my selection for the Patriots regardless. In this case, Bill Belichick does his thing by trading down and getting extra assets while still getting the guy he wants.

#19.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma

- If Bijan Robinson were still on the board, he'd be the pick here.

#20.) Seattle Seahawks – Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College

- Tyler Lockett 2.0

#21.) Los Angeles Chargers – Myles Murphy, Edge, Clemson

#22.) Baltimore Ravens – Joey Porter, Jr., CB, Penn State

- Heresy to see the son of a Steelers legend wind up on their most hated rival, but it makes too much sense at this point.

#23.) Minnesota Vikings – Jordan Addison, WR, USC

- Adam Thielen is gone, so the Vikings have both a short and long-term need at WR. Wouldn't be surprised to see this be the spot Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker goes if he gets drafted in the first round at all.

#24.) Jacksonville Jaguars - Brian Branch, DB, Alabama

#25.) New York Giants – Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame

- New York steals Mayer one pick before their rivals can get him.

#26.) Dallas Cowboys – Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah

#27.) Buffalo Bills – Quentin Johnston

- Bills are being linked by a lot of folks to a wide receiver and this is the one that makes the most sense to me.

#28.) Cincinnati Bengals – Calijah Kancey, DT, Pitt

- A little bit of a fall for Kancey but I think his measurables really will cause a number of teams to pass on him.

#29.) New Orleans Saints – Adetomiwa Adeboware, DT, Northwestern

- Just a gut feeling.

#30.) Philadelphia Eagles – Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama

- I don't believe Philly will have to include this pick in any trade up like I mocked earlier. Would be a bit of an overpay. So they stick here and take a replacement for Miles Sanders.

#31.) Kansas City Chiefs – Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan

There we have it. Going bold with my prediction that the Detroit Lions will not make their picks at 6 and 18 as they're currently slated to. Just a gut feeling I couldn't get past. I also would not be shocked if they trade up instead of down from pick #6, nor would I be shocked if they trade back into the back half of the first round thanks to their multiple second round picks they have in hand.

I am a little surprised I ultimately have Georgia's Nolan Smith falling out of the first round, but I just couldn't find a place for him that I felt more strongly about than the other picks. (Watch him go Top 10 now.)

Hope you've enjoyed the Mocking the Detroit Lions 2023 Draft series and this, the Keck Thoughts Official 2023 NFL Mock Draft. And enjoy the draft!

MOCKING THE DETROIT LIONS 2023 DRAFT - SCENARIO #3: TRADING UP FROM 6

Welcome back to the "Mocking the Detroit Lions 2023 Draft" series here on Keck Thoughts. With this year's draft less than a day away this will be our final scenario exercise. Last week in our fictional role as Detroit Lions GM we traded down from 6th overall to 11th while picking up some additional draft capital. Today we do the opposite and try a scenario where we see what Detroit could do if they were to trade up from the 6th overall pick to somewhere in the Top 5 picks of the first round.

As is standard now, below is the explanation for how I handle mock draft simulations in this series:

• I try to think along the lines of Lions GM Brad Holmes and Head Coach Dan Campbell...but ultimately I'll be making a lot of picks with what I think just makes sense given the circumstances.

• Due to the nature of mock draft simulators being an algorithm and subject to randomness, let's keep in mind that some players may fall in these simulations and be available to me when they probably won't be available for Detroit in real life. Each site also has their own rankings for the players in the draft, so there will be some variance in that alone. So if a guy like Darnell Washington somehow falls to me in the 3rd round, I won't be passing on him just because I think it's unrealistic for him to fall that far.

• Last week we utilized Pro Football Network's Mock Draft Simulator. I've decided for our third and final exercise to utilize a third different simulator and go with Pro Football Focus's mock draft simulator just for more variance, and since I've been referencing PFF's rankings in this series it will be more efficient for me to just use their system.

• In the past I've tried compiling a Draft Needs list to help us along the way, but after two years of Brad Holmes drafting for the Lions, we've learned that Holmes tends to draft on a best-player basis. Alternatively he often times targets a guy he wants and he goes and gets him, such as trading up for Jameson Williams last year. Holmes has even said they won't have a depth chart in the draft room with them, saying, "I just think you can make a lot of mistakes with that. I've been in regimes in the past that have had a depth chart in the draft room, and I've just never been a fan of that." So I will not be beholden to drafting for need if there is a clear best player available sitting in front of me during these exercises.

Same caveat as always: this exercise is for fun. I'm not worried about my accuracy being judged too harshly. 

This is more of a thought exercise to see who the Lions might have available to them and who they might draft in reality. In 2021 I did three different exercises, three different scenarios, and at various points in those exercises I had Detroit draft Amon-Ra St. Brown, Alim McNeil, and Levi Onwuzurike, all of whom Detroit actually did draft that April. That's the kind of thing I'm talking about here. 

If you just want to see the snapshot of the mock simulation, the results are listed below. After that (and after the jump) I've written out a more detailed summary of how the simulation unfolded and my thinking behind each pick. Enjoy!

DRAFT RESULTS:

MOCKING THE DETROIT LIONS 2023 DRAFT - SCENARIO #2: TRADING DOWN FROM 6

Welcome back to the "Mocking the Detroit Lions 2023 Draft" series here on Keck Thoughts. Earlier this week we kicked off the series by doing a mock draft simulation where in our fictional role as Detroit Lions GM we made no trades and made our first round picks at 6 and 18. Today we do our second scenario where we see what Detroit could be looking at if they were to trade down from the 6th overall pick to later in the first round.

As is standard now, below is the explanation for how I handle mock draft simulations in this series:

• I try to think along the lines of Lions GM Brad Holmes and Head Coach Dan Campbell...but ultimately I'll be making a lot of picks with what I think just makes sense given the circumstances.

• Due to the nature of mock draft simulators being an algorithm and subject to randomness, let's keep in mind that some players may fall in these simulations and be available to me when they probably won't be available for Detroit in real life. Each site also has their own rankings for the players in the draft, so there will be some variance in that alone. So if a guy like Darnell Washington somehow falls to me in the 3rd round, I won't be passing on him just because I think it's unrealistic for him to fall that far.

• As I mentioned in the previous entry, we used The Draft Network's Mock Draft Machine for our first scenario but it was too buggy for my liking and crashed when I tried to save the results, so going forward we'll be utilizing Pro Football Network's Mock Draft Simulator.

• In the past I've tried compiling a Draft Needs list to help us along the way, but after two years of Brad Holmes drafting for the Lions, we've learned that Holmes tends to draft on a best-player basis. Alternatively he often times targets a guy he wants and he goes and gets him, such as trading up for Jameson Williams last year. Holmes has even said they won't have a depth chart in the draft room with them, saying, "I just think you can make a lot of mistakes with that. I've been in regimes in the past that have had a depth chart in the draft room, and I've just never been a fan of that." So I will not be beholden to drafting for need if there is a clear best player available sitting in front of me during these exercises.

Same caveat as always: this exercise is for fun. I'm not worried about my accuracy being judged too harshly. 

This is more of a thought exercise to see who the Lions might have available to them and who they might draft in reality. In 2021 I did three different exercises, three different scenarios, and at various points in those exercises I had Detroit draft Amon-Ra St. Brown, Alim McNeil, and Levi Onwuzurike, all of whom Detroit actually did draft that April. That's the kind of thing I'm talking about here. 

If you just want to see the snapshot of the mock simulation, the results are listed below. After that (and after the jump) I've written out a more detailed summary of how the simulation unfolded and my thinking behind each pick. Enjoy!

DRAFT RESULTS:

MOCKING THE DETROIT LIONS 2023 DRAFT - SCENARIO #1: DRAFTING 6TH OVERALL

Welcome back to another NFL Draft season here at Keck Thoughts. I did a mock draft simulation just prior to the NFL Combine in February and had originally planned on doing a second. I had it all written up and everything, but real life got in the way and I never got a chance to edit and post it. C'est la vie. 

Now we are just shy of two weeks from the 2023 NFL Draft, so I want to get back to doing mock draft exercises like I did two years ago where I did a number of different scenarios. Over the coming weeks I'll do a variety scenarios such as what it might look like if the Detroit Lions were to trade up from the 6th overall pick, what it might look like if they traded down from the 6th pick, and what it might look like if they trade up from the 18th pick. But to get started today we'll see what it might look like if the Lions stay put and select a player with the 6th overall pick.

As usual, some explanation for how I typically handle mock draft simulations for these posts:

• I try to think along the lines of Lions GM Brad Holmes and Head Coach Dan Campbell...but ultimately I'll be making a lot of picks with what I think just makes sense given the circumstances.

• Due to the nature of mock draft simulators being an algorithm and subject to randomness, let's keep in mind that some players may fall in these simulations and be available to me when they probably won't be available for Detroit in real life. Each site also has their own rankings for the players in the draft, so there will be some variance in that alone. So if a guy like Darnell Washington somehow falls to me in the 3rd round, I won't be passing on him just because I think it's unrealistic for him to fall that far.

• We'll be utilizing The Draft Network's Mock Draft Machine for this exercise, but going forward I'll likely switch to Pro Football Network's as TDN's site has been very buggy and crashed when I tried saving my mock draft results.

• In the past I've tried compiling a Draft Needs list to help us along the way, but after two years of Brad Holmes drafting for the Lions, we've learned that Holmes tends to draft on a best-player basis. Alternatively he often times targets a guy he wants and he goes and gets him, such as trading up for Jameson Williams last year. Holmes has even said they won't have a depth chart in the draft room with them, saying, "I just think you can make a lot of mistakes with that. I've been in regimes in the past that have had a depth chart in the draft room, and I've just never been a fan of that." So I will not be beholden to drafting for need if there is a clear best player available sitting in front of me during these exercises.

As always, this exercise is for fun. I'm not worried about my accuracy being judged too harshly. 

This is more of a thought exercise to see who the Lions might have available to them and who they might draft in reality. In 2021 I did three different exercises, three different scenarios, and at various points in those exercises I had Detroit draft Amon-Ra St. Brown, Alim McNeil, and Levi Onwuzurike, all of whom Detroit actually did draft that April. That's the kind of thing I'm talking about here. 

Sorry for the lengthy intro! If you just want to see the snapshot of the mock simulation, the results are listed below. After that (and after the jump) I've written out a more detailed summary of how the simulation unfolded and my thinking behind each pick. Enjoy!

DRAFT RESULTS:

Round 1 (Pick #6): Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois

Round 1 (Pick #18): Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

Round 2 (Pick #48): Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia

Round 2 (Pick #55): Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee

Round 3 (Pick #81): Steve Avila, OL, TCU

Round 5 (Pick #152): Jayden Reed, WR, Michigan State

Round 5 (Pick #159): YaYa Diaby, EDGE, Louisville

Round 6 (Pick #183): Moro Ojomo, DT, Texas

Round 6 (Pick #194): Karl Brooks, DT, Bowling Green

Mocking the Detroit Lions 2023 Draft: Pre-Combine Edition #1

Welcome back to another NFL Draft season here at Keck Thoughts. We're getting the ball rolling earlier than usual because frankly I felt the need to do some writing. I've been toying around with mock draft simulations for weeks now whenever I have some downtime largely to get myself acquainted with this year's draft class, but now that the NFL Combine is happening in Indianapolis this week, I felt the need to start really figuring out what the Detroit Lions could do come April.

As usual, some explanation for how I typically handle mock draft simulations for these posts:

Some ground rules for how I performed today's mock draft simulation: 

• I try to think along the lines of Lions GM Brad Holmes and Head Coach Dan Campbell...but ultimately I'll be making a lot of picks with what I think just makes sense given the circumstances.

• Due to the nature of mock draft simulators being an algorithm and subject to randomness, let's keep in mind that some players may fall in these simulations and be available to me when they probably won't be available for Detroit in real life. Each site also has their own rankings for the players in the draft, so there will be some variance in that alone. In this particular exercise I used Pro Football Focus' simulator and, because I'll be doing another one of these posts soon, this first exercise I manually adjusted the settings so the player rankings/board were based entirely off of PFF's Users and not PFF's own rankings. That will be my next post.

• As part of the exercise I will be doing my best to address the needs of the Detroit Lions' roster. Typically I go through and compile a list of Team Needs, but this particular simulation took longer than I expected it to so I didn't get a chance to make a Team Needs list yet. I will at some point in the future.  My apologies. 

And as I always mention, this is more of a thought exercise to see who the Lions might have available to them and who they might draft in reality. Two years I did three different exercises, three different scenarios, and at various points in those exercises I had Detroit draft Levi Onwuzurike, Alim McNeil, and Amon-Ra St. Brown, all of whom Detroit actually did draft that year. That's the kind of thing I'm talking about here. 

With that lengthy intro out of the way, let's move on to the lengthy body of the post!

DETROIT LIONS MOCK DRAFT SCENARIO: Pro Football Focus User Rankings Version

This year the Detroit lions don't have a Top 3 pick, so there's a short wait until we make our first pick. In that time the first 5 picks go in a fairly predictable fashion. In this scenario Chicago sticks at #1 and drafts Jalen Carter while in reality it's likely they'll trade down a bit and someone else will take a QB with the 1st pick.

1 – CHI – JALEN CARTER, DT, Georgia
2 – HOU – BRYCE YOUNG, QB, Alabama
3 – ARIZ – WILL ANDERSON JR., DE, Alabama
4 – INDY – CJ STROUD, QB, Ohio State
5 – SEA – TYREE WILSON, DE, Texas Tech

For Detroit's pick this leaves a "best available" board of Kentucky QB Will Levis, Illinois CB Devon Witherspoon (PFF’s top-rated CB), TCU WR Quentin Johnston, Alabama DB Brian Branch, Oregon CB Christian Gonzalez, Florida QB Anthony Richardson, Iowa DE Lukas Van Ness, Ohio State OT Paris Johnson Jr., Pitt DT Calijah Kancey, Northwestern OT Peter Skoronski, and Clemson DT Bryan Bresee. 

Aside from maybe Levis there’s an argument any single one of those players would be a good pick for the Lions. Because of this I think it might be wise for Detroit to look into trading down a few spots and picking up more draft ammo. Thankfully the Carolina Panthers are calling, looking to trade up from the 9^th pick. To drop 3 spots I ask for Carolina’s 39^th overall pick. But before we go further, let’s take a look at the draft pick trade value charts.

According to Jimmy Johnson’s trade value chart, Detroit’s #6 pick is worth 1600 points, Carolina’s #9 is worth 1350, and Carolina’s #39 is 510 points. That’s a clear win for Detroit and a bit of an overpay for Carolina (1900 points to 1600 points), but if the Panthers are looking to trade up for their QB of the future, it’s not uncommon for them to pay a little extra.

According to the Rich Hill trade value chart, Detroit’s #6 pick is worth 446 points, Carolina’s #9 is 387 points, and Carolina’s #39 is 153. Again a bit of an overpay, but same deal as above.

In our simulation we’re running Carolina does accept our trade terms and we swap picks. The Panthers indeed jump up and draft a QB in Will Levis. Oakland follows by taking Florida QB Anthony Richardson, then Atlanta drafts Ohio St OT Paris Johnson Jr., leaving us with our pick of the best cornerbacks in the draft.

6 – CAR (TRADE) – WILL LEVIS, QB, Kentucky
7 – OAK – ANTHONY RICHARDSON, QB, Florida
8 – ATL – PARIS JOHNSON JR., OT, Ohio State

At this point for Detroit I think it comes down to two guys – Devon Witherspoon and Christian Gonzalez. Witherspoon is smaller than Gonzalez but seems to play a better all-around game with his play recognition and tackling. Gonzalez is bigger and faster. Both guys are strong playing man-to-man coverage, which is a pillar of Aaron Glenn’s defense. So Detroit really can’t go wrong with either, but I’m leaning Witherspoon because he just screams “I’m a Dan Campbell player” to me.

Round 1, Pick 9 (TRADE): DET – DEVON WITHERSPOON, CB, Illinois

Eight players get taken off the board between Detroit’s two 1st round picks:

The Official Keck Thoughts 2022 Mock NFL Draft

It's Draft Day. Follow Sonny Weaver Jr.'s lead and do what's best for the team.

It's time for the Official Keck Thoughts 2022 Mock Draft! As always these are my predictions for where I think teams will pick players. Unlike last year, I'm not going to project any trades in this year's mock. This year's draft is already incredibly unpredictable that projecting any trades will just cause even more of a headache. That said, as a Lions fan, I will note that I think they try to trade up for someone, but we'll get to that later.

In 2020 I correctly guessed 10 players to the team that drafted them. Last year that fell down to a measly 7. Not so hot. Let's see if I can do better this year. 

KECK THOUGHTS 2021 NFL MOCK DRAFT

#1.) Jacksonville Jaguars – Travon Walker, Edge, Georgia

- I'm buying the hype that Jacksonville GM Trent Baalke loves Walker's measurables and potential, but there is a part of me that is expecting a surprise pick of Kayvon Thibodeaux.

#2.) Detroit Lions – Aidan Hutchinson, Edge, Michigan

- This one I've gone back and forth on all day because it seems like the local Lions beat writers are split on who Brad Holmes and Co. draft. The Athletic's Chris Burke & Nick Baumgardner and Detroit News' Justin Rogers predicted Detroit taking Kayvon Thibodeaux, while the Detroit Free Press's Dave Birkett and MLive's Kyle Meinke predict Hutchinson. My gut is telling me Thibodeaux but I'm going to follow my head and say the consensus in Allen Park is Hutchinson.

#3.) Houston Texans – Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State

- Another tough pick as there's a lot of belief Houston could take Derek Stingley Jr. here, but I think they're more likely to try to trade back into the Top 10 to get Stingley later.

#4.) New York Jets – Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, CB, Cincinnati

- If Thibodeaux doesn't go to the Lions, I could see him landing with the Jets here.

#5.) New York Giants – Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State

- New York is heavily linked to drafting a tackle. I'm guessing it's Cross.

#6.) Carolina Panthers – Evan Neal, OT, Alabama

#7.) New York Giants – Kayvon Thibodeaux, Edge, Oregon

- There's been chatter in the media that the Giants were rubbed the wrong way by Thibodeaux in meetings, but I think that's a smokescreen, hoping he'd fall to them.

#8.) Atlanta Falcons – Drake London, WR, USC

- Last year the Lions had the worst WR corps in the NFL, now the Falcons hold that distinction. They badly need to draft a WR, so I'm predicting they take the guy who can best go up and get the ball. Wouldn't shock me if Jermaine Johnson or Thibodeaux winds up here either.

#9.) Seattle Seahawks – Jermaine Johnson, Edge, Florida State

- Sounds like Seattle could be a landing spot for Thibodeaux or Stingley, too. This could also be the spot where Houston trades up to take Stingley.

#10.) New York Jets – Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama

- The Jets were in on the bidding for Tyreek Hill. After missing out on him, they can take a player a lot like Hill and for a fraction of the price.

#11.) Washington Commanders – Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State

#12.) Minnesota Vikings – Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame

- I think Hamilton is going to be a very good NFL player for a long time, so if he lands in Minnesota I won't be happy. But it makes too much sense not to happen.

#13.) Houston Texans – Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU

- I have Houston getting their guy by just sitting still, a lesson Texans GM Nick Caserio can take from his long-time mentor Bill Belichick, who stayed at pick 15 last year and still got the QB he needed.

#14.) Baltimore Ravens – Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia

- Seems like this is the pick most often mocked to Baltimore, so let's ride with it.

#15.) Philadelphia Eagles – Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State

- The Eagles need a few things, and wide receiver is one of them.

#16.) New Orleans Saints – Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa

- This is higher than I think Penning should go, but New Orleans needs to replace Terron Armstead. I could see Central Michigan's Bernhard Raimann being the pick here, too.

#17.) Los Angeles Chargers – Zion Johnson, OT, Boston College

- I have genuinely no idea what the Chargers are going to do.

#18.) Philadelphia Eagles – George Karlaftis, Edge, Purdue

#19.) New Orleans Saints – Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt

- I don't think the Saints absolutely need to take a QB in this draft, but the fit would be pretty good between them and Pickett.

#20.) Pittsburgh Steelers – Malik Willis, QB, Liberty

- Another pick that lots of people are predicting based on Mike Tomlin's apparent interest in Willis.

#21.) New England Patriots – Quay Walker, LB, Georgia

- In a little bit of a surprise I think Belichick takes Walker over Utah's Devin Lloyd. 

#22.) Green Bay Packers – Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas

- Green Bay needs help at WR after losing Davante Adams and Marques Valdez-Scandling this offseason, but it's also well-known they don't take receivers in the first round. I think they will this year, and I don't think they can wait.

#23.) Arizona Cardinals – Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State

#24.) Dallas Cowboys – Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah

- Dallas is often mocked an offensive lineman, but I think if Lloyd falls this far they can't not pair him with Micah Parsons.

#25.) Buffalo Bills – Breece Hall, RB, Iowa State

- Another oft-mocked pick, which I don't understand, but sure let's go with it.

#26.) Tennessee Titans – Kenyon Green, OG, Texas A&M

#27.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia

- I think Tampa Bay could very well take a safety or corner with this pick, but Wyatt fills a need especially if Ndamukong Suh doesn't return.

#28.) Green Bay Packers – Daxton Hill, DB, Michigan

#29.) Kansas City Chiefs – Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington

- I don't think Kansas City uses either of these two first round picks; I think bundle them to trade up to get a wide receiver. But since I'm not projecting trades, let's give them McDuffie.

#30.) Kansas City Chiefs – Boye Mafe, Edge, Minnesota

#31.) Cincinnati Bengals – Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa

- Cincinnati is a question mark to me, but even after addressing their porous offensive line in free agency they can still add a Day One starter like Linderbaum to it.

#32.) Detroit Lions – Lewis Cine, S, Georgia

- This pick is an even bigger question mark than what Detroit will do at #2. Does Detroit take a QB, especially if Pickett or Willis falls here like I've seen them do in some notable mock drafts? Do the Lions take Georgia's Nakobe Dean? A wide receiver? All I know is in this mock Cine is still available and he's the best marriage of need and talent.

All that said about Detroit's 32nd overall pick, as touched on earlier, if I was projecting trades I think Detroit tries to bundle pick 32 with next year's 1st they got from Los Angeles in the Matthew Stafford trade, and try to trade up for a quarterback or a wide receiver. My best guess would be they try to trade up for Malik Willis. So for funsies, my bold prediction is that Detroit trades pick 32 and next year's 1st from the Rams to the New Orleans Saints for pick 19 so they can steal Malik Willis away from Pittsburgh.

MOCKING THE DETROIT LIONS 2022 DRAFT

As the old saying goes, better late than never!

For two years now in the lead-up to the annual NFL Draft I have written some blog posts where I do a mock draft simulation exercise to see what scenarios the Detroit Lions could possibly see as the draft unfolds.

Typically I perform multiple versions of these exercises, but this year due to my busy work and life schedule, I was only to do a single simulation. Like last year I opted to utilize The Draft Network's mock draft simulator.

What I'm attempting to do is play out scenarios (or in this year's case, a scenario) for the Lions, pretend like I'm Lions General Manager Brad Holmes, and draft players that fill out both Detroit's short and long-term needs.

In addition to today's "Mocking the Draft" exercise, I will also be posting The Official 2022 Keck Thoughts Mock Draft in a separate post.

I think it's worth reinforcing that the mock draft I'm posting separately is what I think will happen, not what I want to happen or would do if I were GM.

Some ground rules for how I performed today's mock draft simulation: 

- Once again I tried to think along the lines of Lions GM Brad Holmes and Head Coach Dan Campbell...but ultimately I'll be making a lot of picks with what I think just makes sense given the circumstances.

- Due to the nature of these mock draft simulators being an algorithm and subject to randomness, let's keep in mind that some players may fall in these simulations and be available to me when they probably won't be available for Detroit in real life. Each site also has their own rankings for the players in the draft, so there will be some variance in that alone. So if a guy like Quay Walker somehow falls to me in the 3rd round, I won't be passing on him just because I think it's unrealistic for him to fall that far.

- As part of the exercise I will be doing my best to address the needs of the Detroit Lions' roster. After consulting multiple websites to see what they believe Detroit's needs are, I compiled a list and tweaked it a smidge with my own thoughts on what their needs are to give myself a final "Team Needs" list that I'll do my best to address. Positions have been listed in order of most-needed to least-need, and that list of Team Needs will be listed with each scenario as a refresher and so we can see how well (or how poorly) I did in addressing those needs. Once again let's be honest: the Lions need help almost everywhere after going 3-13-1 last season. Offensive line is maybe the one area they don't need an immediate injection of talent.

I think we all know that mock drafts are typically fruitless endeavors and usually land somewhere between being 10% to 20% correct since there are just so many variables and random things that can happen in a draft. But as I said, this is for fun. So I'm not worried about my accuracy being judged too harshly.

As mentioned before, this is more of a thought exercise to see who the Lions might have available to them and who they might draft in reality. Last year I did three different exercises, three different scenarios, and at various points in those exercises I had Detroit draft Levi Onwuzurike, Alim McNeil, and Amon-Ra St. Brown, all of whom Detroit actually did draft last April. That's the kind of thing I'm talking about here.

Ok! Now that THAT long introduction is done, let's get to the mocking!

DETROIT LIONS MOCK DRAFT SCENARIO: Sticking at #2

Team Needs: S, DE, LB, WR, CB, DT, QB, TE, RB, OL

Draft Results:

With the 1st overall pick, the Jacksonville Jaguars selected Georgia edge Travon Walker, leaving me with a decision to make between Aidan Hutchinson and Kayvon Thibodeaux, or possibly trading down.

The New York Giants did call offering the 5th overall pick, their 2nd round pick (36th overall), and two 3rd rounders (67th and 81st overall) – a fair trade, with slightly more value coming to Detroit, but in this mock I’m staying put at #2. (In reality that's absolutely a trade Detroit should be making though, for obvious reasons).

Reading the tea leaves, it seems like Allen Park might be split between Hutchinson and Thibodeaux. Some in the media think Brad Holmes wants Thibodeaux, especially after spending significant resources on scouting him; while most others think Hutchinson is the top-rated player in the draft and Detroit should jump on him. 

I’m of the mind that Hutchinson is the best player in the draft, with the higher floor than any other edge rusher in the draft. So even though I can absolutely see Detroit opting for the potentially higher ceiling of Thibodeaux, I’m playing it safe with the #2 pick and taking the hometown boy, who should be a perfect culture fit with what Holmes and Campbell are building in Motown.

Round 1 (Pick #2): Aidan Hutchinson, Edge, Michigan

 

For the 32nd pick, I get a couple of trade offers. Jacksonville oddly calls me offering their 3rd round pick (65th overall), their 7th round pick (235th overall), and their 2022 3rd round pick, which falls well short of equaling value on the draft pick trade value chart. Pittsburgh calls offering a 2nd round pick (52nd overall), a 4th round pick (138st overall), a 6th (208th overall), and a 7th (225th overall) which is even less value than Jacksonville’s offer, but had me considering it for a hot second because I wouldn’t mind picking up a 4th round pick to make up for the one Detroit gave up last year when they traded up to draft Derrick Barnes. Ultimately though neither offer is enough value, so I’m staying put. 

Looking at available options we have a hard decision to make. Three of the top quarterbacks in the class are still available in Pitt's Kenny Pickett, Cincinnati's Desmond Ridder, and North Carolina's Sam Howell. All three have been mocked to the Lions in mock drafts I’ve read the past few months. I find it unlikely Pickett would still be available at 32, but Ridder and Howell I easily see. I do love me some Desmond Ridder, and I’m a proponent of drafting a QB with the 32nd pick to lock in that 5th year of team control for first-round picks.

There was a HUGE run on wide receivers in this simulation's 1st round which all but takes a WR off the table for us at this pick. Ohio State’s Garrett Wilson, USC’s Drake London, Alabama’s Jameson Williams, Ohio State’s Chris Olave, Arkansas’s Treylon Burks, Penn State’s Jahan Dotson, and Western Michigan’s Skyy Moore all got drafted between picks 8 and 29. That does leave George Pickens and Christian Watson, two WRs I very much like, on the board, but WR isn't as big a need as some other positions after the emergence of Amon-Ra St. Brown, the trade for Josh Reynolds, and the free agent signing of DJ Chark. 

Detroit also badly needs reinforcement on the defensive side of the ball and there are some appealing options available including Utah linebacker Devin Lloyd, Georgia linebacker Nakobe Dean, Georgia linebacker Quay Walker, Georgia safety Lewis Cine, Penn State safety Jaquan Brisker, and Michigan edge David Ojabo (who’s recovering from a torn Achilles and likely will be out the entire 2022 season). 

Lloyd and Dean have some injury concerns, plus Dean is small for a LB even though he’s awesome. Walker has been shooting up mock draft boards lately and has been connected to Detroit sometimes. Lions LB coach Kelvin Sheppard even ran drills at Georgia’s Pro Day so he was working very closely with Dean and Walker that day. Cine and Brisker would fill a huge hole at the other starting safety position next to Tracy Walker, and Ojabo could be a great value play. 

Ultimately I look at the options I’ll still have on the board when I pick again in two picks and decide to lock in that extra year of team control for a quarterback who could be Jared Goff’s apprentice in 2022 or possibly even overtake him during the season: Kenny Pickett. Pickett visited Allen Park for one of Detroit’s "Top 30" visits, they would have had a day during Senior Bowl week to coach him when the Jets and Lions’ staffs swapped players for a day, and he’s the most pro ready QB in the draft. I’ll reiterate that I don’t think Pickett falls to 32, but Detroit’s done their due diligence in case he does. QB also isn't the biggest need the Lions have, but I don't believe Goff is the long-term answer for Detroit even if Holmes and Campbell think the world of him. So Pickett is the pick.

Round 1 (Pick #32): Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt

For the 34th pick I got more trade calls. Philly called offering a 2nd (51st overall), a 4th (124th overall), and a 7th (237th) which was very shy of true value for pick 34 (though again I liked that 4^th round pick). New England called offering a 2nd (54th overall) and a 3rd (85th overall) which was closer to full value but was still somewhat shy. I opt to stay at 34.

Jacksonville took Devin Lloyd at 33 which is a bit of a bummer because he would’ve been my pick if he made it one more spot, but I still have Dean, Cine, Walker, Ojabo, and Brisker available as well as some WR options like Pickens and Watson. For the value and to fill the team need, I’m going with Lewis Cine to shore up that secondary. Not only was Cine highly productive and is a natural fit for the defense Aaron Glenn runs, his athleticism is off the charts. For those familiar with Kent Lee Platte's "Relative Athletic Score", Cine scored a 9.92 RAS (out of a possible 10), which ranked as the 8th-best for a free safety since 1987.

Round 2 (Pick #34): Lewis Cine, S, Georgia

Lots of very good players went off the board between picks 34 and 66, including Pickens and Watson, but plenty of good options are still there. Best available players facing us at pick 66 include Wyoming linebacker Chad Muma, Colorado State tight end Trey McBride, Wisconsin linebacker Leo Chanel, Oklahoma linebacker Brian Asomoah, Kentucky guard Darian Kinnard, and Memphis wide receiver Calvin Austin. For me this is an easy pick, which is Chad Muma. He fits a big need as a stack linebacker and he’s another strong athlete, scoring a 9.77 RAS (56th-best out of 2419 linebackers since 1987). If Muma hadn’t been available I probably would’ve opted for Chanel to hit that LB spot, who’s probably even better than Muma at run defense and blitzing, but isn’t as strong in pass coverage.

Round 3 (Pick #66): Chad Muma, LB, Wyoming

A bit of a run on WR happened not long before our pick here at 97, with Memphis’ Calvin Austin III going at 86, Boise State’s Khalil Shakur going at 87, Kentucky’s Wen’Dale Robinson going at 88, and Cincinnati’s Alec Pierce going at 89. That’s fine with me, as a WR that has been linked to Detroit decently often by Lions beat writers is still available: South Alabama’s Jalen Tolbert. Tolbert was on the Lions’ Senior Bowl squad, so the staff is already familiar with him. By all accounts he had a strong week of practice in Mobile, he’d fit a need for the Lions as a possible X receiver, and he’s a good athlete having scored an 8.62 RAS (386th-best out of 2785 WR since 1987). 

Round 3 (Pick #97): Jalen Tolbert, WR, South Alabama

 

And now…we wait. It’s a long stretch of 80 picks between Lions’ selections as it currently stands, which is why it would behoove Detroit to make a trade and grab any kind of 4^th round pick sometime this weekend. When it’s our turn on the clock again, the best players on the board are: Michigan running back Hassan Haskins, Cincinnati running back Jerome Ford, Sam Houston State cornerback Zyon McCollum, Oregon safety Verone McKinley III, and BYU running back Tyler Allgeier. Allgeier is the one who catches my attention because on The Draft Network’s rankings he’s ranked as their 217th-best player, but The Athletic’s Dane Brugler (whom I think highly of) has Allgeier rated as his 4th-best RB. And while Allgeier scored a decent RAS of 7.4, Kent Lee Platte has repeatedly said Allgeier might be his favorite player in the draft. It’s good enough for me, especially in the 5th round.

Round 5 (Pick #177): Tyler Allgeier, RB, BYU

 

The wait between Detroit’s 5th and 6th selections in the draft is significantly shorter, as we’re up again at pick 181. A lot of the same names are still on the board, including Zyon McCollum, whom Brugler ranks as his 14th-best cornerback and projects as a 3rd or 4th-round pick. That’s a value pick for us late in the 5th round.

Round 5 (Pick #181): Zyon McCollum, CB, Sam Houston State

Detroit’s final selection of the 2022 Draft is pick 217, as they gave up their 7th round pick in the trade with Denver last season for Trinity Benson. Lots of directions we could go here, and I’m going to take a path I’ve seen favored by local beat writers and some fans by drafting Michigan State fullback/tight end Connor Heyward. Heyward was a long-time starter for the Spartans, so he has the local tie which is nice. More importantly he fills a need for Detroit as a tight end who can catch passes but also block. Like Jalen Tolbert, Heyward was on the Lions’ Senior Bowl squad and it seemingly was a good fit between player and coaching staff. I think he’d be a perfect culture fit for the Lions but also fit the aforementioned need. Easy pick to make.

Round 6 (Pick #1217): Connor Heyward, FB/TE, Michigan State

OVERVIEW

Overall I think this is a very solid draft class for the Lions. They get the consensus top-rated player in the draft at a major position of need with Hutchinson, they get one of the top quarterbacks in the class as a possible long-term solution at the most important position in the game, and they get multiple Day One contributors in Cine and Muma. Tolbert can be brought along at his own speed as a rookie, and Allgeier, McCollum, and Heyward can contribute as special teamers and depth.

It's not super sexy, but provided players stay healthy, this would be another very strong draft class that could help Detroit's rebuild.

I hope you enjoyed this exercise, as I enjoyed going through it and writing up this post. You can see my post with my Official Keck Thoughts Mock Draft on its own post, and we'll see how it all shakes out in what is sure to be one of the more unpredictable NFL Drafts in some time. Thanks for reading!