The Official Keck Thoughts 2022 Mock NFL Draft

It's Draft Day. Follow Sonny Weaver Jr.'s lead and do what's best for the team.

It's time for the Official Keck Thoughts 2022 Mock Draft! As always these are my predictions for where I think teams will pick players. Unlike last year, I'm not going to project any trades in this year's mock. This year's draft is already incredibly unpredictable that projecting any trades will just cause even more of a headache. That said, as a Lions fan, I will note that I think they try to trade up for someone, but we'll get to that later.

In 2020 I correctly guessed 10 players to the team that drafted them. Last year that fell down to a measly 7. Not so hot. Let's see if I can do better this year. 

KECK THOUGHTS 2021 NFL MOCK DRAFT

#1.) Jacksonville Jaguars – Travon Walker, Edge, Georgia

- I'm buying the hype that Jacksonville GM Trent Baalke loves Walker's measurables and potential, but there is a part of me that is expecting a surprise pick of Kayvon Thibodeaux.

#2.) Detroit Lions – Aidan Hutchinson, Edge, Michigan

- This one I've gone back and forth on all day because it seems like the local Lions beat writers are split on who Brad Holmes and Co. draft. The Athletic's Chris Burke & Nick Baumgardner and Detroit News' Justin Rogers predicted Detroit taking Kayvon Thibodeaux, while the Detroit Free Press's Dave Birkett and MLive's Kyle Meinke predict Hutchinson. My gut is telling me Thibodeaux but I'm going to follow my head and say the consensus in Allen Park is Hutchinson.

#3.) Houston Texans – Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State

- Another tough pick as there's a lot of belief Houston could take Derek Stingley Jr. here, but I think they're more likely to try to trade back into the Top 10 to get Stingley later.

#4.) New York Jets – Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, CB, Cincinnati

- If Thibodeaux doesn't go to the Lions, I could see him landing with the Jets here.

#5.) New York Giants – Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State

- New York is heavily linked to drafting a tackle. I'm guessing it's Cross.

#6.) Carolina Panthers – Evan Neal, OT, Alabama

#7.) New York Giants – Kayvon Thibodeaux, Edge, Oregon

- There's been chatter in the media that the Giants were rubbed the wrong way by Thibodeaux in meetings, but I think that's a smokescreen, hoping he'd fall to them.

#8.) Atlanta Falcons – Drake London, WR, USC

- Last year the Lions had the worst WR corps in the NFL, now the Falcons hold that distinction. They badly need to draft a WR, so I'm predicting they take the guy who can best go up and get the ball. Wouldn't shock me if Jermaine Johnson or Thibodeaux winds up here either.

#9.) Seattle Seahawks – Jermaine Johnson, Edge, Florida State

- Sounds like Seattle could be a landing spot for Thibodeaux or Stingley, too. This could also be the spot where Houston trades up to take Stingley.

#10.) New York Jets – Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama

- The Jets were in on the bidding for Tyreek Hill. After missing out on him, they can take a player a lot like Hill and for a fraction of the price.

#11.) Washington Commanders – Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State

#12.) Minnesota Vikings – Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame

- I think Hamilton is going to be a very good NFL player for a long time, so if he lands in Minnesota I won't be happy. But it makes too much sense not to happen.

#13.) Houston Texans – Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU

- I have Houston getting their guy by just sitting still, a lesson Texans GM Nick Caserio can take from his long-time mentor Bill Belichick, who stayed at pick 15 last year and still got the QB he needed.

#14.) Baltimore Ravens – Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia

- Seems like this is the pick most often mocked to Baltimore, so let's ride with it.

#15.) Philadelphia Eagles – Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State

- The Eagles need a few things, and wide receiver is one of them.

#16.) New Orleans Saints – Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa

- This is higher than I think Penning should go, but New Orleans needs to replace Terron Armstead. I could see Central Michigan's Bernhard Raimann being the pick here, too.

#17.) Los Angeles Chargers – Zion Johnson, OT, Boston College

- I have genuinely no idea what the Chargers are going to do.

#18.) Philadelphia Eagles – George Karlaftis, Edge, Purdue

#19.) New Orleans Saints – Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt

- I don't think the Saints absolutely need to take a QB in this draft, but the fit would be pretty good between them and Pickett.

#20.) Pittsburgh Steelers – Malik Willis, QB, Liberty

- Another pick that lots of people are predicting based on Mike Tomlin's apparent interest in Willis.

#21.) New England Patriots – Quay Walker, LB, Georgia

- In a little bit of a surprise I think Belichick takes Walker over Utah's Devin Lloyd. 

#22.) Green Bay Packers – Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas

- Green Bay needs help at WR after losing Davante Adams and Marques Valdez-Scandling this offseason, but it's also well-known they don't take receivers in the first round. I think they will this year, and I don't think they can wait.

#23.) Arizona Cardinals – Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State

#24.) Dallas Cowboys – Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah

- Dallas is often mocked an offensive lineman, but I think if Lloyd falls this far they can't not pair him with Micah Parsons.

#25.) Buffalo Bills – Breece Hall, RB, Iowa State

- Another oft-mocked pick, which I don't understand, but sure let's go with it.

#26.) Tennessee Titans – Kenyon Green, OG, Texas A&M

#27.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia

- I think Tampa Bay could very well take a safety or corner with this pick, but Wyatt fills a need especially if Ndamukong Suh doesn't return.

#28.) Green Bay Packers – Daxton Hill, DB, Michigan

#29.) Kansas City Chiefs – Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington

- I don't think Kansas City uses either of these two first round picks; I think bundle them to trade up to get a wide receiver. But since I'm not projecting trades, let's give them McDuffie.

#30.) Kansas City Chiefs – Boye Mafe, Edge, Minnesota

#31.) Cincinnati Bengals – Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa

- Cincinnati is a question mark to me, but even after addressing their porous offensive line in free agency they can still add a Day One starter like Linderbaum to it.

#32.) Detroit Lions – Lewis Cine, S, Georgia

- This pick is an even bigger question mark than what Detroit will do at #2. Does Detroit take a QB, especially if Pickett or Willis falls here like I've seen them do in some notable mock drafts? Do the Lions take Georgia's Nakobe Dean? A wide receiver? All I know is in this mock Cine is still available and he's the best marriage of need and talent.

All that said about Detroit's 32nd overall pick, as touched on earlier, if I was projecting trades I think Detroit tries to bundle pick 32 with next year's 1st they got from Los Angeles in the Matthew Stafford trade, and try to trade up for a quarterback or a wide receiver. My best guess would be they try to trade up for Malik Willis. So for funsies, my bold prediction is that Detroit trades pick 32 and next year's 1st from the Rams to the New Orleans Saints for pick 19 so they can steal Malik Willis away from Pittsburgh.

MOCKING THE DETROIT LIONS 2022 DRAFT

As the old saying goes, better late than never!

For two years now in the lead-up to the annual NFL Draft I have written some blog posts where I do a mock draft simulation exercise to see what scenarios the Detroit Lions could possibly see as the draft unfolds.

Typically I perform multiple versions of these exercises, but this year due to my busy work and life schedule, I was only to do a single simulation. Like last year I opted to utilize The Draft Network's mock draft simulator.

What I'm attempting to do is play out scenarios (or in this year's case, a scenario) for the Lions, pretend like I'm Lions General Manager Brad Holmes, and draft players that fill out both Detroit's short and long-term needs.

In addition to today's "Mocking the Draft" exercise, I will also be posting The Official 2022 Keck Thoughts Mock Draft in a separate post.

I think it's worth reinforcing that the mock draft I'm posting separately is what I think will happen, not what I want to happen or would do if I were GM.

Some ground rules for how I performed today's mock draft simulation: 

- Once again I tried to think along the lines of Lions GM Brad Holmes and Head Coach Dan Campbell...but ultimately I'll be making a lot of picks with what I think just makes sense given the circumstances.

- Due to the nature of these mock draft simulators being an algorithm and subject to randomness, let's keep in mind that some players may fall in these simulations and be available to me when they probably won't be available for Detroit in real life. Each site also has their own rankings for the players in the draft, so there will be some variance in that alone. So if a guy like Quay Walker somehow falls to me in the 3rd round, I won't be passing on him just because I think it's unrealistic for him to fall that far.

- As part of the exercise I will be doing my best to address the needs of the Detroit Lions' roster. After consulting multiple websites to see what they believe Detroit's needs are, I compiled a list and tweaked it a smidge with my own thoughts on what their needs are to give myself a final "Team Needs" list that I'll do my best to address. Positions have been listed in order of most-needed to least-need, and that list of Team Needs will be listed with each scenario as a refresher and so we can see how well (or how poorly) I did in addressing those needs. Once again let's be honest: the Lions need help almost everywhere after going 3-13-1 last season. Offensive line is maybe the one area they don't need an immediate injection of talent.

I think we all know that mock drafts are typically fruitless endeavors and usually land somewhere between being 10% to 20% correct since there are just so many variables and random things that can happen in a draft. But as I said, this is for fun. So I'm not worried about my accuracy being judged too harshly.

As mentioned before, this is more of a thought exercise to see who the Lions might have available to them and who they might draft in reality. Last year I did three different exercises, three different scenarios, and at various points in those exercises I had Detroit draft Levi Onwuzurike, Alim McNeil, and Amon-Ra St. Brown, all of whom Detroit actually did draft last April. That's the kind of thing I'm talking about here.

Ok! Now that THAT long introduction is done, let's get to the mocking!

DETROIT LIONS MOCK DRAFT SCENARIO: Sticking at #2

Team Needs: S, DE, LB, WR, CB, DT, QB, TE, RB, OL

Draft Results:

With the 1st overall pick, the Jacksonville Jaguars selected Georgia edge Travon Walker, leaving me with a decision to make between Aidan Hutchinson and Kayvon Thibodeaux, or possibly trading down.

The New York Giants did call offering the 5th overall pick, their 2nd round pick (36th overall), and two 3rd rounders (67th and 81st overall) – a fair trade, with slightly more value coming to Detroit, but in this mock I’m staying put at #2. (In reality that's absolutely a trade Detroit should be making though, for obvious reasons).

Reading the tea leaves, it seems like Allen Park might be split between Hutchinson and Thibodeaux. Some in the media think Brad Holmes wants Thibodeaux, especially after spending significant resources on scouting him; while most others think Hutchinson is the top-rated player in the draft and Detroit should jump on him. 

I’m of the mind that Hutchinson is the best player in the draft, with the higher floor than any other edge rusher in the draft. So even though I can absolutely see Detroit opting for the potentially higher ceiling of Thibodeaux, I’m playing it safe with the #2 pick and taking the hometown boy, who should be a perfect culture fit with what Holmes and Campbell are building in Motown.

Round 1 (Pick #2): Aidan Hutchinson, Edge, Michigan

 

For the 32nd pick, I get a couple of trade offers. Jacksonville oddly calls me offering their 3rd round pick (65th overall), their 7th round pick (235th overall), and their 2022 3rd round pick, which falls well short of equaling value on the draft pick trade value chart. Pittsburgh calls offering a 2nd round pick (52nd overall), a 4th round pick (138st overall), a 6th (208th overall), and a 7th (225th overall) which is even less value than Jacksonville’s offer, but had me considering it for a hot second because I wouldn’t mind picking up a 4th round pick to make up for the one Detroit gave up last year when they traded up to draft Derrick Barnes. Ultimately though neither offer is enough value, so I’m staying put. 

Looking at available options we have a hard decision to make. Three of the top quarterbacks in the class are still available in Pitt's Kenny Pickett, Cincinnati's Desmond Ridder, and North Carolina's Sam Howell. All three have been mocked to the Lions in mock drafts I’ve read the past few months. I find it unlikely Pickett would still be available at 32, but Ridder and Howell I easily see. I do love me some Desmond Ridder, and I’m a proponent of drafting a QB with the 32nd pick to lock in that 5th year of team control for first-round picks.

There was a HUGE run on wide receivers in this simulation's 1st round which all but takes a WR off the table for us at this pick. Ohio State’s Garrett Wilson, USC’s Drake London, Alabama’s Jameson Williams, Ohio State’s Chris Olave, Arkansas’s Treylon Burks, Penn State’s Jahan Dotson, and Western Michigan’s Skyy Moore all got drafted between picks 8 and 29. That does leave George Pickens and Christian Watson, two WRs I very much like, on the board, but WR isn't as big a need as some other positions after the emergence of Amon-Ra St. Brown, the trade for Josh Reynolds, and the free agent signing of DJ Chark. 

Detroit also badly needs reinforcement on the defensive side of the ball and there are some appealing options available including Utah linebacker Devin Lloyd, Georgia linebacker Nakobe Dean, Georgia linebacker Quay Walker, Georgia safety Lewis Cine, Penn State safety Jaquan Brisker, and Michigan edge David Ojabo (who’s recovering from a torn Achilles and likely will be out the entire 2022 season). 

Lloyd and Dean have some injury concerns, plus Dean is small for a LB even though he’s awesome. Walker has been shooting up mock draft boards lately and has been connected to Detroit sometimes. Lions LB coach Kelvin Sheppard even ran drills at Georgia’s Pro Day so he was working very closely with Dean and Walker that day. Cine and Brisker would fill a huge hole at the other starting safety position next to Tracy Walker, and Ojabo could be a great value play. 

Ultimately I look at the options I’ll still have on the board when I pick again in two picks and decide to lock in that extra year of team control for a quarterback who could be Jared Goff’s apprentice in 2022 or possibly even overtake him during the season: Kenny Pickett. Pickett visited Allen Park for one of Detroit’s "Top 30" visits, they would have had a day during Senior Bowl week to coach him when the Jets and Lions’ staffs swapped players for a day, and he’s the most pro ready QB in the draft. I’ll reiterate that I don’t think Pickett falls to 32, but Detroit’s done their due diligence in case he does. QB also isn't the biggest need the Lions have, but I don't believe Goff is the long-term answer for Detroit even if Holmes and Campbell think the world of him. So Pickett is the pick.

Round 1 (Pick #32): Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt

For the 34th pick I got more trade calls. Philly called offering a 2nd (51st overall), a 4th (124th overall), and a 7th (237th) which was very shy of true value for pick 34 (though again I liked that 4^th round pick). New England called offering a 2nd (54th overall) and a 3rd (85th overall) which was closer to full value but was still somewhat shy. I opt to stay at 34.

Jacksonville took Devin Lloyd at 33 which is a bit of a bummer because he would’ve been my pick if he made it one more spot, but I still have Dean, Cine, Walker, Ojabo, and Brisker available as well as some WR options like Pickens and Watson. For the value and to fill the team need, I’m going with Lewis Cine to shore up that secondary. Not only was Cine highly productive and is a natural fit for the defense Aaron Glenn runs, his athleticism is off the charts. For those familiar with Kent Lee Platte's "Relative Athletic Score", Cine scored a 9.92 RAS (out of a possible 10), which ranked as the 8th-best for a free safety since 1987.

Round 2 (Pick #34): Lewis Cine, S, Georgia

Lots of very good players went off the board between picks 34 and 66, including Pickens and Watson, but plenty of good options are still there. Best available players facing us at pick 66 include Wyoming linebacker Chad Muma, Colorado State tight end Trey McBride, Wisconsin linebacker Leo Chanel, Oklahoma linebacker Brian Asomoah, Kentucky guard Darian Kinnard, and Memphis wide receiver Calvin Austin. For me this is an easy pick, which is Chad Muma. He fits a big need as a stack linebacker and he’s another strong athlete, scoring a 9.77 RAS (56th-best out of 2419 linebackers since 1987). If Muma hadn’t been available I probably would’ve opted for Chanel to hit that LB spot, who’s probably even better than Muma at run defense and blitzing, but isn’t as strong in pass coverage.

Round 3 (Pick #66): Chad Muma, LB, Wyoming

A bit of a run on WR happened not long before our pick here at 97, with Memphis’ Calvin Austin III going at 86, Boise State’s Khalil Shakur going at 87, Kentucky’s Wen’Dale Robinson going at 88, and Cincinnati’s Alec Pierce going at 89. That’s fine with me, as a WR that has been linked to Detroit decently often by Lions beat writers is still available: South Alabama’s Jalen Tolbert. Tolbert was on the Lions’ Senior Bowl squad, so the staff is already familiar with him. By all accounts he had a strong week of practice in Mobile, he’d fit a need for the Lions as a possible X receiver, and he’s a good athlete having scored an 8.62 RAS (386th-best out of 2785 WR since 1987). 

Round 3 (Pick #97): Jalen Tolbert, WR, South Alabama

 

And now…we wait. It’s a long stretch of 80 picks between Lions’ selections as it currently stands, which is why it would behoove Detroit to make a trade and grab any kind of 4^th round pick sometime this weekend. When it’s our turn on the clock again, the best players on the board are: Michigan running back Hassan Haskins, Cincinnati running back Jerome Ford, Sam Houston State cornerback Zyon McCollum, Oregon safety Verone McKinley III, and BYU running back Tyler Allgeier. Allgeier is the one who catches my attention because on The Draft Network’s rankings he’s ranked as their 217th-best player, but The Athletic’s Dane Brugler (whom I think highly of) has Allgeier rated as his 4th-best RB. And while Allgeier scored a decent RAS of 7.4, Kent Lee Platte has repeatedly said Allgeier might be his favorite player in the draft. It’s good enough for me, especially in the 5th round.

Round 5 (Pick #177): Tyler Allgeier, RB, BYU

 

The wait between Detroit’s 5th and 6th selections in the draft is significantly shorter, as we’re up again at pick 181. A lot of the same names are still on the board, including Zyon McCollum, whom Brugler ranks as his 14th-best cornerback and projects as a 3rd or 4th-round pick. That’s a value pick for us late in the 5th round.

Round 5 (Pick #181): Zyon McCollum, CB, Sam Houston State

Detroit’s final selection of the 2022 Draft is pick 217, as they gave up their 7th round pick in the trade with Denver last season for Trinity Benson. Lots of directions we could go here, and I’m going to take a path I’ve seen favored by local beat writers and some fans by drafting Michigan State fullback/tight end Connor Heyward. Heyward was a long-time starter for the Spartans, so he has the local tie which is nice. More importantly he fills a need for Detroit as a tight end who can catch passes but also block. Like Jalen Tolbert, Heyward was on the Lions’ Senior Bowl squad and it seemingly was a good fit between player and coaching staff. I think he’d be a perfect culture fit for the Lions but also fit the aforementioned need. Easy pick to make.

Round 6 (Pick #1217): Connor Heyward, FB/TE, Michigan State

OVERVIEW

Overall I think this is a very solid draft class for the Lions. They get the consensus top-rated player in the draft at a major position of need with Hutchinson, they get one of the top quarterbacks in the class as a possible long-term solution at the most important position in the game, and they get multiple Day One contributors in Cine and Muma. Tolbert can be brought along at his own speed as a rookie, and Allgeier, McCollum, and Heyward can contribute as special teamers and depth.

It's not super sexy, but provided players stay healthy, this would be another very strong draft class that could help Detroit's rebuild.

I hope you enjoyed this exercise, as I enjoyed going through it and writing up this post. You can see my post with my Official Keck Thoughts Mock Draft on its own post, and we'll see how it all shakes out in what is sure to be one of the more unpredictable NFL Drafts in some time. Thanks for reading!

The Official Keck Thoughts 2021 Mock NFL Draft

It's Draft Day. Let's get our Sonny Weaver, Jr. on. All week I've been doing mock draft exercises utilizing the mock draft simulators on The Draft Network, seeing what various scenarios we could potentially see if the Detroit Lions were to stay put at the 7th overall pick, if they were to trade down but not fall outside the Top 12, and if they traded down even further than that.

Today I focus solely on the the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft and predict what I think WILL happen. As we've already covered this is a fruitless endeavor because there are just SO many variables in reality, but this is for fun and games.

One more time: these are my predictions for where I think teams will pick players. I'm going to project trades that I think are likely/possible to happen. I don't like doing mock drafts that don't incorporate trades because trades do happen and happen with some frequency in reality.

Originally I had planned to do a little write-up for each pick giving my rationale but I've run out of time, so instead I'll briefly discuss why I have the Lions taking Justin Fields at #7.

Throughout the draft process there's been innumerable words typed and immeasurable digital ink spilled about the top 5 quarterbacks in this year's draft, none of them as maligned as Ohio State star QB Justin Fields. Frankly he should be going 2nd or 3rd overall, but this entire pre-draft process people have somehow been talking themselves into thinking he's NOT a great quarterback. As if he didn't have a fantastic career at Ohio State. As if his performance in the College Football Playoff Semifinal against Clemson didn't have people openly wondering if maybe he actually should go 1st overall instead of Trevor Lawrence.

Well I'm here to say that I think Fields is the 2nd-best QB prospect in this draft, and with the Detroit Lions in the nascent stages of a rebuild, one of the best things they could do is take advantage of other teams passing on a QB of Fields' ability. Yes the Lions have Jared Goff, but Goff is not the future of the Detroit Lions. Sorry, but he's just not. We've most likely seen the pinnacle of Goff's career when he was surrounded by a stellar offensive cast in Los Angeles, and it got him 3 points in a Super Bowl. It's been downhill ever since.

I get the arguments that Detroit should build the the team up first over the next couple seasons so that eventually all you need is to go get your QB. It's a fair argument. It's once reason Kansas City's been so good, it's one reason Tampa Bay one the Super Bowl last year, it makes a lot of sense. But my counter-argument is this: what if you build up that team over two or three seasons and then whiff on the QB once you finally decide to go for him? Look no further than the Chicago Bears for a perfect example of this.

Plus there's no guarantee that 2022 or 2023's QB prospects are going to be better than Justin Fields could be. I would rather take the guy available to me right now than hope for some hypothetical QB in a future draft.

All that said, I think not enough people have pegged Detroit as a landing spot for Fields. Fields can sit one or two seasons behind Jared Goff, get seasoned, grow as a professional QB, and then take over the reins once Detroit decides to move on from Goff. Lions General Manager Brad Holmes and Lions Special Assistant Chris Spielman attended Fields' first pro day, and the Lions sent another contingent to Fields' second pro day. They've done the leg work. I don't think they thought in their wildest dreams that Fields would ever actually be available to at 7, but I think he will be. And if he is, I think the take him and don't look back.

Now watch as Detroit actually trades down with New England or New Orleans and this is all a moot point.

Last year I correctly guessed 10 players to the team that drafted them. I was wrong about Miami and Detroit making a trade, but they did take the players I thought they would. Do with that what you will.

Let's get to it!

KECK THOUGHTS 2021 NFL MOCK DRAFT

#1.) Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

#2.) New York Jets - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

#3.) San Francisco 49ers - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama

#4.) Atlanta Falcons - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

#5.) Cincinnati Bengals - Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU

#6.) Miami Dolphins - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama

#7.) Detroit Lions - Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

#8.) Los Angeles Chargers (projected trade with CAR) - Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon

#9.) Denver Broncos - Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State

#10.) Dallas Cowboys - Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama

#11.) New York Giants - Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State

#12.) Philadelphia Eagles - DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama

#13.) Carolina Panthers (projected trade with LAC) - Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern

#14.) Minnesota Vikings - Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL, USC

#15.) New England Patriots - Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa

#16.) New Orleans Saints (projected trade with ARI) - Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina

#17.) Las Vegas Raiders - Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech

#18.) Miami Dolphins - Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan

#19.) Washington Football Team - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame

#20.) Chicago Bears - Tevin Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State

#21.) Indianapolis Colts - Jaelin Phillips, DE, Miami (FL)

#22.) Tennessee Titans - Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss

#23.) New York Jets - Landon Dickerson, OL, Alabama

#24.) Pittsburgh Steelers - Najee Harris, RB, Alabama

#25.) Jacksonville Jaguars - Pat Friermuth, TE, Penn State

#26.) Cleveland Browns - Jamin Davis, LB, Kentucky

#27.) Baltimore Ravens - Jayson Oweh, DE, Penn State

#28.) Arizona Cardinals (projected trade with NO) - Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern

#29.) Green Bay Packers - Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota

#30.) Buffalo Bills - Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson

#31.) Baltimore Ravens - Alex Leatherwood, OL, Alabama

#32.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama

Mocking the Detroit Lions 2021 Draft - Scenario #3: Trading Down Decently Far

In our last edition of "Mocking the Detroit Lions 2021 Draft" we tackle a "what if?" scenario to see what could happen if the Lions trade down not just a few spots, but decently far down in the 1st round.

As I explained in the first scenario post, each day this week leading up to the NFL Draft on Thursday I will be posting a mock draft scenario in an attempt to see what players and situations could be available for the Lions in all 7 rounds of this year's draft. I will be doing three different mocks drafts using just one website this year. What I'm attempting to do is play out three different scenarios for the Lions, pretend like I'm new Lions General Manager Brad Holmes, and draft players that fill out both Detroit's short and long-term needs.
Last year I did three mocks using two different websites - The Draft Network and Pro Football Focus -because I didn't have a paid subscription to TDN and thus couldn't make any draft trades. This year I bit the bullet and paid up, so we'll stick with TDN instead of using PFF as well. (Frankly PFF changed their mock draft simulator where other teams aren't actively offering you trades now, too, which I don't like. So we'll be sticking with TDN which will allow us to have the same draft algorithm for all three exercises.)

The remaining schedule of things I'll be posting this week is below:

Thursday (4/29): The Official 2021 Keck Thoughts Mock Draft

I think it's worth reinforcing that the mock draft I post on Thursday is what I think will happen, not what I want to happen or would do if I were GM.

Some ground rules for how I'll be performing these mock drafts: 

- Last year I was cosplaying as Bob Quinn, but this year Detroit has a new General Manager in Brad Holmes and a new Head Coach in Dan Campbell. By all accounts it seems like the two of them are going to be working in tandem to build the team, with Holmes having final say. Because Holmes is new and has never been a GM before we don't have as good a handle on what Holmes looks for in a his players as we did under Quinn. In his time with the Los Angeles Rams as their Director of College Scouting the Rams did draft running backs in the 2nd round a few times, and they were particularly good at finding some gems on defense in the later rounds, like John Johnson III. So for these mock scenarios I'm going to do my best to think like I think Holmes will think.....that's a tongue twister....but ultimately I'll be making a lot of picks with what I think just makes sense given the circumstances.

- Due to the nature of these mock draft simulators being an algorithm and subject to randomness, let's keep in mind that some players may fall in these simulations and be available to me when they probably won't be available for Detroit in real-life. Each site also has their own rankings for the players in the draft, so there will be some variance in that alone. But I'm taking each of these drafts one at a time, as they are, so if a guy like Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah somehow falls to me in the 2nd round in one of these mocks, I won't be passing on him just because I think it's unrealistic for him to fall that far.

- As part of the exercise I will be doing my best to address the needs of the Detroit Lions' roster. After consulting multiple websites to see what they believe Detroit's needs are, I compiled a list and tweaked it a smidge with my own thoughts on what their needs are to give myself a final "Team Needs" list that I'll do my best to address. Positions have been listed in order of most-needed to least-need, and that list of Team Needs will be listed with each scenario as a refresher and so we can see how well (or how poorly) I did in addressing those needs. But let's be honest: the Lions need help everywhere except punter and long snapper. Hell, they even have a need at kicker now. (I won't be drafting a kicker.)

I think we all know that mock drafts are typically fruitless endeavors and usually land somewhere between being 10% to 20% correct since there are just so many variables and random things that can happen in a draft. But as I said, this is for fun. So I'm not worried about my accuracy being judged too harshly.

Ok! Let's get to the mocking!

DETROIT LIONS MOCK DRAFT SCENARIO #3: Trading Down Decently Far

Team Needs: WR, OT, LB, S, CB, DT, DE, QB, RB, TE (again, everything)

Draft Results:

The first six picks in this mock simulation went slightly different than yesterday's exercise did, but ultimately the same six players were taken in the first six picks.

1.) JAX - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

2.) NYJ - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

3.) SF - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama

4.) ATL - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

5.) CIN - Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon

6.) MIA - Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU

In this simulation the first six picks went in a slightly different way but for the most part was very similar to our other two exercises. The main different being Cincinnati drafted Penei Sewell instead of Ja'Marr Chase, allowing Chase to fall to Miami at 6. Regardless, two quarterbacks were still on the board thus prompting some very similar trade offers as Scenario #1 with one major exception that fits perfectly with our current exercise. Let's take a look at those offers real quick:

Carolina: The Panthers only offered a 2021 4th round pick (113th overall) to swap 1st round picks. Not what we want for this exercise.

Denver: The Broncos came calling yet again only offering their 3rd round pick (71st overall) to swap spots with us. Again not what we want for this exercise.

New England: Here we go. New England comes calling with a strong offer of giving Detroit a 4th round pick in this year’s draft (120 overall) and a 2022 1st round pick to swap 1sts this year. In my opinion there’s a very clear line of demarcation where if I’m dropping below that, I want a future 1st or something equivalent. That line just so happens to end between picks 14 and 15. So this trade is a fine move for Detroit to make. We accept the Patriots' offer of swapping 1sts this year and Detroit getting New England's 2022 1st round pick, which gives the Lions three 1sts for the 2022 Draft. Now let's play out this mock draft simulation!

Round 1 (Pick #15): Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama

Now that we’ve traded down to 15, the next 8 picks were Trey Lance to New England, Northwestern OT Rashawn Slater to Carolina, Ohio State QB Justin Fields to Denver, Alabama CB Patrick Surtain II to Dallas, Penn State LB Micah Parsons to New York, South Carolina CB Jaycee Horn to Philadelphia, Virginia Tech OT Christian Darrisaw to Los Angeles, and then a surprise pick in Miami (FL) DE Jaelen Phillips to Minnesota.

This left us with our pick of two great Alabama receivers in Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith. Having to choose between these two receivers is like having to choose between watching Airplane! or Dumb & Dumber. You can’t go wrong with either. In this particular scenario, while I’m surprised to see Waddle fall this far, I’m happy to draft him because he has amazing speed, which is a trait the new Lions regime clearly wants to add at all levels of the team. 

Round 2 (Pick #41): Landon Dickerson, OL, Alabama

As I watched the players going off the board leading up to our 2nd round pick, I kept seeing Notre Dame LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah go undrafted. Though I would be shocked if JOK fell as far as he did in this simulation, it would’ve been an incredible steal for Detroit had he fallen all the way to 41. Alas, the Broncos snatched him up one pick before ours. Damn. Best players left on the board include a couple RBs in Clemson’s Travis Etienne and UNC’s Javonte Williams, Alabama OL Landon Dickerson, Notre Dame OT Liam Eichenberg, Oklahoma OL Creed Humphrey, Washington DT Levi Onwuzurike, Ohio State LB Baron Browning, and others. I eschew the flashy RBs cuz we don’t need one and instead opt to go with Landon Dickerson yet again. Yes he has injury concerns, but when healthy I think he could be an All-Pro at right guard playing next to Frank Ragnow for years to come.

Round 3 (Pick #72): Richie Grant, S, UCF

Third round, my desired target of LSU LB Jabril Cox got drafted a few spots ahead of me, so I’m left with top options of UCF S Richie Grant, OSU LB Pete Werner, UNC LB Chazz Surratt, VaTech S Divine Deablo, and handful of WRs in Michigan’s Nico Collins, Western Michigan’s D’Wayne Eskridge, USC’s Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Oklahoma State’s Tylan Wallace. Considering we’ve already addressed WR and OL with our first two picks, I lean towards grabbing Grant (like we did in Scenario #1) to add to the secondary.

Round 3 (Pick #101): Cameron McGrone, LB, Michigan

With our second 3rd round pick, we still have some needs at CB, OT, LB and DL. Best available players on the board were Michigan LB Cam McGrone, LSU DL Tyler Shelvin, NC State DL Alim McNeil, USC DL Marlon Tuipulotu, and Oregon State DE Hamilcar Rashed, Jr. Considering we have another pick coming up at pick 112, I opt for McGrone to address our LB need. McGrone has the potential to be a very good sideline-to-sideline LB provided he stays healthy.

Round 4 (Pick #112): Alim McNeill, DT, NC State

We have two picks in the 4th round courtesy of our trade down with the Patriots. Ideally I’d still like to address defense because we haven’t touched the defensive line, and we could use a CB. So at pick 112 I take NC State DT Alim McNeil (as we did in Scenario #2).

Round 4 (Pick #120): Robert Rochell, CB, Central Arkansas

And with our second 4th round pick I’ll snatch up Central Arkansas CB Robert Rochell again, as we did in Scenario #1. Rochell has the potential to either be a nickel cornerback or play on the outside if he develops. Not bad for a Day 3 pick.

Round 5 (Pick #153): Rashad Weaver, DE, Pitt

Last pick of the draft and at this juncture I’m looking at the board for who might be a good flier or could be someone who’s fallen and would be a great value. Pitt DE Rashad Weaver fits both those descriptions, so he’s the easy pick.

OVERVIEW

Quite frankly this is the draft I think is best from top-to-bottom of the three scenarios we've done this week, and that's thanks in large part to Jaylen Waddle falling all the way down to us at 15 after we traded down. Even DeVonta Smith would've been a good pick there. So while my preference is for the Lions to come away with Justin Fields or Trey Lance tonight, should they trade down with New England like a lot of people think could happen, this would be a pretty solid first draft for Brad Holmes.

Of course we're now living in a world where the Lions might trade down even further with the New Orleans Saints, all the way down to 28th overall. I won't be doing a fourth exercise to see how that goes, but trust me when I say I want to. I just don't have the time.

Instead I'll be writing up the Official Keck Thoughts 2021 NFL Mock Draft to post tonight before the real Draft gets started at 8pm! If you've been reading these posts this week I truly hope you enjoyed them, got something out of them, and didn't read them going "This idiot doesn't know what he's talking about" the whole time. Not that I'm not an idiot, I just hope you weren't thinking it the whole time. Thanks again for reading, and check out the mock draft later today!

COMING LATER TODAY: 

The Official Keck Thoughts 2021 NFL Mock Draft

Mocking the Detroit Lions 2021 Draft - Scenario #2: Trading Down a Little Ways

Welcome back to another addition of "Mocking the Detroit Lions 2021 Draft"! Today we tackle a "what if?" scenario to see what could happen if the Lions trade down just a few spots.

As I explained in the first post yesterday, each day this week leading up to the NFL Draft on Thursday I will be posting a mock draft scenario in an attempt to see what players and situations could be available for the Lions in all 7 rounds of this year's draft. I will be doing three different mocks drafts using just one website this year. What I'm attempting to do is play out three different scenarios for the Lions, pretend like I'm new Lions General Manager Brad Holmes, and draft players that fill out both Detroit's short and long-term needs.

Last year I did three mocks using two different websites - The Draft Network and Pro Football Focus -because I didn't have a paid subscription to TDN and thus couldn't make any draft trades. This year I bit the bullet and paid up, so we'll stick with TDN instead of using PFF as well. (Frankly PFF changed their mock draft simulator where other teams aren't actively offering you trades now, too, which I don't like. So we'll be sticking with TDN which will allow us to have the same draft algorithm for all three exercises.)

The remaining schedule of things I'll be posting this week is below.

Wednesday Evening (4/28) Scenario #3 - Trading Down Decently Far

Thursday (4/29): The Official 2021 Keck Thoughts Mock Draft

I think it's worth reinforcing that the mock draft I post on Thursday is what I think will happen, not what I want to happen or would do if I were GM.

Some ground rules for how I'll be performing these mock drafts: 

- Last year I was cosplaying as Bob Quinn, but this year Detroit has a new General Manager in Brad Holmes and a new Head Coach in Dan Campbell. By all accounts it seems like the two of them are going to be working in tandem to build the team, with Holmes having final say. Because Holmes is new and has never been a GM before we don't have as good a handle on what Holmes looks for in a his players as we did under Quinn. In his time with the Los Angeles Rams as their Director of College Scouting the Rams did draft running backs in the 2nd round a few times, and they were particularly good at finding some gems on defense in the later rounds, like John Johnson III. So for these mock scenarios I'm going to do my best to think like I think Holmes will think.....that's a tongue twister....but ultimately I'll be making a lot of picks with what I think just makes sense given the circumstances.

- Due to the nature of these mock draft simulators being an algorithm and subject to randomness, let's keep in mind that some players may fall in these simulations and be available to me when they probably won't be available for Detroit in real-life. Each site also has their own rankings for the players in the draft, so there will be some variance in that alone. But I'm taking each of these drafts one at a time, as they are, so if a guy like Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah somehow falls to me in the 2nd round in one of these mocks, I won't be passing on him just because I think it's unrealistic for him to fall that far.

- As part of the exercise I will be doing my best to address the needs of the Detroit Lions' roster. After consulting multiple websites to see what they believe Detroit's needs are, I compiled a list and tweaked it a smidge with my own thoughts on what their needs are to give myself a final "Team Needs" list that I'll do my best to address. Positions have been listed in order of most-needed to least-need, and that list of Team Needs will be listed with each scenario as a refresher and so we can see how well (or how poorly) I did in addressing those needs. But let's be honest: the Lions need help everywhere except punter and long snapper. Hell, they even have a need at kicker now. (I won't be drafting a kicker.)

I think we all know that mock drafts are typically fruitless endeavors and usually land somewhere between being 10% to 20% correct since there are just so many variables and random things that can happen in a draft. But as I said, this is for fun. So I'm not worried about my accuracy being judged too harshly.

Ok! Let's get to the mocking!

DETROIT LIONS MOCK DRAFT SCENARIO #2: Trading Down a Little Ways

Team Needs: WR, OT, LB, S, CB, DT, DE, QB, RB, TE (again, everything)

Draft Results:

The first six picks in this mock simulation went slightly different than yesterday's exercise did, but ultimately the same six players were taken in the first six picks.

1.) JAX - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

2.) NYJ - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

3.) SF - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama

4.) ATL - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

5.) CIN - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama

6.) MIA - Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU

I'm skeptical that Waddle and Chase go in that order, but for the sake of this exercise it really doesn't affect what we're going to do as the Lions. The important thing is that Justin Fields and Trey Lance are both available again at 7, and lucky us because that meant we got some trade offers. Let's take a look at those offers real quick:

Carolina: The Panthers offered a 2021 4th round pick (#113 overall) and a 2021 5th round pick (#151 overall) to move up one spot and have Detroit drop down one spot to #8. Not amazing, but not terrible for a one-spot move.

Denver: The Broncos came calling again with a similar offer to what they offered in our last exercise but with a sweetener attached. This time in addition to swapping 1sts and offering their 3rd round pick (71st overall) they also offered a 6th round pick (191st overall). Again this could be a very realistic offer the Lions receive on Thursday night.

New England: And once again the Patriots came calling, ostensibly because they covet one of the two QBs available. This time their offer was actually worse than it was last time. This time they offered a swap of 1sts, their 2nd round pick (46th overall), their 7th round pick (242nd overall), and a 2022 5th round pick. Just......no. No.

And as I said last time, if this were real life I could absolutely see Brad Holmes accepting that offer from Denver. And for the sake of our exercise that's exactly what we're going to do. So I accepted Denver's offer and dropped down two spots to the 9th overall pick and added a Day 2 and a Day 3 pick to my 2021 cache. Not too shabby. Let's look at how it played out.

Round 1 (Pick #10): Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon

After I accept Denver’s offer and trade down to 9, the Broncos took Justin Fields at 7 and the Carolina Panthers took Patrick Surtain II at 8. With Trey Lance, Penei Sewell, Jaycee Horn, Rashawn Slater, and DeVonta Smith still on the board the Dallas Cowboys came calling offering up a 4th round pick to swap one spot with us. Considering I would’ve been happy with any of those aforementioned players on the board, I accepted their deal to pick up an additional Day 3 pick. Dallas took Jaycee Horn (whom I wouldn’t have taken anyway), leaving Penei Sewell sitting right there. This could be one of those dream scenarios for Brad Holmes should it happen in real life.

Round 2 (Pick #41): Landon Dickerson, OL, Alabama

At my second pick I get no trade offers and I’m not looking to trade down again necessarily. Best players available are UNC RB Javonte Williams, Alabama OL Landon Dickerson, Washington DT Levi Onwuzurike (whom we took last time), Purdue WR Rondale Moore, North Dakota State OT Dillon Radunz, a bunch of safeties again, and LSU LB Jabril Cox, who was not available at this point in yesterday’s exercise. The two biggest different names between yesterday’s exercise and today’s are Williams and Dickerson. By no means should the Lions be looking to draft a RB this year, so write Williams off. Dickerson though fits another need along the offensive line where he can line up at center or guard. He does have injury concerns, but when healthy he’s one of the best offensive lineman in the class. So instead of taking Onwuzurike again and instead of slightly reaching for a wide receiver, safety, or Jabril Cox, I opt for Dickerson to double up on the offensive line and see if we can truly settle Detroit’s foundation there. (Yes I know the Lions have Halapoulivaati Vaitai already, but odds are he'll get cut after this season.)

Round 3 (Pick #71): Elijah Molden, CB, Washington

Third round now, and thanks to our trade down with Denver we actually have back-to-back picks at 71 and 72. Regrettably I just missed out on some targets I had in my sights like Western Michigan WR D’Wayne Eskridge, Indiana S Jamar Johnson, and LSU LB Jabril Cox. But no matter, still some good names like Washington CB Elijah Molden, USC WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Oklahoma State WR Tylan Wallace. We also have a couple players we took in yesterday’s exercise available again in UCF S Richie Grant and UNC LB Chazz Surratt. I’m hopeful I can get Grant or Surratt again later with pick 101, so at pick 71 I skip either of those guys and opt for Elijah Molden who should be able to come in and compete with Corn Elder for the starting nickel CB spot from Day One, or move to safety if nickel doesn't work out.

Round 3 (Pick #72): Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, USC

And with pick 72 I decide to not ignore the wide receiver position again like I did last time, so it’s between Wallace and St. Brown. To me it’s a toss-up between the two guys, with Wallace being more of an outside receiver and St. Brown being more of a slot guy. I opt for St. Brown because with Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman ostensibly on the roster to be deep threats in Anthony Lynn’s offense, Detroit could probably use a good slot guy. (Note: I accidentally "selected" St. Brown in the TDN system first, but this is the true order I would've made my picks.)

Round 3 (Pick #101): Alim McNeill, DT, NC State

Chazz Surratt was drafted just before our next pick at 101 by the Tennessee Titans, which takes some wind out of my sails, I won’t lie. I might be able to take a flier on some linebackers later, but Surratt was the last LB I would hope the Lions can get. As it stands, we have a troika of defensive tackles available with LSU’s Tyler Shelvin, NC State’s Alim McNeill, and USC’s Jay Tufele all on the board. We also have some lower grade safeties available and some lower grade cornerbacks available, but at this juncture one of those DT’s is the best value. I opt for McNeill because he had better agility numbers than Tufele, but either one would’ve been a fine pick. (For those familiar with Kent Lee Platte’s “Relative Athletic Score” system, McNeill has a RAS of 8.53 compared to Tufele’s 6.46.)

Round 4 (Pick #112): Monty Rice, LB, Georgia

In the 4th round I’m yet again sniped by the team just ahead of me, as Cincinnati nabs Alabama LB Dylan Moses at pick 111. So for Detroit’s pick at 112 I’m left with two QBs - Stanford’s Davis Mills and Texas A&M’s Kellen Mond - atop the board, along with Memphis RB Kennth Gainwell, Boston College TE Hunter Long, and a smattering of defensive players including Jay Tufele still. But my eye wanders to LB where Georgia’s Monty Rice is rated as The Draft Network’s 159th player, but Pro Football Focus has Rice ranked their 110th best player and The Athletic’s Dane Brugler has him rated a 4th-round grade. Rice isn’t the LB I was hoping to get, but at this juncture I’m happy to take him as he’s the kind of player that could thrive in the Lions’ new defense if given the chance.

Round 4 (Pick #138): Brady White, QB, Memphis (real pick would've been an Edge)

Round 5 (Pick #153): JaCoby Stevens, S, LSU

Round 6 (Pick #191): Josh Palmer, WR, Tennessee

And now it’s at this point that something happened with TDN’s mock draft simulator because it started auto-drafting my picks for me and I’m not sure why. The Tennessee Titans had called in with a trade offer and when I declined their offer the system started running on its own and drafted me Memphis QB Brady White at pick 138 and LSU S JaCoby Stevens at pick 153 before I figured out how to stop it. While I don’t mind the JaCoby Stevens pick, the Brady White pick is something I absolutely would not have done. I would have opted for an edge player like Pittsburgh’s Patrick Jones II or Vanderbilt’s Dayo Odeyingbo with that pick. Oh well. As for Palmer, he’s a big WR with good hands and can go up and get the ball as an outside receiver, so he’s worth the 7th round flier.

OVERVIEW

So overall after trading down not once but twice we ultimately landed who could potentially be the true number one target on the Lions’ draft board, Penei Sewell, to lock down that right tackle position for the foreseeable future. With the additional picks we added Elijah Molden, Josh Palmer, and because of the weird auto-draft situation Brady White, but it really would’ve been an edge in Patrick Jones II or Dayo Odeyingbo. Are those three players worth passing up on Justin Fields at number 7? I’m not so sure, but Detroit certainly does get to add more potential pieces this way. Sewell is a heckuva fish to land at 10th overall so ultimately the other added picks are just gravy. Dickerson, St. Brown, McNeill and Rice are solid if unspectacular draft picks. By no means would this be a sexy draft class, but it could be a foundational one for Brad Holmes new regime.

This is the first of two exercises I'm posting today. Next time we'll trade down even further out of the Top 10 and see what that could maybe do for the Lions. Hope you enjoyed this exercise, and I hope you check out the rest of the week's offerings! Thanks for reading!

COMING LATER TODAY: 

Scenario #3 - Trading Down a Long Ways

COMING TOMORROW: 

The Official Keck Thoughts 2021 Mock Draft

Mocking the Detroit Lions 2021 Draft - Scenario #1: Staying at #7 Pick

As a famous Jedi Knight once said, hello there!

This time last year we were in the very early and scary stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, and I (like most everyone else) had a lot of time on my hands. So I dusted off this sports blog of mine and spent some time doing mock draft exercises in the week leading up to the NFL Draft. I enjoyed it, it seemed like a handful of other people enjoyed it, so I figured I'd do it again this year.

Like last year, you may be asking yourself what these "exercises" are that I'm going to post on the blog. Primarily for my own enjoyment but also to let people see my thoughts (no pun intended) and potentially drive some discussion either here on the blog or elsewhere on social media, I will be doing some mock drafts in a couple different formats.

Each day this week (starting today, Tuesday) leading up to the NFL Draft on Thursday I will be posting a mock draft scenario in an attempt to see what players and situations could be available for the Lions in all 7 rounds of this year's draft. I will be doing three different mocks drafts using just one website this year. What I'm attempting to do is play out three different scenarios for the Lions, pretend like I'm new Lions General Manager Brad Holmes, and draft players that fill out both Detroit's short and long-term needs.

Last year I did three mocks using two different websites - The Draft Network and Pro Football Focus -because I didn't have a paid subscription to TDN and thus couldn't make any draft trades. This year I bit the bullet and paid up, so we'll stick with TDN instead of using PFF as well. (Frankly PFF changed their mock draft simulator where other teams aren't actively offering you trades now, too, which I don't like. So we'll be sticking with TDN which will allow us to have the same draft algorithm for all three exercises.

The schedule of things I'll be posting this week is below.

Tuesday (4/27): Scenario #1 - Staying at Pick #7

Wednesday Morning (4/28): Scenario #2 - Trading Down a Little Ways

Wednesday Afternoon (4/28) Scenario #3 - Trading Down Decently Far

Thursday (4/29): The Official 2021 Keck Thoughts Mock Draft

I think it's worth reinforcing that the mock draft I post on Thursday is what I think will happen, not what I want to happen or would do if I were GM.

Some ground rules for how I'll be performing these mock drafts: 

- Last year I was cosplaying as Bob Quinn, but this year Detroit has a new General Manager in Brad Holmes and a new Head Coach in Dan Campbell. By all accounts it seems like the two of them are going to be working in tandem to build the team, with Holmes having final say. Because Holmes is new and has never been a GM before we don't have as good a handle on what Holmes looks for in a his players as we did under Quinn. In his time with the Los Angeles Rams as their Director of College Scouting the Rams did draft running backs in the 2nd round a few times, and they were particularly good at finding some gems on defense in the later rounds, like John Johnson III. So for these mock scenarios I'm going to do my best to think like I think Holmes will think.....that's a tongue twister....but ultimately I'll be making a lot of picks with what I think just makes sense given the circumstances.

- Due to the nature of these mock draft simulators being an algorithm and subject to randomness, let's keep in mind that some players may fall in these simulations and be available to me when they probably won't be available for Detroit in real-life. Each site also has their own rankings for the players in the draft, so there will be some variance in that alone. But I'm taking each of these drafts one at a time, as they are, so if a guy like Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah somehow falls to me in the 2nd round in one of these mocks, I won't be passing on him just because I think it's unrealistic for him to fall that far.

- As part of the exercise I will be doing my best to address the needs of the Detroit Lions' roster. After consulting multiple websites to see what they believe Detroit's needs are, I compiled a list and tweaked it a smidge with my own thoughts on what their needs are to give myself a final "Team Needs" list that I'll do my best to address. Positions have been listed in order of most-needed to least-need, and that list of Team Needs will be listed with each scenario as a refresher and so we can see how well (or how poorly) I did in addressing those needs. But let's be honest: the Lions need help everywhere except punter and long snapper. Hell, they even have a need at kicker now. (I won't be drafting a kicker.)

I think we all know that mock drafts are typically fruitless endeavors and usually land somewhere between being 10% to 20% correct since there are just so many variables and random things that can happen in a draft. But as I said, this is for fun. So I'm not worried about my accuracy being judged too harshly.

Ok! Now that THAT long introduction is done, let's get to the mocking!

DETROIT LIONS MOCK DRAFT SCENARIO #1: Staying at #7

Team Needs: WR, OT, LB, S, CB, DT, DE, QB, RB, TE (again, everything)

Draft Results:

The first six picks in this mock simulation went (spoiler alert!) exactly how I expect them do this Thursday.

1.) JAX - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

2.) NYJ - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

3.) SF - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama

4.) ATL - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

5.) CIN - Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU

6.) MIA - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama

Not only is this how I expect the first six picks to go, I also happen to think this is a best-case scenario for the Lions. With Justin Fields, Trey Lance, Penei Sewell, DeVonta Smith, and Rashawn Slater still available at a minimum, I would anticipate a number of teams below Detroit to be calling with offers to trade up.

And in fact, in our simulation, three teams did call with trade offers. Those offers were:

Carolina: The Panthers offered a 5th round pick (the 151st overall pick) to swap one spot with us. No thank you.

Denver: The Broncos offered their 3rd round pick (71st overall) for us to drop two spots back. This could be a very realistic offer Detroit could receive Thursday night since Fields and Lance are both still available. In theory the Broncos could want to trade up to snag the QB of those two they prefer, leaving Carolina to take whoever is left if they're also jonesing for a QB.

New England: The Patriots offered their 2021 2nd and 2021 4th round picks (46th and 120th overall,  respectively). Quite frankly if I were the Lions this would be a non-starter for me. There are two QBs available, one of whom New England probably covets, and all Detroit would get for falling far enough back to miss out on all the blue chip prospects is one additional Day 2 pick and one additional Day 3 pick? No thank you. I'd want New England's 3rd round pick instead of the 4th rounder, or even better, just give me your 2022 1st round pick instead of the 2nd and 4th.

If this were real life I could absolutely see Brad Holmes taking that Denver offer. Only dropping two more spots would guarantee Detroit the ability to snag one of that aforementioned group of Fields, Lance, Sewell, or Slater and they'd pick up another Day 2 pick. Not too shabby.

Alas, in this particular scenario we're playing out we're sticking with the pick at #7. And if I were Holmes and Dan Campbell, I'd be doing laps around Allen Park because the 2nd-best QB in the draft just fell into our laps.

Round 1 (Pick #7): Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

I intend to write a wholly separate blog post about this very topic, but in short I'll just say I think the Detroit Lions will absolutely consider and should consider drafting Justin Fields if he falls to them at #7, even though Detroit has Jared Goff and his big contract on hand. I think Fields is the 2nd-best QB prospect in the draft, the kind of player that would probably be drafted 1st overall in most years. And maybe you think Goff has the chance to be the long-term answer for the Lions, but I don't, so I'd be running the card up to the podium to snag a player I think could be the long-term answer at the most important position in the sport. Let Fields sit behind Goff for the 2021 season, then reap the rewards starting in 2022.

It's also worth noting that Brad Holmes and Lions special assistant Chris Spielman both attended Fields' first pro day at Ohio State, and Detroit sent more representatives to Fields' second pro day. If there wasn't some kind of chance they're actually interested in taking him I don't think they would've bothered with both pro days.

(Note: After I made the Fields selection in this simulation the next 7 picks were Penei Sewell, Trey Lance, Patrick Surtain II, Jaycee Horn, DeVonta Smith, Rashawn Slater, and Christian Darrisaw. Had I traded down with New England I would've missed out on all those players, who would have basically been the tier of players I would want one of. Micah Parsons went to New England at 15, but I very much do not want the Lions to take Micah Parsons and have a legitimate concern that they made trade down and take him in the first round. We'll see.)

Round 2 (Pick #41): Levi Onwuzurike, DT, Washington

In the 2nd round, much like the 1st round, the Lions should be open to anything and everything. So at this juncture I'd be looking at taking the Best Player Available while keeping in mind what positions are deeper than others in this draft. On the board I was looking at LSU WR Terrance Marshall, Miami DE Gregory Rousseau, North Dakota State OT Dillon Radunz, Notre Dame OT Liam Eichenberg, Washington DT Levi Onwuzurike, Purdue WR Rondale Moore, UCF S Richie Grant, and others. If you look at various Big Boards you'll see different guys who might be the BPA at this point. Marshall could be the best player available but this is a deep WR draft and I feel like Detroit can get one in Round 3 or later. Radunz would fill a big need at RT but I feel like The Draft Network's rankings has him rated too highly. A safety would fit a big need but there's a tier of players at that position (Grant, Oregon's Jevon Holland, Indiana's Jamar Johnson) that I think we could get in Round 3, too. The player that most looks like BPA and fills a need and is at a relatively thin position group in this draft is Onwuzurike, so he's the pick.

Round 3 (Pick #72): Richie Grant, S, UCF

As I mentioned in the last pick's writeup, I felt like there was a group of safeties that I could get in the 3rd round and I was right. Oregon's Jevon Holland went right before my pick, which left Grant and Indiana's Jamar Johnson as the two best players available at my pick and at a position of need. With both of them all but guaranteed to be gone before my next selection at 101, I did the easy thing and took Grant, who's the higher rated of the two. (Though I do like Johnson, too.) I am going to miss out on probably the last WR that I'd be comfortable taking in the draft, Clemson's Amari Rodgers, but I do believe safety to be the bigger immediate need and Grant is the better player over Rodgers, too.

Round 3 (Pick #101): Chazz Surratt, LB, UNC

At this juncture the best players on the board were Wisconsin-Whitewater OL Quinn Meinerz (who put up a studly pro day), UNC LB Chazz Surratt, Stanford QB Davis Mills, Tennessee OL Trey Smith, Ohio State RB Trey Sermon, and a number of edge rushers. Meinerz could potentially fill a Day One starter spot at right guard if Detroit wanted to move Halapoulivaati Vaitai back to RT, but I'm not sure they want to do that. Surratt on the other hand could be another immediate starting role player (maybe not immediate starter since Jamie Collins and Alex Anzalone will be the starting LBs), but Surratt fits a need and he's one of the best available. He's the pick.

Round 4 (Pick #112): Jordan Smith, Edge, UAB

Going into our Day 3 picks now, we'd love to be able to nab some players who could theoretically start, but we're also open to taking chances on fliers and high-risk/high-reward players. In that vein a guy like UAB DE Jordan Smith is appealing because he could come in as a situational pass rusher and was fairly dominant in Conference-USA, but he also pled no contest to credit card fraud charges while at the University of Florida. It's a red flag, but he'd also be a potential value pick at #112. In a vacuum, Vanderbilt DE Dayo Odeyingbo would be a huge steal here, but the reason he's available here is because he tore his Achilles in January. In theory Detroit could draft and stash him on IR and hope he recovers fully for next season. There was a smattering of secondary players available but I feel like we can wait until Round 5 to take a flier on one of those. So for now, Jordan Smith is the pick to add to the pass rush with the long-term in mind.

Round 5 (Pick #153): Robert Rochell, CB, Central Arkansas

Heading into the 5th round and our final pick of the draft I had my eye on cornerbacks Ambry Thomas of Michigan and Shakur Brown of Michigan State, both guys who could help contribute immediately to Detroit's secondary from day one. But then I noticed the Central Arkansas's Robert Rochell was also still on the board and if he somehow fell to 153 that would be quite the nice pickup as he has some great attributes and could just need some coaching to become a very nice NFL CB. With Detroit employing Aaron Glenn and Audrey Pleasant to oversee the secondary, I think they could potentially work some magic with Rochell.

OVERVIEW

During the course of this simulation I had an inkling that I wasn't landing any offensive players after taking Fields in the first round, but it wasn't until I saw the fully draft class that I realized I had gone entirely defense the rest of the draft. And that's not necessarily a bad thing! Yes Detroit needs WRs and help on the right side of the offensive line, but with each pick I landed a player that I think will be a Day One contributor. These are the kind of building blocks you want to get at the start of a rebuilding process if you're Detroit. I got my long-term QB and I started building up the atrocious defense. I'll take that any day of the week. Would it have been nice to trade down at some point and pick up additional picks? Sure. But after the first round I didn't receive any offers that enticed me enough to miss out on the player available to me at that point. And remember, Detroit currently has two 1st-round picks next year and two 1st-round picks in 2023. This rebuild will take time. Getting who I think will be the next franchise QB was worth not trading down for more picks in this exercise.

With that in mind, my next post I'll be doing another simulation but I'll be trading down to pick up some extra draft capital. I'm not sure what spot I'll be trading down, too, but for this next mock draft I won't be trading down any further than #13 with the Chargers I can tell you that. Hope you enjoyed this exercise, and I hope you check out the rest of the week's offerings! Thanks for reading!

COMING TOMORROW: 

Two posts: Scenario #2 - Trading Down a Little Ways & Scenario #3 - Trading Down a Long Ways