Welcome back to another NFL Draft season here at Keck Thoughts. We're getting the ball rolling earlier than usual because frankly I felt the need to do some writing. I've been toying around with mock draft simulations for weeks now whenever I have some downtime largely to get myself acquainted with this year's draft class, but now that the NFL Combine is happening in Indianapolis this week, I felt the need to start really figuring out what the Detroit Lions could do come April.
As usual, some explanation for how I typically handle mock draft simulations for these posts:
Some ground rules for how I performed today's mock draft simulation:
- I try to think along the lines of Lions GM Brad Holmes and Head Coach Dan Campbell...but ultimately I'll be making a lot of picks with what I think just makes sense given the circumstances.
- Due to the nature of mock draft simulators being an algorithm and subject to randomness, let's keep in mind that some players may fall in these simulations and be available to me when they probably won't be available for Detroit in real life. Each site also has their own rankings for the players in the draft, so there will be some variance in that alone. In this particular exercise I used Pro Football Focus' simulator and, because I'll be doing another one of these posts soon, this first exercise I manually adjusted the settings so the player rankings/board were based entirely off of PFF's Users and not PFF's own rankings. That will be my next post.
- As part of the exercise I will be doing my best to address the needs of the Detroit Lions' roster. Typically I go through and compile a list of Team Needs, but this particular simulation took longer than I expected it to so I didn't get a chance to make a Team Needs list yet. I will at some point in the future. My apologies.
And as I always mention, this is more of a thought exercise to see who the Lions might have available to them and who they might draft in reality. Two years I did three different exercises, three different scenarios, and at various points in those exercises I had Detroit draft Levi Onwuzurike, Alim McNeil, and Amon-Ra St. Brown, all of whom Detroit actually did draft that year. That's the kind of thing I'm talking about here.
With that lengthy intro out of the way, let's move on to the lengthy body of the post!
DETROIT LIONS MOCK DRAFT SCENARIO: Pro Football Focus User Rankings Version
1 – CHI – JALEN CARTER, DT, Georgia
2 – HOU – BRYCE YOUNG, QB, Alabama
3 – ARIZ – WILL ANDERSON JR., DE, Alabama
4 – INDY – CJ STROUD, QB, Ohio State
5 – SEA – TYREE WILSON, DE, Texas Tech
For Detroit's pick this leaves a "best available" board of Kentucky QB Will Levis, Illinois CB Devon Witherspoon (PFF’s top-rated CB), TCU WR Quentin Johnston, Alabama DB Brian Branch, Oregon CB Christian Gonzalez, Florida QB Anthony Richardson, Iowa DE Lukas Van Ness, Ohio State OT Paris Johnson Jr., Pitt DT Calijah Kancey, Northwestern OT Peter Skoronski, and Clemson DT Bryan Bresee.
Aside from maybe Levis there’s an
argument any single one of those players would be a good pick for the Lions.
Because of this I think it might be wise for Detroit to look into trading down
a few spots and picking up more draft ammo. Thankfully the Carolina Panthers
are calling, looking to trade up from the 9th pick. To drop 3 spots
I ask for Carolina’s 39th overall pick. But before we go further, let’s
take a look at the draft pick trade value charts.
According to Jimmy Johnson’s trade value chart, Detroit’s #6
pick is worth 1600 points, Carolina’s #9 is worth 1350, and Carolina’s #39 is
510 points. That’s a clear win for Detroit and a bit of an overpay for Carolina
(1900 points to 1600 points), but if the Panthers are looking to trade up for
their QB of the future, it’s not uncommon for them to pay a little extra.
According to the Rich Hill trade value chart, Detroit’s #6
pick is worth 446 points, Carolina’s #9 is 387 points, and Carolina’s #39 is
153. Again a bit of an overpay, but same deal as above.
In our simulation we’re running Carolina does accept our trade
terms and we swap picks. The Panthers indeed jump up and draft a QB in Will Levis.
Oakland follows by taking Florida QB Anthony Richardson, then Atlanta drafts
Ohio St OT Paris Johnson Jr., leaving us with our pick of the best cornerbacks
in the draft.
6 – CAR (TRADE) – WILL LEVIS, QB, Kentucky
7 – OAK – ANTHONY RICHARDSON, QB, Florida
8 – ATL – PARIS JOHNSON JR., OT, Ohio State
At this point for Detroit I think it comes down to two guys –
Devon Witherspoon and Christian Gonzalez. Witherspoon is smaller than Gonzalez
but seems to play a better all-around game with his play recognition and tackling.
Gonzalez is bigger and faster. Both guys are strong playing man-to-man
coverage, which is a pillar of Aaron Glenn’s defense. So Detroit really can’t
go wrong with either, but I’m leaning Witherspoon because he just screams “I’m
a Dan Campbell player” to me.
Round 1, Pick 9 (TRADE): DET – DEVON WITHERSPOON, CB, Illinois
Eight players get taken off the board between Detroit’s two 1st round picks:
10 – PHI – PETER SKORONSKI, OT, Northwestern
11 – TEN – MYLES MURPHY, DE, Clemson
12 – HOU – QUENTIN JOHNSTON, WR, TCU
13 – NYJ – JOEY PORTER JR., CB, Penn State
14 – NE – BRODERICK JONES, OT, Georgia
15 – GB – CHRISTIAN GONZALEZ, CB, Oregon
16 – WAS – JAXON SMITH-NJGIBA, WR, Ohio State
17 – PIT – MICHAEL MAYER, TE, Notre Dame
While I feel some of the picks that happen just before
Detroit’s 18th pick are unlikely to happen, you never know when it
comes to the draft. Guys fall and teams surprise all the time. Detroit would be
in a very envious position at this point with the board sitting as it is: Alabama
DB Brian Branch, Iowa DE Lukas Van Ness, Pitt DT Calijah Kancey, Clemson DT
Bryan Bresee, USC WR Jordan Addison, Georgia DE Nolan Smith, Texas RB Bijan
Robinson, and some others.
It's really dealer’s choice at this point. Brian Branch
would be another great addition to the Lions secondary and could be a chess
piece to upgrade over Will Harris – and considering how often Aaron Glenn’s
defense uses five defensive backs, Branch would likely be on the field a lot.
Van Ness would be another exciting addition to the blossoming Lions’ pass rush,
giving Detroit another versatile edge who defends the run very well and can
even kick inside on pass rush downs if need be.
Then there are the two DTs. Kancey is much more of a pass
rusher right now, and he’d be an immediate plus for the Lions in the middle of
the defensive line. Kancey could be the pass rush specialist while Alim McNeil
plays more of a nose tackle role when both are on the field. The only downside
to Kancey is his size – he’s only 6 feet tall and around 280 pounds. He might
get easily erased by double-teams. But when PFF gives him a crazy 92.1 pass
rush grade, you have to think about taking him.
Bresee is bigger and more suited to a
more rounded-out role than Kancey. He’d give Detroit more versatility from the DT position.
The biggest risk with Bresee is his health – he tore an ACL in 2021 and was
dinged up with a shoulder injury this past season. Is he injury-prone or just
unlucky?
It’s a very tough call and I’m truly having a hard time
making a decision here. One real world aspect I don’t have is what the Lions
will have done in free agency. In a perfect world they will have signed a
cornerback like Jamel Dean and maybe a defensive tackle like Dalvin Tomlinson
(if Tomlinson doesn’t extend with Minnesota first).
My heart says Bijan Robinson makes a ton of sense because of
his cost and because he would give the Lions a potentially elite running back.
If the Lions are sold on Jared Goff being the long-term QB, it would absolutely
help him to have a backfield partner who could help Goff continue thriving as a
play-action passer and keep defenses honest so they can’t flood the areas
Amon-Ra St. Brown thrives in.
My head, however, is telling me that Brian Branch fills a
much more immediate and long-term need as a chess piece for the
secondary, and perhaps we’re able to get a running back later in this draft. So
after all this deliberation, I’m going with Branch. And though Branch will
likely not be available at pick 18 come April’s draft, Notre Dame safety Kyle
Hamilton was thought to be a Top 5 player in 2022’s draft and he fell all the
way to Baltimore at pick 14. So never say never about Branch falling to 18.
Round 1, Pick 18: DET – BRIAN BRANCH, SAF, Alabama
As I expected, after we took Branch at 18, the Tampa Bay
Buccaneers draft Bijan Robinson at 19, and then a bunch of expected names fly
off the board. Van Ness goes next to Seattle at 20, Bresee goes to Jacksonville
at 24, Kancey to Dallas at 26. Some other intriguing potential options are
swiped up like Florida OG O’Cyrus Torrence to Cincinnati at 28, Arkansas LB
Drew Sanders to New Orleans at 29, Alabama RB Jahmyr Gibbs to Kansas City at 31
(a curious pick considering Isiah Pacheco and Jerrick McKinnon have been a nice
1-2 punch for KC), Tennessee OT Darnell Wright to Pittsburgh at 32, Clemson LB Trenton Simpson at 34, Georgia DE Nolan
Smith at 36, and Georgia Tech DE Keion White at 38.
In reality the Lions currently don’t have another pick #48,
but in this simulation we’re on the clock now at 39 because of the earlier
trade with the Panthers. We’re looking at a top board of Maryland CB Deonte
Banks, Army DE Andre Carter II, Utah TE Dalton Kincaid, Stanford QB Tanner McKee,
Texas A&M safety Antonio Johnson, Michigan DT Mazi Smith, Washington St LB
Daiyan Henley, and TCU OG Steve Avila.
All of these players would help address a starting role or
immediate Day 1 depth. I’m mostly drawn towards Mazi Smith in this scenario as
he’d help address one of the biggest issues the Lions had in 2022:
stopping the run. Smith is a prototypical nose tackle and a freak of nature. Detroit
hasn’t had a true run-stopping nose tackle like Smith since Damon Harrison, or
Haloti Ngata before him.
Round 2, Pick 39 (TRADE) – DET – MAZI SMITH, DT, Michigan
Between picks 39 and 48, eight players are selected but some
of the same guys on the board last time are still there like Carter, McKee, Henley,
and Avila. We have another pick coming up at 55, but at this juncture I’m going
to address another immediate starting need and take Avila, who will likely be
able to step in as a Day 1 right guard to replace Halapoulivaati Vaitai (whom I
expect the Lions to cut to save some money) and Evan Brown (whom I expect to
sign elsewhere in free agency).
Round 2, Pick 48: DET – STEVE AVILA, OG, TCU
Six more players fly off the board between picks 48 and 55.
None of them aside from Oregon State TE Luke Musgrave is a guy I particularly
had an eye on. Still some good TE options on the board including Iowa TE Sam
LaPorta, but ideally I want a TE who is strong in the run blocking game.
Army’s Carter, Stanford’s McKee, and Washington State’s
Henley are still on the board. I’m considering Henley because I think he could
be a Day 1 contributor, but looking a little further down the board I see
Northwestern DE Adetomiwa Adebawore is still available. Adebawore had a
fantastic week at the Senior Bowl and, while a bit raw, he could wind up being
another weapon to use in the pass rush game. Based on that potential I make him the pick especially if Detroit has cut one or both of Romeo Okwara and Charles Harris.
Round 2, Pick 55: DET – ADETOMIWA ADEBAWORE, DE, Northwestern
Bit of a wait between picks 55 and 81. Lots of good players
go off the board that I was hoping might fall to Detroit’s 3rd round
pick, including UGA TE Darnell Washington and Iowa LB Jack Campbell. At some
point I would like to address both of those positions, but right now I’m
focusing on a couple names towards the top of the board we could add to the
defense.
Illinois safety Sydney Brown has been picking up a lot of
steam in the lead up to the NFL Combine. He had an impressive Senior Bowl and is
very athletic so he should test very well in Indianapolis. Considering the
health of Tracy Walker as he returns from an Achilles injury, and we don’t know
yet if Detroit will re-sign DeShon Elliott, it could make sense for Detroit to
return to the same waters they plucked Kerby Joseph and Devon Witherspoon from.
That said, in this exercise we’ve already taken Brian Branch who would probably
play a lot of the same spots Brown would. But Brown would be more for depth
than as a starter.
Another Senior Bowl winner that’s still on the board is
Wisconsin DT Keeanu Benton. Benton would be another rotation piece to put in the
middle of the defensive line with McNeil, Isaiah Buggs (whom I expect Detroit to re-sign), and Mazi Smith (whom we
drafted earlier). Benton flashed really big pass rush potential but would
likely need to improve his consistency on a snap to snap basis.
I like the idea of adding more bodies to the defensive line, so I’m taking a chance on Benton here.
Round 3, Pick 81: DET – KEEANU BENTON, DT, Wisconsin
Now here is where it kind of hurts that Detroit doesn’t have
a 4th round pick because a LOT of players go off the board between
81 and 154. This is where true evaluations of the whole draft class become
tougher since it’s not my day job, but there are players here and there I see
who pop out to me. One of those is Indiana LB Cam Jones, another Senior Bowl
participant who had a very nice week. He’s stronger in the run game than in coverage
but considering Detroit’s biggest weakness last year was defending the run, I
like the idea of putting Jones in there with Malcolm Rodriguez and Derrick
Barnes.
Round 5, Pick 154: DET – CAM JONES, LB, Indiana
At pick 184 I’m starting to see if there are any players who’ve
fallen through the cracks and might fill a depth need or be a nice lottery
ticket. The top name I see on my board is Stanford WR Michael Wilson. Wilson is
a 6’2” prototypical WR who – say it with me – had a good Senior Bowl week. In
reality I expect him to be a Round 3 or 4 pick, not a Round 6 pick. But in this
exercise, he’s here so I snatch him up.
Round 6, Pick 183 : DET – MICHAEL WILSON, WR, Stanford
Last pick of the draft for the Lions and the only position I
never really addressed that I wanted to was tight end. Michigan TE Luke
Schoonmaker is still on the board and he tempts me, but maybe he’ll be
available as an undrafted free agent? Instead I opt to take a chance with the final
pick on a guy I also don’t expect to be available at pick 194 – TCU QB Max
Duggan. He can be inconsistent with his accuracy, but I respect the hell out of
his toughness and fortitude, plus he grades out well on deep passes and he’s
shown that he can run when he needs to. As the ninth pick of our draft
class, I think it’s worth the risk.
Round 6, Pick 194: DET – MAX DUGGAN, QB, TCU
In the end PFF grades this class out as an astounding “A” –
my only ding really being taking Duggan with that last pick (PFF does NOT like
Max Duggan apparently!).
Again, in reality I expect a number of these players to not
be available where we were able to take them – namely Branch, Benton, and
Wilson – but the NFL Draft is so crazy and random that you just never know.
I think an important aspect of this exercise was successfully
trading down with Carolina and picking up an extra Day 2 pick. If Brad Holmes
can trade down, get even MORE draft ammo, and get another potential starter
with that pick or use that pick to potentially trade UP at some point, I think
it’ll give Detroit just that much more flexibility to truly nail this draft
class.
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