Hello readers,
As you may know, the last few years I typically write a series of blog posts running some mock draft simulations for the Detroit Lions, experimenting to see what players may or may not be available to them in various scenarios. I've always found it to be an educational exercise to learn about that year's draft class. It's usually one of my favorite things to do in the lead-up to the NFL Draft.
Regrettably, for the second year in a row I did not have the time to do any of those simulation posts, but I do have a little bit of time to knock out a mock draft. This year might be more unpredictable than last year (which I thought at the time would be relatively unpredictable and then ended up doing pretty well making correct picks).
The only sure-fire pick is what Las Vegas is going to do with the first overall pick. After that? Lots of questions.
Let's get right to it. Here is the Official Keck Thoughts 2026 NFL Mock Draft!
As always these are my predictions for where I think teams will pick players. I'm typically leery of projecting trades because they're so unpredictable, but I might predict a handful if I feel relatively confident in them
#1.) Las Vegas Raiders - Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana
This pick has been set in stone for months.
#2.) New York Jets - Arvell Reese, Edge, Ohio State
This pick is essentially considered a coin flip between Reese and Texas Tech's David Bailey. I'm leaning Reese.
#3.) Arizona Cardinals - Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame
Lot of smoke surrounding the Cardinals and their love of Love, but beat writers think it will be David Bailey, while other mock drafters are saying they could go offensive line. I would typically think that 3rd overall is high for a running back and I bet Arizona would love to trade back to accumulate some picks to help them later trade back into the first round to take Alabama QB Ty Simpson, but my guess is no one pays the asking price.
#4.) Tennessee Titans - Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State
If Love makes it past Arizona, he could very well go here. In this mock, Love isn't available, so I'm leaning towards Robert Saleh taking his next Fred Warner instead of taking his next Nick Bosa.
#5.) Dallas Cowboys (projected trade with NY Giants) - David Bailey, Edge, Texas Tech
Total guess here but I get the feeling that if Bailey slips this far someone will trade up for him, and I think Dallas has a pretty big need to fill at edge after trading away Micah Parsons.
#6.) Kansas City Chiefs (projected trade with Cleveland) - Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State
Cleveland is generally believed to desire a trade down, and I don't think Kansas City expects to be drafting this high again for a few years, so I anticipate them trading up to jump Washington and ensure they get the new weapon for Patrick Mahomes they want. If not Tate, potentially Tyson.
#7.) Washington Commanders - Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU
If Caleb Downs or Carnell Tate were available at this spot I think it'll be one of them. But in this mock neither is on the board, so Washington goes with the top CB in the class.
#8.) New Orleans Saints - Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State
New Orleans seems to be a wild card in this draft, with the possibility of them trading up or down and causing havoc on mock drafts. I think the way this board has played out they stick and pick a receiving weapon to go along with Chris Olave. Saints beat writers are also connecting Tyson to New Orleans, which is good enough for me.
#9.) Cleveland Browns (projected trade with Kansas City) - Spencer Fano, OT, Utah
Generally regarded that Cleveland will be drafting an offensive tackle in the first round, so while this could very well be Francis Mauigoa, Monroe Freeling, or Kadyn Proctor, I'm guessing they go with the young, high-upside Fano.
#10.) New York Giants - Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State
Giants miss on guys like Love and Tyson, but I think John Harbaugh is happy to settle for a future lynchpin of his defense.
#11.) Miami Dolphins - Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami (FL)
There's a belief Miami will focus on the trenches, and I think they luck out a little with Mauigoa's herniated disc letting him slip to them. The Hurricane product stays in South Florida.
#12.) New York Giants (projected trade with Dallas) - Vega Ioane, G, Penn State
The upside to New York trading down earlier in this round was that I could see them taking Ioane at 10th-overall, but instead they can snag him at 12 just ahead of Baltimore, letting Harbaugh stick it to his old team.
#13.) Los Angeles Rams - Makai Lemon, WR, USC
Seems to be a rather consensus pick, and one I think makes some sense considering everything going on with Puka Nacua, and Davante Adams not getting younger and his contract nearing its end. I could see LA going offensive tackle, too.
#14.) Detroit Lions (projected trade with Baltimore) - Rueben Bain Jr., Edge, Miami (FL)
This is admittedly a late projection on my part, but let me explain my thinking. The consensus is that Detroit will draft an offensive tackle, but I'm not entirely sure Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell think it's such an immediate need that they need to draft one in the first round. Holmes in particular has been talking about Larry Borom, whom they signed in free agency, as if they expect him to be their starting right tackle. So while I can absolutely see Detroit drafting a Monroe Freeling or Blake Miller or, yes, Kadyn Proctor (whom I very much do not want the Lions to draft), I can't help shake the feeling that Detroit might finally address their long-standing need at pass rusher.
Then there's the smokescreen I think Brad Holmes has been sending out. There are way too many reporters and insiders saying Detroit loves Proctor, including NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah saying Detroit is Proctor's floor. In all the years that Brad Holmes has been the Lions' general manager, when have there EVER been leaks of this kind saying precisely who Detroit loves or has their eye on? Never. With the exception of Aidan Hutchinson in 2022, I would say every single one of Brad Holmes' first round picks has been a relative surprise. And half the time Holmes makes trades to move around the first round. I do not believe Detroit will stick and pick at 17.
All that to say...I've seen some Lions writers/fans opine that perhaps Auburn edge Keldric Faulk might be the player Detroit targets. And perhaps he is. But if Rueben Bain Jr. falls out of the Top 10...I think Holmes pounces. Bain would be precisely what Detroit needs to pair with Hutchinson. And not unlike my above blurb about the Kansas City Chiefs, I don't think Detroit expects to be drafting this low again anytime soon.
Other players I can see Detroit drafting: Georgia OT Monroe Freeling, Clemson OT Blake Miller, Auburn edge Keldric Faulk, Oregon S Dillon Thieneman, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez
#15.) Philadelphia Eagles (projected trade with Tampa Bay) - Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama
By most accounts the Eagles will target a tackle, and I would not be surprised to see Howie Roseman make a move up to get the guy he really wants.
#16.) New York Jets - Denzel Boston, WR, Washington
The Jets are connected to various different pass catchers. Taking a wild stab that it will be Boston.
#17.) Baltimore Ravens (projected trade with Detroit) - Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon
After missing out on other top players, Baltimore happily trades back and snatches up one of the top talents in the draft who falls to them. A tale as old as time.
#18.) Minnesota Vikings - Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon
Minnesota has a lot of needs, and one of them is to get Harrison Smith's heir. If this comes to pass it could dog the Lions and the rest of the NFC North for years.
#19.) Carolina Panthers - Monroe Freeling, OT, Georgia
Texas A&M receiver KC Concepcion is name I've seen linked here a bunch, as well as Thieneman (who's gone in this mock), but Freeling feels like a sensible fit and could be Bryce Young's blind-side blocker for a long time to come.
#20.) Dallas Cowboys - Jacob Rodriguez, LB, Texas Tech
I already mocked an edge rusher to Dallas earlier, and while there's a potential they could double-dip, Rodriguez feels like a high-upside pick to add to Dallas' talent-needy defense. This could be Dallas's Jack Campbell pick.
#21.) Pittsburgh Steelers - Omar Cooper, Jr., WR, Indiana
Steelers have been connected to receivers, and Cooper seems like a good fit. I could also see Pittsburgh going with a tackle like Blake Miller.
#22.) Los Angeles Chargers - TJ Parker, edge, Clemson
Parker feels like a Jim Harbaugh pick, and LA needs edge rush help.
#23.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (projected trade with Philadelphia) - Akheem Mesidor, edge, Miami (FL)
Buccaneers trade back and still get their guy.
#24.) Cleveland Browns - KC Concepcion, WR, Texas A&M
#25.) Chicago Bears - Keldric Faulk, edge, Auburn
Ben Johnson gets his pocket crusher.
#26.) Buffalo Bills - Cashius Howell, edge, Texas A&M
#27.) San Francisco 49ers - Caleb Lomu, OT, Utah
Talented tackle who can kick inside to start his career as a guard for the Niners.
#28.) Houston Texans - Kayden McDonald, DT, Ohio State
#29.) Kansas City Chiefs - Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee
The Chiefs benefit from arguably the top CB falling due to an ACL injury.
#30.) Miami Dolphins - Chris Johnson, CB, San Diego State
Feel like Miami will take a CB here, so this is a coin flip between Johnson and Colton Hood to me.
#31.) New England Patriots - Malachi Lawrence, edge, UCF
Patriots have been connected often to Lawrence, but there's also a belief they could take a tackle and there's two good ones left on the board here in Blake Miller and Max Iheanachor.
#32.) Seattle Seahawks - Jadarian Price, RB, Notre Dame
One of these last picks in the first round will quite possibly be a spot where a team trades up for Alabama QB Ty Simpson, especially if a team wants to lock in the 5th-year option on Simpson's rookie contract. But the Seahawks just lost a stud RB who won Super Bowl MVP, and while Zach Charbonnet is a solid RB, I don't think Mike Macdonald will want to go into the season with him as RB1.
And there we have it! Posted this one hour before the draft starts, so let's see how this all turns out!
Again I apologize there was no Mocking the Detroit Lions NFL Draft series for a second year in a row. hopefully it returns next year. As for now, thanks for checking out the Keck Thoughts Official 2026 NFL Mock Draft. And enjoy the draft!
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