As the old saying goes, better late than never!
For two years now in the lead-up to the annual NFL Draft I have written some blog posts where I do a mock draft simulation exercise to see what scenarios the Detroit Lions could possibly see as the draft unfolds.
In addition to today's "Mocking the Draft" exercise, I will also be posting The Official 2022 Keck Thoughts Mock Draft in a separate post.
I think it's worth reinforcing that the mock draft I'm posting separately is what I think will happen, not what I want to happen or would do if I were GM.
Some ground rules for how I performed today's mock draft simulation:
- Once again I tried to think along the lines of Lions GM Brad Holmes and Head Coach Dan Campbell...but ultimately I'll be making a lot of picks with what I think just makes sense given the circumstances.
- Due to the nature of these mock draft simulators being an algorithm and subject to randomness, let's keep in mind that some players may fall in these simulations and be available to me when they probably won't be available for Detroit in real life. Each site also has their own rankings for the players in the draft, so there will be some variance in that alone. So if a guy like Quay Walker somehow falls to me in the 3rd round, I won't be passing on him just because I think it's unrealistic for him to fall that far.
- As part of the exercise I will be doing my best to address the needs of the Detroit Lions' roster. After consulting multiple websites to see what they believe Detroit's needs are, I compiled a list and tweaked it a smidge with my own thoughts on what their needs are to give myself a final "Team Needs" list that I'll do my best to address. Positions have been listed in order of most-needed to least-need, and that list of Team Needs will be listed with each scenario as a refresher and so we can see how well (or how poorly) I did in addressing those needs. Once again let's be honest: the Lions need help almost everywhere after going 3-13-1 last season. Offensive line is maybe the one area they don't need an immediate injection of talent.
I think we all know that mock drafts are typically fruitless endeavors and usually land somewhere between being 10% to 20% correct since there are just so many variables and random things that can happen in a draft. But as I said, this is for fun. So I'm not worried about my accuracy being judged too harshly.
As mentioned before, this is more of a thought exercise to see who the Lions might have available to them and who they might draft in reality. Last year I did three different exercises, three different scenarios, and at various points in those exercises I had Detroit draft Levi Onwuzurike, Alim McNeil, and Amon-Ra St. Brown, all of whom Detroit actually did draft last April. That's the kind of thing I'm talking about here.
Ok! Now that THAT long introduction is done, let's get to the mocking!
DETROIT LIONS MOCK DRAFT SCENARIO: Sticking at #2
Team Needs: S, DE, LB, WR, CB, DT, QB, TE, RB, OL
Draft Results:
With the 1st overall pick, the Jacksonville Jaguars selected Georgia edge Travon Walker, leaving me with a decision to make between Aidan Hutchinson and Kayvon Thibodeaux, or possibly trading down.
The New York Giants did call offering the 5th overall pick, their 2nd round pick (36th overall), and two 3rd rounders (67th and 81st overall) – a fair trade, with slightly more value coming to Detroit, but in this mock I’m staying put at #2. (In reality that's absolutely a trade Detroit should be making though, for obvious reasons).
Reading the tea leaves, it seems like Allen Park might be split between Hutchinson and Thibodeaux. Some in the media think Brad Holmes wants Thibodeaux, especially after spending significant resources on scouting him; while most others think Hutchinson is the top-rated player in the draft and Detroit should jump on him.
I’m of the
mind that Hutchinson is the best player in the draft, with the higher floor than
any other edge rusher in the draft. So even though I can absolutely see Detroit
opting for the potentially higher ceiling of Thibodeaux, I’m playing it safe
with the #2 pick and taking the hometown boy, who should be a perfect culture fit with what Holmes and Campbell are building in Motown.
Round 1 (Pick #2): Aidan Hutchinson, Edge, Michigan
For the 32nd pick, I get a couple of trade offers. Jacksonville oddly calls me offering their 3rd round pick (65th overall), their 7th round pick (235th overall), and their 2022 3rd round pick, which falls well short of equaling value on the draft pick trade value chart. Pittsburgh calls offering a 2nd round pick (52nd overall), a 4th round pick (138st overall), a 6th (208th overall), and a 7th (225th overall) which is even less value than Jacksonville’s offer, but had me considering it for a hot second because I wouldn’t mind picking up a 4th round pick to make up for the one Detroit gave up last year when they traded up to draft Derrick Barnes. Ultimately though neither offer is enough value, so I’m staying put.
Looking at
available options we have a hard decision to make. Three of the top
quarterbacks in the class are still available in Pitt's Kenny Pickett, Cincinnati's Desmond Ridder,
and North Carolina's Sam Howell. All three have been mocked to the Lions in mock drafts I’ve
read the past few months. I find it unlikely Pickett would still be available at
32, but Ridder and Howell I easily see. I do love me some Desmond Ridder, and I’m
a proponent of drafting a QB with the 32nd pick to lock in that 5th year of team control for first-round picks.
There was a HUGE run on wide receivers in this simulation's 1st round which all but takes a WR off the table for us at this pick. Ohio State’s Garrett Wilson, USC’s Drake London, Alabama’s Jameson Williams, Ohio State’s Chris Olave, Arkansas’s Treylon Burks, Penn State’s Jahan Dotson, and Western Michigan’s Skyy Moore all got drafted between picks 8 and 29. That does leave George Pickens and Christian Watson, two WRs I very much like, on the board, but WR isn't as big a need as some other positions after the emergence of Amon-Ra St. Brown, the trade for Josh Reynolds, and the free agent signing of DJ Chark.
Detroit also badly needs reinforcement on the defensive side of the ball and there are some appealing options available including Utah linebacker Devin Lloyd, Georgia linebacker Nakobe Dean, Georgia linebacker Quay Walker, Georgia safety Lewis Cine, Penn State safety Jaquan Brisker, and Michigan edge David Ojabo (who’s recovering from a torn Achilles and likely will be out the entire 2022 season).
Lloyd and Dean have some injury concerns, plus Dean is small for a LB even though he’s awesome. Walker has been shooting up mock draft boards lately and has been connected to Detroit sometimes. Lions LB coach Kelvin Sheppard even ran drills at Georgia’s Pro Day so he was working very closely with Dean and Walker that day. Cine and Brisker would fill a huge hole at the other starting safety position next to Tracy Walker, and Ojabo could be a great value play.
Ultimately I
look at the options I’ll still have on the board when I pick again in two picks and
decide to lock in that extra year of team control for a quarterback
who could be Jared Goff’s apprentice in 2022 or possibly even overtake him
during the season: Kenny Pickett. Pickett visited Allen Park for one of Detroit’s "Top 30" visits, they would have had a day during Senior Bowl week to coach him
when the Jets and Lions’ staffs swapped players for a day, and he’s the most
pro ready QB in the draft. I’ll reiterate that I don’t think Pickett falls to
32, but Detroit’s done their due diligence in case he does. QB also isn't the biggest need the Lions have, but I don't believe Goff is the long-term answer for Detroit even if Holmes and Campbell think the world of him. So Pickett is the pick.
Round 1 (Pick #32): Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt
For the 34th pick I got more trade calls. Philly called offering a 2nd (51st overall), a 4th (124th overall), and a 7th (237th) which was very shy of true value for pick 34 (though again I liked that 4th round pick). New England called offering a 2nd (54th overall) and a 3rd (85th overall) which was closer to full value but was still somewhat shy. I opt to stay at 34.
Jacksonville
took Devin Lloyd at 33 which is a bit of a bummer because he would’ve been my
pick if he made it one more spot, but I still have Dean, Cine, Walker, Ojabo,
and Brisker available as well as some WR options like Pickens and Watson. For the value and to fill the team need, I’m going with Lewis Cine to shore up that secondary. Not
only was Cine highly productive and is a natural fit for the defense Aaron
Glenn runs, his athleticism is off the charts. For those familiar with Kent Lee Platte's "Relative Athletic Score", Cine scored a 9.92 RAS (out of a
possible 10), which ranked as the 8th-best for a free safety since 1987.
Round 2 (Pick #34): Lewis Cine, S, Georgia
Lots of very good
players went off the board between picks 34 and 66, including Pickens and
Watson, but plenty of good options are still there. Best available players
facing us at pick 66 include Wyoming linebacker Chad Muma, Colorado State tight
end Trey McBride, Wisconsin linebacker Leo Chanel, Oklahoma linebacker Brian
Asomoah, Kentucky guard Darian Kinnard, and Memphis wide receiver Calvin
Austin. For me this is an easy pick, which is Chad Muma. He fits a big need as
a stack linebacker and he’s another strong athlete, scoring a 9.77 RAS (56th-best out of 2419 linebackers since 1987). If Muma hadn’t been available I
probably would’ve opted for Chanel to hit that LB spot, who’s probably even
better than Muma at run defense and blitzing, but isn’t as strong in pass
coverage.
Round 3 (Pick #66): Chad Muma, LB,
Wyoming
A bit of a run on WR
happened not long before our pick here at 97, with Memphis’ Calvin Austin III going
at 86, Boise State’s Khalil Shakur going at 87, Kentucky’s Wen’Dale Robinson
going at 88, and Cincinnati’s Alec Pierce going at 89. That’s fine with me, as
a WR that has been linked to Detroit decently often by Lions beat writers is
still available: South Alabama’s Jalen Tolbert. Tolbert was on the Lions’
Senior Bowl squad, so the staff is already familiar with him. By all accounts
he had a strong week of practice in Mobile, he’d fit a need for the Lions as a
possible X receiver, and he’s a good athlete having scored an 8.62 RAS (386th-best out of 2785 WR since 1987).
Round 3 (Pick #97): Jalen Tolbert, WR, South
Alabama
And now…we wait. It’s
a long stretch of 80 picks between Lions’ selections as it currently stands, which is why it would behoove Detroit to make a trade and grab any kind of 4th
round pick sometime this weekend. When it’s our turn on the clock again, the
best players on the board are: Michigan running back Hassan Haskins, Cincinnati
running back Jerome Ford, Sam Houston State cornerback Zyon McCollum, Oregon
safety Verone McKinley III, and BYU running back Tyler Allgeier. Allgeier is
the one who catches my attention because on The Draft Network’s rankings he’s
ranked as their 217th-best player, but The Athletic’s Dane Brugler
(whom I think highly of) has Allgeier rated as his 4th-best RB. And while Allgeier scored a decent RAS of
7.4, Kent Lee Platte has repeatedly said Allgeier
might be his favorite player in the draft. It’s good enough for me, especially
in the 5th round.
Round 5 (Pick #177): Tyler Allgeier, RB, BYU
The wait between
Detroit’s 5th and 6th selections in the draft is
significantly shorter, as we’re up again at pick 181. A lot of the same names
are still on the board, including Zyon McCollum, whom Brugler ranks as his 14th-best
cornerback and projects as a 3rd or 4th-round pick. That’s
a value pick for us late in the 5th round.
Round 5 (Pick #181): Zyon McCollum, CB, Sam
Houston State
Round 6 (Pick #1217): Connor Heyward, FB/TE, Michigan
State
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